China Articles - March 27, 2022
Friends,
This week’s newsletter of articles and reports on the malign activities of the Chinese Communist Party starts with Stuart Lau’s Politico piece on EU evidence of the PRC’s plans to provide military support to Russia. It appears that Brussels is seriously considering extending sanctions to the PRC if the Party moves forward with material military support.
However, Beijing is already providing support to Moscow. Reuters reports on the efforts Beijing is making to prevent Russia from being expelled from the G20 and Axios explains how the Party continues to amplify the disinformation narrative about U.S. biolabs in Ukraine. And the Chinese judge at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague joined his Russian counterpart as the only two judges to vote against the ICJ’s order for Russia to halt its invasion of Ukraine (#9).
In the Financial Times, Peggy Hollinger warns business leaders with exposure to the PRC to learn the lessons of the exodus from Russia. Investors, C-Suites and Boards should be developing contingency plans to reduce their exposure and mitigate the shocks that could follow from an even greater break in relations with the PRC.
The Sydney Morning Herald published an investigative report into the UN’s dismissal of an Australian judge who was set to rule on a whistleblower case that involved UN agencies turning over the personal details of Chinese dissidents to the PRC Government.
Lastly, while the ‘China Initiative’ ended a month ago, the Justice Department achieved another successful conviction (the 13th successful conviction since the start of the Biden Administration). This case involved a New Jersey man who worked on behalf of the China Association for the International Exchange of Personnel (CAIEP), an agency of the PRC government, to falsify the records of PRC Government employees so that they could qualify for research scholar visas in the United States.
Thanks for reading!
Matt
MUST READ
1. EU has ‘very reliable evidence’ China is considering military support for Russia
Stuart Lau, Politico, March 18, 2022
EU official threatens trade measures against Beijing if the arms’ deliveries go ahead.
EU leaders are in possession of "very reliable evidence" that China is considering military assistance to Russia, a senior EU official told POLITICO, threatening potential trade measures if weapons' deliveries go ahead.
It follows a similar warning from U.S. officials earlier this week that the Russian government had asked China for military equipment and other support, as POLITICO and other media outlets reported. A subsequent Financial Times report said China signaled openness to the request. It is not immediately clear whether the latest EU information derives from the same sources or Europe's own intelligence.
"EU leaders have very reliable evidence that China is considering providing military aid to Russia. All the leaders are very aware of what’s going on," the senior EU official said on condition of anonymity as he was not authorized to speak publicly about confidential information.
He did not say what kind of assistance Moscow had requested.
"We are concerned about the fact that China is flirting with the Russians," he added. The EU will "impose trade barriers against China" should Beijing proceed with Russia's request, he said, as "this is the only language Beijing understands."
The EU-China summit, scheduled for April 1 with President Xi Jinping, will go on as scheduled, as confirmed in a meeting with all EU countries' top representatives in Brussels on Friday.
2. Russia's Putin gets Chinese backing to stay in G20
Angie Teo and Stanley Widianto, Reuters, March 23, 2022
Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to attend the next G20 summit in Indonesia later this year and received valuable backing from Beijing on Wednesday in a pushback to suggestions by some members that Russia could be barred from the group.
3. Beijing doubles down on Ukraine biolab disinformation
Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian, Axios, March 21, 2022
Chinese officials are pushing a debunked conspiracy theory promoted by the Russian military that the U.S. is funding biological weapons research in Ukraine.
Why it matters: As the West has pushed to isolate Putin, "China has insistently sought to shift the focus to the question of U.S. biological weapons labs in Ukraine," David Bandurski at China Media Project writes.
4. Foreign businesses in China need to heed the lessons of Russian exodus
Peggy Hollinger, Financial Times, March 23, 2022
The attempt by US president Joe Biden last week to extract a promise from China’s leader Xi Jinping not to give material support to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was always going to be a log shot. The fact that after two hours it ended with little more than mutual threats of sanctions should be a wake-up call to foreign businesses operating in China.
5. Australian judge accuses UN of ‘coup d’etat’ after dismissal from case involving Chinese dissidents
Josh Feldman and Eryk Bagshaw, Sydney Morning Herald, March 21, 2022
Australian judge Rowan Downing, QC, has accused the United Nations of an “attack upon the independence of the judiciary” and a coup d’etat after he was removed from the case of a whistleblower who had accused the global body of passing on information to Beijing about Chinese dissidents.
