China Articles - October 10, 2021
Friends,
This week the Chinese Communist Party intensified its campaign of threats and coercion against Taiwan. In the three days after the PRC’s National Day (October 1st), Beijing sent 148 warplanes into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone. The Party’s goal is to annex Taiwan and end its de facto independence, since the existence of a prosperous and democratic Taiwan gives lie to Beijing’s narrative that the Chinese people can only succeed under a one-party dictatorship.
For if the 23 million Chinese on Taiwan can transition from one-party authoritarian rule to a successful democracy with one of the most open civil societies, then why can’t the rest of the Chinese people.
It appears increasingly clear that Xi Jinping is intent on annexing Taiwan during his rule which would likely spark a wider conflict as the United States, Japan, Australia, France, and other countries signal their support for democratic Taiwan and maintaining peace in East Asia.
While there are many important differences between the first Cold War and the situation we face today, one important continuity is the role that deterrence will play in maintaining the peace. As long as the Party elite in Beijing understand that their decision to initiate a conflict will result in a global conflict, pitting the PRC against much of the rest of the world, I am optimistic that they will avoid that destructive path.
Thanks for reading!
Matt
MUST READ
1. Taiwan and the Fight for Democracy
Tsai Ing-wen
Foreign Affairs, October 05, 2021
“The story of Taiwan is one of resilience,” writes Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen as she rallies the international community to the cause of democracy amidst unprecedented Chinese aggression against the island. President Tsai argues that Taiwanese democracy has never been stronger despite rising authoritarianism around the world and close to its shores. The Chinese Communist Party’s threat to use force to annex Taiwan is galvanizing the Taiwanese people.
2. In a Surge of Military Flights, China Tests and Warns Taiwan
Chris Buckley and Amy Qin
New York Times, October 03, 2021
As Beijing observed its National Day holiday, a record number of Chinese military aircraft entered Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). The incursions by nearly 80 PLA aircraft underscore warnings from the Chinese Communist Party that it intends to annex Taiwan by force unless the country concedes to Beijing’s demands for capitulation.
3. U.S. Troops Have Been Deployed in Taiwan for at Least a Year
Gordon Lubold, Wall Street Journal, October 7, 2021
For over a year, U.S. troops have been training with their Taiwanese counterparts in Taiwan in order to improve their ability to resist aggression by Beijing and improve interoperability between the United States and Taiwan. The Wall Street Journal reports as if this were a revelation, but there have been multiple reports across media and the release of photos and videos by the United States and Taiwan over the past year that this training has been happening in a routine fashion.
Le Monde, October 5, 2021 — ORIGINAL IN FRENCH
5. Former Australian PM Abbott calls for solidarity with Taiwan
Huizhong Wu
Associated Press, October 8, 2021
A former Australian prime minister accused China of being a bully and expressed enthusiastic support for Taiwan while visiting the democratically ruled island on Friday.
“Nothing is more pressing right now than solidarity with Taiwan,” former Prime Minister Tony Abbott said at a conference.
China’s government has been seeking to isolate Taiwan, which it claims as its own territory. It has stepped up military harassment of the island by flying fighter jets toward Taiwan, with a particularly large number of flights this past week.
6. China's Shell Game
David Barboza
The Wire China, October 04, 2021
Documents from the Pandora Papers highlight the immense amount of Chinese capital concealed in murky offshore accounts. Chinese firms and their executives have established numerous offshore financial vehicles which they have used to secure access to global markets while stashing money beyond the reach of regulatory authorities in Beijing. In many cases, these executives are Chinese Communist Party officials themselves or are stashing money on behalf of Part elites.
7. Les Opérations D’Influence Chinoises [Chinese Influence Operations]
Paul Charon and Jean-Baptiste Jeangéne Vilmer
Institut de Recherche Stratégique de L’École Militaire, September 2021 — ORIGINAL IN FRENCH
IRSEM, the French strategic research institute within their Ministry of Defense, released a report on Chinese influence and political interference operations.
