It’s the End of the World as We Know It
And I feel fine
Friends,
Before we jump into the latest stuff this week, two things.
First, congratulations and sincere gratitude to Chief Warrant Officer Five (CW5) Eric Slover. He was awarded the Congressional Medal of Honor this week for his conspicuous gallantry during the mission to capture Nicolas Maduro. He was flying the lead MH-47 Chinook helicopter carrying a team of Delta Force operators when it came under fire from machine gun nests and he was hit four times in his legs. He kept control of his helicopter even as his blood started pouring back through the fuselage. He unloaded his troops, then maneuvered his aircraft into position so that his door gunners could neutralize the machine gun nests that threatened the rest of his team and follow on aircraft.
While severely injured, he completed his mission. On Tuesday evening, during the State of the Union address he was standing with a walker next to his wife while he was awarded the Medal of Honor.
He embodies the motto of his Regiment: NSDQ (Night Stalkers Don’t Quit)
Great job Chief Slover, a grateful nation thanks you!
Second, Washington and Beijing released the dates for President Trump’s visit to the PRC. He is scheduled to be there March 31 to April 2 and that visit will take place about a week after Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi visits Washington on March 19.
Of course, some of these things could change based on what started early Saturday morning. But that remains to be seen… Beijing hasn’t lifted a finger to help her other allies when the United States goes after them, I don’t expect Xi to help the Ayatollah (if he is even still alive).
Disclaimer… I am writing this commentary on Saturday, February 28 because I’ll be travelling on Sunday, so please keep that in mind given the fast-changing circumstances.
First, I want to highlight a meme genre that has been out there for months, but accelerated this week… personally I find it hilarious:
This should give you a sense of just how fast things are moving.
I’ve written this before, but it bears repeating.
Nearly three years ago, Xi Jinping visited Vladimir Putin in Moscow and as he was leaving for the airport, a film crew captured an interaction between the two leaders, clearly meant to be broadcast to the world.
Xi told Putin, “Right now there are changes – the likes of which we haven’t seen for 100 years – and we are the ones driving these changes together.”
Putin smiled warmly said, “I agree” and then shook his hand and said, “Take care please, dear friend.”
That was March 2023. About 19 months after the ignominious retreat from Afghanistan and a year after Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine which the United States and its NATO allies failed to deter after months of warning. The massacre of Israeli civilians by Iranian proxies was still 7 months in the future.
From the perspective of early 2023, Xi and Putin looked like they were pushing the world where they wanted it to go. Their allies in Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, North Korea, and Pakistan were confident.
The West, on the other hand, was gripped with self-doubt, was ashamed of its history and achievements, and led by a leader that was largely absent from decision-making. It would take another year for Americans, and the rest of the world, to see on the presidential debate stage what other world leaders saw of Joe Biden’s decline.
In early 2026, I think it is very difficult to argue that Xi and Putin are the ones “driving” history now.
Many of their allies have been picked off.
The Russian shadow fleet is being cleared from the oceans and India is set to reduce its purchases of Russian oil. Beijing and Moscow now stand, for the most part, alone. Beijing is the only thing keeping Putin in power, which means that Putin is now sacrificing core Russian interests to Beijing, something that will have enormous long-term repercussions on Russia’s standing in the world.
While Putin seems willing to sacrifice hundreds of thousands of his own citizens, he has been unable in four years of war to secure even those enclaves in Ukraine with significant Russian populations, let alone subdue the whole country. And if Russia can’t force Ukraine to capitulate, a country of 35 million, then it is extremely difficult to imagine that Russia is on the verge of conquering Europe (population 450 million).
I’m certain that Xi still has a soft spot for Putin, but that doesn’t mean that Xi will act magnanimously to help Moscow.
So I think the world is changing in ways we haven’t seen in a hundred years… it is the end of the world as we know… and… for the most part… I feel fine, knock on wood.
“It’s the End of the World as We Know it (And I Feel Fine)” was released as the sixth song on R.E.M.’s 1987 album Document.
A lot depends on how the next few days and weeks go, but if the Ayatollah is deceased and the U.S. and Israel have been effective in removing the regime’s leadership nodes, we could see a blossoming of Iranian society and economic prospects that have been trampled on for nearly five decades by a megalomaniacal religious group who wanted to take Iran back in time several hundred years.