Downing, past President of the UN Dispute Tribunal and a former international war crimes judge, oversaw the case of Emma Reilly, a UN human rights officer-turned whistleblower, after she accused her employer of handing Beijing the names of Uighur and other Chinese dissidents set to speak at the UN Human Rights Council.
Downing had his appointment terminated by the UN in July 2019 before he could release his final judgments on Reilly’s case.
He said that his two judgments relating to Reilly’s case in the internal UN Dispute Tribunal were “within 10 days of being released” when he was dismissed in 2019 and this “was probably known to management”. The 69-year-old’s comments during the hearings were critical of Reilly’s treatment by the UN.
“It’s the sort of conduct that happens possibly following a coup – a coup d’etat – where people want to get rid of judges quickly,” Downing said of his dismissal. “It was, in fact, an attack upon the independence of the judiciary because… no nation-state would be able to acceptably do that.”
China has put the UN at the centre of its global diplomacy plans. Beijing is now the UN’s second-largest financier, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres was the guest of honour alongside Vladimir Putin at the Beijing Winter Olympics and China won the support of dozens of countries in the General Assembly for its policies in Hong Kong and Xinjiang in 2020.
Downing’s comments were first made in an interview in March last year but can only now be made public by The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age. China has spent the past decade steadily building its influence within the United Nations and now controls three of its top agency posts, while the United States leads four.
The UN has been criticised by human rights groups for not being able to get independent inspectors into Xinjiang and for failing to pass Security Council resolutions addressing allegations of human rights abuse in China.
In his first judgment, Downing ruled partially in Reilly’s favour, ordering an investigation into her “complaint of abuse of authority”, while also criticising Guterres’ handling of her case. Guterres, Downing said, failed to properly address Reilly’s complaint and unlawfully deferred the UN’s consideration of the matter.
Downing said to his knowledge and that of “anybody else in the organisation” with whom he discussed the issue, Reilly’s case is “the only [whistleblower] case … where the Secretary-General had personally intervened”.
Downing said Guterres, through his chief of staff, initially intervened in the case to address Reilly’s concerns.
During the hearing, Downing criticised senior figures within UN management for putting a “spin on what has occurred, such that the applicant [Reilly] is being portrayed as an unreasonable person, and that concerns me”.
UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric rejected claims that Guterres had personally intervened in Reilly’s case.
Asked to respond to Downing’s claim that Guterres had unlawfully deferred the UN’s consideration of the matter, Dujarric said “we reject Judge Downing’s claim outright.”
Reilly discovered the UN’s practice of handing over the identities of Chinese dissidents in 2013 after China’s Geneva delegation requested a list of names set to speak at the UN Human Rights Council, including Dolkun Isa, the head of the World Uighur Congress. The congress is the peak global advocacy group for the Muslim minority in the northwestern Chinese region of Xinjiang.
The Chinese government has threatened dissidents’ families for speaking out about conditions in the region where up to 1 million Uighurs have reportedly been put through re-education camps in what the US has labelled a genocide. Beijing says the claims are part of a groundless “Western smear campaign”.
Speaking to Britain’s LBC Radio in 2020, Reilly claimed that once Beijing receives the names of dissidents set to speak at upcoming Human Rights Council sessions, it “uses that information to… harass these peoples’ families that are still based in China”.
In an internal email in February 2013, Reilly suggested her colleagues reject Beijing’s request, “as we did for the Turkish mission before the last session”. That suggestion was ignored and Reilly began speaking out internally. She said she was subsequently “ostracised, publicly defamed” and “deprived of functions”.
The 43-year-old then reported the practice to Uighur organisations, international NGOs and the European Union delegation later that year. In 2017, she spoke to the media for the first time. Reilly remained employed by the UN while undertaking legal action over her treatment before being formally dismissed in 2021 for “having engaged in unauthorised communications with external parties in relation to issues concerning the official activities of the organisation”.
Dujarric said the UN did not continue to share activists’ names with the Chinese government. “It is unacceptable for human rights defenders to face reprisals for co-operating with or sharing information with the UN,” he said.