[GOOGLE TRANSLATE] For a long time, it was said that China, unlike Russia, sought more to be loved than feared; that she wanted to seduce, to project a positive image of herself in the world, to arouse admiration. Beijing has not given up on seducing, its attractiveness and its ambition to shape international standards, and it remains essential for the Communist Party not to "lose face". But, at the same time, Beijing is increasingly assuming to infiltrate and coerce: its influence operations have hardened considerably in recent years and its methods increasingly resemble those employed by Moscow. It is a "Machiavellian moment" in the sense that the Party-State now seems to believe that, as Machiavelli wrote in The Prince, "it is safer to be feared than to be loved".
This report focuses on this development, with the ambition to cover the entire spectrum of influence, from the most benign (public diplomacy) to the most malignant, that is to say interference (clandestine activities). To do this, it proceeds in four parts, presenting successively the main concepts; the actors implementing these operations, in particular Base 311 of the People's Liberation Army; the actions taken by Beijing with regard to the diasporas, the media, diplomacy, the economy, politics, education, think tanks and in terms of information manipulation, among other levers; and finally some case studies (Taiwan, Singapore, Sweden, Canada, and operations targeting Hong Kong protesters in 2019 or trying to make people believe in the American origin of Covid-19 in 2020). The conclusion comes back to this "Russianization", which has three components: Beijing is inspired by Moscow in several registers, there are obviously differences between the two, and there is also a certain degree of cooperation. Finally, the report assesses the effectiveness of this new Chinese posture which can be proud of certain tactical successes, but constitutes a strategic failure.