The key will be maintaining the Strait of Hormuz as an open waterway and ensuring that the strikes against the Gulf States cease.
A lot could go wrong… but I’m hoping that this conflict can be brought to an end quickly and the Iranian people can chart their own course towards prosperity and dignity. The region will be much better off once Tehran’s revolutionary regime stops trying to destabilize everyone else.
Operation EPIC FURY
Early on Saturday, February 28, the United States and Israel launched a massive attack against Iranian leadership, infrastructure, and weapons systems. The goal, as described by U.S. Central Command, was to “dismantle the Iranian regime’s security apparatus.” This is the same security apparatus that has killed between 20,000 and 40,000 Iranian citizens since the latest protests against the regime which started two months ago on December 28, 2025.
I see this as a continuation of the October 7th, 2023 attacks by Hamas on Israel that were supported by the Iranian regime. Tehran, and its proxies, sought to derail efforts by Arab governments to make peace with Israel (aka the Abraham Accords). Over the past two and a half years, Israel has defeated and dismantled Iran’s network of proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah, PIJ, and the Assad regime) and once the Trump Administration took office, that effort transitioned to confronting Iran directly.
For the most part, America’s allies in Europe and Canada have been missing in action in this effort to neutralize the Ayatollah and his Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps. The UK Prime Minister gave a statement Saturday morning in which he made two interesting points:
The “regime in Iran is utterly abhorrent,” it had “murdered thousands of their own people,” it “brutally crushed dissent,” it “sought to destabilize the region,” it “must never be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon,” and over the past year alone, the Iranian regime “backed more than 20 potentially lethal attacks on UK soil.”
The “United Kingdom played no role in these strikes.”
Let those two points sink in.
If there was ever a rationale for why the United Kingdom should use military force to defend itself, its allies, and civilization, it is a strong argument that bringing about the collapse of the Iranian regime is one of those rationales. But no, Britain will play no part, other than defending itself. The work of solving the problems posed by the Iranian regime (which the Prime Minister openly acknowledges) is left solely to the United States and Israel with traditional allies, international organizations, and the UN sitting on the sidelines angry that they weren’t consulted or plotting to see the United States fail.
Starmer makes the point that he has been talking to the leaders of the E3 (UK, Germany, and France) and all he does is to give empty platitudes to “prevent further escalation and return to a diplomatic process.”
Is Starmer joking?
We are in this mess because folks like him have no concept of how power and diplomacy actually work… the “diplomatic process” has done nothing to solve a set of issues that have been destabilizing the Middle East and Europe for decades.
Let’s remember what Starmer was doing back in the 2000s. In 2003, he defended one of the “Fairford Five,” a group of anti-war extremists who broke onto the Royal Air Force base at Fairford to sabotage UK military equipment at the start of the Iraq War. In 2005, working for free to help human rights groups, he laid the legal groundwork for hundreds of failed investigations into British troops in Iraq. His position was that British troops serving their Queen and following the orders of a Labour Prime Minister should be prosecuted, judged, and punished by the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg… a quasi-official court that asserts broad jurisdiction over the world… rather than his own nation’s government, which was controlled by his own party.
He is an unserious leader who is much better suited for the faculty lounge at Oxford or serving as the editor of a magazine like Socialist Alternatives (he served on the editorial board of this magazine in 1986-87 and as you might guess from the title, it represented a Trotskyist group that served as the British wing of the International Revolutionary Marxist Tendency (IRMT)).
I wonder if Keir Starmer was listening to the R.E.M. album in 1987 as he was active in his Marxist revolutionary group?
At least the Canadian Prime Minister, Mark Carney, had this to say in his statement:
“Canada reaffirms Israel’s right to defend itself and to ensure the security of its people. Canada supports the United States acting to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and to prevent its regime from further threatening international peace and security.”
That would have been nice to hear from No 10, but I doubt that Starmer thinks that Israel has the right to defend itself and I doubt Starmer supports the United States taking these actions, or he would have said so.
Last words on this.