Wang Huiyao, the founder of the Centre for China and Globalisation, a think tank that often advises the Chinese government, said allegations of genocide in Xinjiang were “totally untrue” and that Chinese security services monitored some Uighurs to stop terrorist attacks.
“Every country has a few dissidents,” Dr Wang said in a phone interview from Beijing. “In Xinjiang, everything’s very normal, very healthy, and its economy is probably having its best time at the moment.”
In the two years between Reilly’s first judgment and her dismissal, China secured one of five seats on the panel that picks UN human rights abuse rapporteurs. It now controls the top positions in three of the UN’s agencies across agriculture, telecommunications, and aviation. Since February, Beijing has been using its votes on the UN security council and UN courts to block or abstain from votes critical of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Former US assistant secretary of state Jeffrey Feltman said China had shifted its focus from the UN’s development activities.
“China now flexes its muscles in the heart of the UN, its peace and security work,” he said in research for the Brookings Institute.
China has repeatedly referred to the 53 partners, including Pakistan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, that voted to support its actions in Hong Kong and 65 who backed its human rights record in Xinjiang in 2020 as evidence that it had the support of members in the General Assembly. Dozens of other countries, including Australia, the United Kingdom and the US condemned its crackdowns in the two regions.
Wang said Beijing was not trying to influence the UN but “co-operate with it”.
“I think that the fundamental difference between China and the West is values. So-called Western democracies have their own system and China has its own democracy system,” he said.
“China is so big, the largest communist country and the world’s second-largest economy. Western countries are not doing that well, but China is doing well, hitting its KPIs and every year is adding almost an economy the size of Australia to its GDP.
“I can see if this is not properly explained people feel threatened.”
U.S. Department of Justice, March 23, 2022
A federal jury convicted a New Jersey man for his involvement in a conspiracy to fraudulently obtain U.S. visas for Chinese government employees.
According to court documents and evidence presented at trial, Zhongsan Liu, 59, of Fort Lee, participated in a scheme to fraudulently procure J-1 research scholar visas for employees of the government of the of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to enable them to unlawfully work for the PRC government in the United States and to conceal that unlawful work from the United States and its agencies.
Liu operated an office of the China Association for the International Exchange of Personnel (CAIEP), an agency of the PRC government, in Fort Lee, New Jersey. Among other activities, CAIEP engages in talent-recruitment for the benefit of the PRC, including recruiting U.S. scientists, academics, engineers and other experts to work in China.
AUTHORITARIANISM
7. Ukraine: a year after sanctions, EU-China ties face new ‘defining moment’ on Russia
Finbarr Bermingham, South China Morning Post, March 21, 2022
8. How a Book About America’s History Foretold China’s Future
Chang Che, The New Yorker, March 21, 2022
In 1989, a young Chinese academic spent six months travelling in the United States. His insights are now central to Xi Jinping’s cultural crackdown.
…
Of the numerous Western writers referenced in his book, Wang seemed to identify most with the conservative philosopher Allan Bloom. Drawing on the central thesis of Bloom’s best-selling jeremiad “The Closing of the American Mind,” Wang lampooned a “generation of youths ignorant of traditional Western values.” “There’s a sense of moral panic that runs through the book,” Matt Johnson, a visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution who has written extensively on Wang, told me.
“He senses cultural decay all around him and there’s some strong reactions there.” Wang’s affinity for Bloom grew out of his own experience. In the sixties, as the Soviet Union began forsaking Stalinism, and U.S. foreign policy pivoted to the subversive tactic of “peaceful evolution,” Mao Zedong came to see the greatest threat against him as insufficient faith in his movement.
An entire generation of Chinese leaders, forged in the crucible of the Cultural Revolution, came to associate the survival of a political system with the faith that people had in it, and faith was kept up through traditions—what Wang called the “cultural gene.” In “America Against America,” Wang asked, “If the value system collapses, how can the social system be sustained?”
9. UN international court of justice orders Russia to halt invasion of Ukraine
Julian Borger, The Guardian, March 16, 2022
The UN’s international court of justice (ICJ) in The Hague has ordered Russia to halt its invasion of Ukraine, saying the court had not seen any evidence to support the Kremlin’s justification for the war, that Ukraine was committing genocide against Russian-speakers in the east of the country.