AUTHORITARIANISM
8. The Evergrande Cliff
Andrew Peaple
The Wire China, October 04, 2021
9. RTHK issues new editorial guidelines
Radio Television Hong Kong, September 29, 2021
10. Hong Kong’s ‘BBC’ ordered to support China national security
Matt Mathers
The Independent, September 29, 2021
11. Empty Buildings in China’s Provincial Cities Testify to Evergrande Debacle
Yoko Kubota and Liyan Qi
Wall Street Journal, October 04, 2021
12. The Party Politics Driving Xi Jinping
Barry Naughton
The Wire China, October 04, 2021
13. Countdown Starts on Chinese Company Delistings After Long U.S.-China Audit Fight
Dawn Lim in New York and Jing Yang in Hong Kong
Wall Street Journal, October 02, 2021
14. China is Rocked by Uncertainty. Why is Wall Street Bullish?
Li Yuan
New York Times, October 06, 2021
15. BBC sounds alarm on Beijing’s plan to rewrite internet rules
James Titcomb
The Telegraph, October 03, 2021
16. China blocks WeChat protests over Evergrande
Hamzah Khalique-Loonat
Sunday Times, September 29, 2021
17. China's property sector default woes deepen amid Evergrande disquiet
Clare Jim, Tom Westbrook, Marc Jones
Reuters, October 05, 2021
18. China’s TMZ comes for politics, then censors come for it
David Pierce
Protocol, October 04, 2021
19. Hong Kong internet access blocked to online Tiananmen Museum
Kenji Kawase
Nikkei Asia, September 29, 2021
20. Another Chinese real estate developer misses a payment.
Alexandra Stevenson
New York Times, October 05, 2021
21. Hong Kong seeks to resurrect legislation to further crush dissent
Helen Davidson
The Guardian, September 30, 2021
22. How bad is China’s energy crisis?
Phillip Inman
The Guardian, September 29, 2021
23. Why China Is Alienating the World
Peter Martin
Foreign Affairs, October 06, 2021
24. Japan’s GPIF Pension Fund Won’t Buy China’s Sovereign Debt
Shoko Oda, Emi Urabe, and Keiko Ujikane
Bloomberg, September 28, 2021
25. Ping An and the Wen Family
Eliot Chen
The Wire China, October 04, 2021
ENVIRONMENTAL HARMS
26. Making Sense of China’s Pledge to Stop Building Coal-Fired Power Plants Abroad
Jennifer Hillman and David Sacks
Council on Foreign Relations, October 4, 2021
27. Even the Dirtiest Coal Is Surging Due to China’s Power Crunch
Serene Cheong and Alfred Chan
Bloomberg, September 30, 2021
28. China Orders Banks to Ramp Up Funding to Boost Coal Output
Bloomberg, October 4, 2021
FOREIGN INTERFERENCE AND COERCION
29. Lithuania vs. China: A Baltic Minnow Defies a Rising Superpower
Andrew Higgins
New York Times, September 30, 2021
30. White House calls for ‘new course’ on China trade ties
David J. Lynch
Washington Post, October 04, 2021
31. China’s Successful Foray into Asymmetric Lawfare
Julian Ku
Lawfare, September 29, 2021
32. IMF board to grill investigators, Georgieva on data-rigging claims this week, sources say
David Lawder
Reuters, October 04, 2021
33. The Fight Against China’s Bribe Machine
Nicholas Barile
Foreign Affairs, October 05, 2021
34. One Belt One Voice: Chinese Media in Italy
Francesca Ghiretti and Lorenzo Mariani
Istituto Affari Internazionali, October 2021
35. ‘Russianization’ of China? French military think tank says Beijing borrowing from Moscow playbook
Silvia Amaro
CNBC, September 29, 2021
36. China’s ambassador warns Belgian lawmakers debating Hong Kong resolutions
Finbarr Bermingham
South China Morning Post, October 01, 2021
Rick Scott
Office of United States Senator Rick Scott, September 30, 2021
38. US celebrates ‘win’ as Britain looks to push China out of nuclear energy sites
Anna Isaac
The Guardian, September 29, 2021
39. Calls grow for ouster of Wuhan lab-tied Daszak as head of NYC health nonprofit
Samuel Chamberlain
New York Post, October 02, 2021
40. Translating Tension: Chinese-language media in Australia
Fan Yang
Lowy Institute, September 29, 2021
41. Helena Morrissey attacks HSBC's attempts to 'ingratiate' bank with Chinese Communist Party
Lucy Burton
The Telegraph, October 04, 2021
HUMAN RIGHTS AND RELIGIOUS PERSECUTION
42. Beijing Olympics open in 4 months; human rights talk absent
Stephen Wade
Associated Press, October 4, 2021
43. ‘There’s cameras everywhere’: testimonies detail far-reaching surveillance of Uyghurs in China