The court ruled by 13 votes to two for a provisional order that “the Russian Federation shall immediately suspend military operations that it commenced on 24 February 2022 in the territory of Ukraine”. Only the Russian and Chinese judges on the court voted against the order.
10. Chinese internet chatter on the Ukraine war is a warped lens
Yi-Ling Liu, Rest of the World, March 22, 2022
Days after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, eyes turned to the Chinese internet, scouring social media for clues. How would China — not only the state, but its people — respond to a war started by the nation’s chief “strategic partner?” With no reliable polling, you’d imagine that social media might be a useful gauge for both. The reality is more complicated.
Social media provides a warped lens into public sentiment. This is no less true in China, where, over the past decade, the systematic suppression of liberal voices on social media — and the amplification of nationalist ones — has provided the oxygen for patriotic accounts to run rampant.
In the early days of the war in Ukraine, when Chinese state media remained muted and cautious, people like ultranationalist commentator Sima Nan were quick to jump into the fray. They vehemently criticized American hypocrisy, argued in support of war, and saw Russia’s actions as justified pushback against NATO. A translation of one Putin speech was so widely shared that the Weibo hashtag #putin1000wordsspeechfulltext received 1.1 billion views in a day.
11. China’s Russia embrace triggers Congress blowback
Phelim Kine, Politico ChinaWatcher, March 24, 2022
12. China has honed its justifications for taking Russia’s side
The Economist, March 26, 2022
Deflection and anti-Americanism underpin China’s argument
ENVIRONMENTAL HARMS
13. Beijing ‘doubling down on fossil fuels’; China’s CO2 emissions increase; Coal production growth
Carbon Brief, March 17, 2022
Chinese leaders are “doubling down on fossil fuels” amid “growing” fears of global energy shortages and “rising” concerns of an economic slump, according to Bloomberg. The news came after the Chinese government repeatedly underlined the importance of energy security at a series of key political meetings last week.
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said last week that China was the main driving force behind a global CO2 emissions “rebound” past pre-pandemic levels. Separately, an energy advisor to the Chinese government told state TV that China’s CO2 emissions had grown by 350m tonnes last year, more than double the average annual increase in recent years.
14. Climate Impact from China’s Coal Push Visible from Space
Aaron Clark, Bloomberg, March 20, 2022
A powerful cloud of methane was caught by satellite for the first time in a remote corner of Inner Mongolia, where China is boosting production of the dirtiest fossil fuel.
15. China’s aggressive illegal fishing hurting world’s marine resources
The Print, March 17, 2022
A new report titled “Sink or Swim: The Future of Fisheries in the East and the South China Sea”, the overexploitation of marine resources would lead to irreparable economic and biological losses, reported International Forum For Right And Security (IFFRAS).
China has been the worst offender in the 2021 IUU Fishing index, which maps illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing in 152 coastal countries. Chinese ships can be found everywhere in the world.
The big vessels not only catch illegally, overexploit the marine resources but also leave a little for local boats by scooping up a major haul of fish. The problem of Chinese distant water overfishing has spread to the Pacific, South America, and Western Africa, reported IFFRAS.
An armada of Chinese fishing vessels is encroaching territorial waters far away from China to find seafood, which has raised alarm even in friendly countries like Argentina and Mexico.
16. Chinese IUU fishing is destabilizing maritime security
Joseph Hammond, Taiwan News, March 24, 2022
17. Report: China’s seafood demand overstated, with most imports processed and reexported
Mark Godfrey, Seafood Source, March 21, 2022
A study of China’s seafood sector suggests Chinese demand for seafood is overstated and that China’s reexports account for 75 percent of the country’s seafood imports.
Authored by a joint U.S.-Norwegian group of academic economists and scientists and titled, “China’s seafood imports – Not for domestic consumption?” the report found China’s seafood-processing sector, based on low cost and scale accounts, threatens the sustainability of the seafood industry elsewhere by facilitating mislabeling.
18. Fish crimes in the global oceans
Dyhia Belhabib and Philippe Le Billon, Science Advances, March 23, 2022
FOREIGN INTERFERENCE AND COERCION
19. VIDEO – China amplifies Russian narrative of Ukraine war
Deustche Welle, March 21, 2022
20. ‘A blatant lie’: China and Taiwan fight for credit over rescue of sailors lost at sea for 29 days
Leanne Jorari, Helen Livingstone and Kate Lyons, The Guardian, March 22, 2022
21. Belt and Road Comes to the Heartland: The Peculiar Story of Fufeng Group and Grand Forks
Fortis Analysis, January 10, 2022
22. Belt and Road Comes to the Heartland (Pt. 2): More Details Emerge on Fufeng Group
Fortis Analysis, March 20, 2022
23. Chinese Officer Charged with Harassing N.Y. Congressional Candidate
Rebecca Davis O’Brien, New York Times, March 16, 2022
Yan Xiong, a Chinese dissident who immigrated to America and is now a political candidate in New York, was targeted by an agent of the Chinese government, federal prosecutors said.
HUMAN RIGHTS AND RELIGIOUS PERSECUTION
24. A Transgender Woman Was Killed in Wuhan. The CCP’s Reaction: Hiding the Facts
Chen Tao, Bitter Winter, March 21, 2022
Those who were posting news and comments about the homicide on Weibo were threatened, as the authorities try to hide the existence of hate crimes in China.
25. US expands travel bans on Chinese officials accused of persecuting ethnic and religious minorities
South China Morning Post, March 22, 2022
26. UK considering ban on NHS procurement of Chinese goods made in Xinjiang
Patrick Wintour, The Guardian, March 20, 2022
27. Lords unite to challenge China’s forced organ harvesting
Lord Reibero, The Conservative Woman, March 23, 2022
INDUSTRIAL POLICIES AND ECONOMIC ESPIONAGE
28. Isaac Stone Fish on Self-Censorship and Engagement with China
Jordyn Haime, The Wire China, March 20, 2022
29. After China avows market stability, investors want proof
Kevin Buckland, Reuters, March 16, 2022
30. Globalisation and autocracy are locked together. For how much longer?
The Economist, March 19, 2022
31. China’s Stock Market Weathers Heavy Foreign Outflows
Rebecca Feng, Wall Street Journal, March 24, 2022
Foreign investors have unloaded $9.5 billion of mainland Chinese stocks this month, reflecting a reassessment of geopolitical risk following the financial isolation of Russia.
32. Nickel Short Saga Raises Questions About China’s Interference in International Markets
Dennis Kwok and Sam Goodman, The Diplomat, March 23, 2022
33. U.S. Export Controls and China
Karen Sutter and Christopher Casey, Congressional Research Service, March 24, 2022
CYBER AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
34. U.S. FCC adds Russia's Kaspersky, China telecom firms to national security threat list
David Shepardson, Reuters, March 25, 2022
The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) on Friday added Russia's AO Kaspersky Lab, China Telecom (Americas) Corp (0728.HK) and China Mobile International USA (0941.HK) to its list of communications equipment and service providers deemed threats to U.S. national security.
The regulator last year designated five Chinese companies including Huawei Technologies Co (HWT.UL) and ZTE Corp (000063.SZ) as the first firms on the list, which was mandated under a 2019 law. Kaspersky is the first Russian company listed.
FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr said the new designations "will help secure our networks from threats posed by Chinese and Russian state-backed entities seeking to engage in espionage and otherwise harm America’s interests."
35. China’s Information Dark Age Could Be Russia’s Future
Li Yuan, New York Times, March 18, 2022
Russia and China have the tendency to learn the worst from each other: tyrants, famines, purges and, now, internet censorship.
36. A Secretive US security program has its sights on DiDi
Ben Brody, Protocol, March 23, 2022
MILITARY AND SECURITY THREATS
37. China has fully militarized three islands in South China Sea, US admiral says
The Guardian, March 20, 2022
38. China moves to dominate Pacific with U.S. mired in Ukraine
Cleo Paskal, The Sunday Guardian, March 12, 2022
China is serious about capturing Taiwan as they need it to break the first island chain. At the same time, Beijing is using political warfare to try to burrow into the second and third island chains.
39. Solomon Islands considers security cooperation with China – official
Kristy Needham, Reuters, March 24, 2022
The Solomon Islands has signed a policing deal with China and will send a proposal for a broader security agreement covering the military to its cabinet for consideration, an official of the Pacific island nation's government said on Thursday.