Johana Bhuiyan
The Guardian, September 30, 2021
44. Alleged reprisals and intimidation against 240 who cooperated with UN
United Nations News, September 29, 2021
45. Uyghur Family Fortunes Mysteriously Reappear for Auction
Ruth Ingram
Bitter Winter, October 06, 2021
46. Chinese detective in exile reveals torture inflicted on Uyghurs
Rebecca Wright, Ivan Watson, Zahid Mahmood and Tom Booth
CNN, October 4, 2021
INDUSTRIAL POLICIES AND ECONOMIC ESPIONAGE
47. China manufacturing activity contracts as power shortages bite
William Langley
Financial Times, September 30, 2021
48. Industrial policy, but for the whole society
Andrew Batson
Independent Blog Post, September 29, 2021
49. Japan’s new PM creates Cabinet-level role to manage economic threat from China
Martin Greene
Taiwan News, October 4, 2021
50. Cambridge sets guidelines to reduce overseas engagement risks
Bethan Staton
Financial Times, October 01, 2021
51. U.S. needs to work with Europe to slow China's innovation rate, Raimondo says
Amanda Macias,Kayla Tausche
CNBC, September 28, 2021
CYBER AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
52. China unveils plan to bring algorithms under state control
Xinmei Shen and Tracy Qu
South China Morning Post, September 29, 2021
53. China to bar overseas transfer of ‘core’ industrial, telecoms data
Xinmei Shen
South China Morning Post, October 01, 2021
54. Can SMIC lead China’s semiconductor self-reliance dream?
Saranya
Observer Research Foundation, October 4, 2021
55. Huawei, ZTE to supply China Mobile’s converged 5G and 4G network
Jane Zhang
South China Morning Post, October 05, 2021
56. Zoom and Five9 drop US$14.7 billion merger after US security review
Chad Bray
South China Morning Post, October 01, 2021
MILITARY AND SECURITY THREATS
57. Indonesia, China go toe-to-toe in gas-rich Natunas
John McBeth
Asia Times, September 28, 2021
58. DoD trying to keep China from accessing critical U.S. space technology
Sandra Erwin
Space News, September 30, 2021
59. China’s naval expansion and the challenges for India
Angad Singh
Observer Research Foundation, September 29, 2021
60. Chinese Military Dynamics and Evolving Strategy: Graphic Net Assessment
Anthony H. Cordesman
Center for Strategic and International Studies, October 4, 2021
Ned Price
United States Department of State, October 3, 2021
62. Is Another ‘Friction Point’ Emerging Along the India-China Border?
Sudha Ramachandran
The Diplomat, October 4, 2021
63. Taiwan president warns of ‘catastrophic consequences’ if island falls to China
Helen Davidson
The Guardian, October 05, 2021
64. ‘The Strategy of Denial’ Review: Will China Take Taiwan?
Dan Blumenthal
Wall Street Journal, September 19, 2021
65. China Will Have Capacity For ‘Full-Scale Invasion’ of Taiwan by 2025: Defense Minister
Hwang Chun-mei
Radio Free Asia, October 6, 2021
66. China mounts largest incursion yet near Taiwan, blames U.S. for tensions
Ben Blanchard and Yimou Lee
Reuters, October 4, 2021
67. Japan signals more active role on China's tough stand on Taiwan
Sakura Murakami and Kiyoshi Takenaka
Reuters, October 5, 2021
68. U.S. suspends authority to ship nuclear materials to China's CGN
Timothy Gardner
Reuters, October 5, 2021
69. China military watch
Eli Huang
Australian Strategic Policy Institute, October 1, 2021
ONE BELT, ONE ROAD STRATEGY
70. Between China and Africa, a ‘Digital Silk Road’
Ge Tianren
Sixth Tone, October 5, 2021
71. The Security Implications of Chinese Infrastructure Investment in Europe
Dario Cristiani, Mareike Ohlberg, Jonas Parello-Plesner, Andrew Small
German Marshall Fund of the United States, September 28, 2021
OPINION PIECES
72. The Pentagon’s ‘deterrence’ strategy ignores hard-earned lessons about the balance of power
Mike Gallagher
Washington Post, September 29, 2021
73. Is the US sleepwalking towards war with China?
Joseph S. Nye
Australian Strategic Policy Institute, October 6, 2021
74. The real meaning of China’s Evergrande problem
Martin Sandbu
Financial Times, September 30, 2021
75. Science Closes in on Covid’s Origins
Richard Muller and Steven Quay
Wall Street Journal, October 5, 2021
76. A Reckoning for the China Dream
Shang-Jin Wei, Kenneth Rogoff, Stephen S. Roach, et al.
Project Syndicate, September 2021
77. Xi threatens Taiwan because he’s weak
Ian Williams
Spectator World, October 5, 2021
78. The U.S.-Australian Alliance Needs a Strategy to Deter China’s Gray-Zone Coercion
Ashley Townsend, Thomas Lonergan, and Tobey Warden
War on the Rocks, September 29, 2021
79. Japan’s Authorities in a Taiwan Contingency: Providing Needed Clarity
Mirna Galic
War on the Rocks, October 6, 2021