40. DJI Tells Ukraine It Can’t Disable Drones Used by Russian Military
Fang Zuwang and ding Yi, Caixin, March 23, 2022
ONE BELT, ONE ROAD STRATEGY
41. Ai Weiwei on the new Silk Road: ‘This is China’s counterattack in a global game of chess’
Ai Weiwei, The Guardian, March 19, 2022
42. China-Europe Rail Lines Become Supply Chain’s Latest Problem
Kyunghee Park, Bloomberg, March 22, 2022
OPINION PIECES
43. Xi Jinping’s Faltering Foreign Policy
Jude Blanchette, Foreign Affairs, March 16, 2022
What might this new era look like? On a practical level, it will feature the continued marginalization of the government’s externally facing bodies. Consider the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. On paper, the MFA should be a vital conduit for understanding the actions and the intentions of China’s senior leadership on foreign policy. Indeed, this is why the MFA’s daily press conference was historically seen as important, as it was one of the few windows outside observers had into Beijing’s thinking.
In practice, however, the MFA is increasingly scrambling to interpret signals coming down from Xi’s office, as evidenced by its frequently shifting day-to-day talking points on the Ukrainian crisis. The same dynamic exists within the Taiwan Affairs Office, which is, on paper at least, responsible for cross-strait policy. It has become apparent in recent years that the TAO is often blindsided by Xi’s decisions and left scrambling to both interpret and then implement his policies.
It will be important to understand the functional realities of such bureaucratic marginalization moving forward, as statements by the Chinese government may not always accurately reflect Xi’s views. More important than traditional bureaucracies will be opaque and secretive bodies such as the National Security Commission and the various “leading small groups” that Xi commands.
44. China Can’t Handle the Truth
Richard Bernstein, The Wire China, March 20, 2022
Because the truth is that Ukraine is a country whose demands represent the democratically-expressed will of its people.
45. Beijing’s dreams of a stronger role for the yuan are coming true
Gerard Lyons, Times of London, 2022
46. West ‘naive’ to think China will abandon Russia over Ukraine
Didi Tang, Times of London, March 21, 2022
47. Will China's “Common Prosperity” Survive Putin’s War?
George Magnus, Project Syndicate, March 21, 2022
48. Relying on China has become too risky a business
Elisabeth Braw, Times of London, March 21, 2022
49. The Return of Pax Americana?
Michael Beckley and Hal Brands, Foreign Affairs, March 14, 2022
The United States and its allies have failed to prevent Russia from brutalizing Ukraine, but they can still win the larger struggle to save the international order. Russia’s savage invasion has exposed the gap between Western countries’ soaring liberal aspirations and the paltry resources they have devoted to defend them. The United States has declared great-power competition on Moscow and Beijing but has so far failed to summon the money, the creativity, or the urgency necessary to prevail in those rivalries. Yet Russian President Vladimir Putin has now inadvertently done the United States and its allies a tremendous favor. In shocking them out of their complacency, he has given them a historic opportunity to regroup and reload for an era of intense competition—not just with Russia but also with China—and, ultimately, to rebuild an international order that just recently looked to be headed for collapse.
This isn’t fantasy: it has happened before. In the late 1940s, the West was entering a previous period of great-power competition but had not made the investments or initiatives needed to win it. U.S. defense spending was pathetically inadequate, NATO existed only on paper, and neither Japan nor West Germany had been reintegrated into the free world. The Communist bloc seemed to have the momentum. Then, in June 1950, an instance of unprovoked authoritarian aggression—the Korean War—revolutionized Western politics and laid the foundation for a successful containment strategy. The policies that won the Cold War and thereby made the modern liberal international order were products of an unexpected hot war. The catastrophe in Ukraine could play a similar role today.
Putin’s aggression has created a window of strategic opportunity for Washington and its allies. The democracies must now undertake a major multilateral rearmament program and erect firmer defenses—military and otherwise—against the coming wave of autocratic aggression. They must exploit the current crisis to weaken the autocrats’ capacity for coercion and subversion and deepen the economic and diplomatic cooperation among liberal states around the globe. The invasion of Ukraine signals a new phase in an intensifying struggle to shape the international order. The democratic world won’t have a better chance to position itself for success.