My thoughts are with the service-members in harm’s way. I know their families are worried and I want to see them all come home safe.
Thanks for reading!
Matt
MUST READ
China Should Shift Economic Gears to Consumption-Led Growth, IMF Says
Tracy Qu, Wall Street Journal, February 18, 2026
China’s economy has held up remarkably well against shocks like U.S. tariffs but continued resilience will need consumption to drive growth, rather than external demand, according to a report by the International Monetary Fund.
The world’s second-largest economy is built on a growth model that faces increasing challenges, top IMF officials said in a statement alongside one of the fund’s periodic reviews.
China’s exports have defied trade uncertainty, but risks persist and domestic demand has remained subdued.
Economists have long pointed to the country’s years-long property slump as a major depressant of consumer sentiment, as real-estate makes up a significant portion of household balance sheets. A weak social safety net and job market uncertainty have added to consumers’ reluctance to spend.
“China cannot count on ever higher exports to drive durable growth in the coming years,” the IMF officials said. “That makes pivoting to consumption-led growth the overarching policy priority.”
China’s exports reliance is an issue for others too, creating external imbalances with what the IMF called “adverse spillovers” for trading partners.
The tsunami of Chinese goods entering other markets has created frictions as manufacturers elsewhere struggle to compete.
And while China’s model of state-led investment and industrial policy support has led to technological advances and gains in international market share, the IMF pointed out that it has also resulted in low aggregate returns, excess supply in some sectors and the build-up of debt and financial vulnerabilities.
Beijing is taking steps in the right direction, the fund said, including measures to spur consumption and tackle excessive price competition.
But more needs to be done to rebalance the economy toward consumption, it said, calling for improved social protection to give people the confidence to spend more, additional fiscal stimulus and aid for the property sector.
Given China’s importance in the global economy, how its economy fares and the policy choices it makes can have significant international spillovers, the IMF said.
IMF calls on China to halve industrial subsidies
Arjun Neil Alim and Thomas Hale, Financial Times, February 18, 2026
International concerns have mounted over the impact of the country’s economic policies.
The IMF has called for China to slash state support for industry as international concerns mount about overcapacity in the world’s second-largest economy.
The fund estimated that China spent about 4 per cent of its GDP subsidising companies in critical sectors and said it should reduce that by 2 percentage points in the medium term.
China’s industrial policies “are giving rise to international spillovers and pressures” and had combined with weak domestic demand to make China “more reliant on manufacturing exports as a source of growth”, the fund said.
“Industrial policy has enabled tech innovation in some sectors, but overall the impact on the economy has been negative,” said Sonali Jain-Chandra, mission chief at the IMF for China and Asia Pacific, pointing to “resource misallocation” and “overspending”.
The fund has previously called on China to scale back its industrial policies but has not estimated by how much.
The recommendations in an IMF report come after China has boosted exports of manufactured goods, including higher-value items such as electric vehicles, which has stirred tensions with the west over its subsidies.
China’s global trade surplus in goods surpassed $1tn last year. World leaders such as France’s Emmanuel Macron have bemoaned “unbearable imbalances” in trade.
COMMENT – It is so good to see the IMF finally speaking truth to power. For years, the IMF has held its tongue even as the institution knew Beijing was lying to them about their statistics. The best time for the IMF to have said these things would have been late 2015, early 2026, when Xi Jinping halted the economic reforms of the Third Plenum of the 18th Party Congress (2013). That is when the PRC rolled out ‘Made in China 2025’ which anticipated this kind of export surge of manufactured goods, but the IMF stayed silent and enabled Beijing.
Well, I’m happy they are speaking out now… hopefully the rest of the world will erect trade barriers to Chinese goods and we will take the necessary step of ejecting the PRC from the WTO (or simply shuttering the WTO and building a GATT 2.0 that excludes the PRC and the Russian Federation).
Ambassador Jamieson Greer’s speech at the University of Virginia Law School points the way.
Don’t Let International Law Get in the Way of Peace and Prosperity
Ambassador Jamieson Greer, U.S. Trade Representative, February 24, 2026
…
The students in this room will practice law in a world where the international legal order is being renegotiated. You are living in the midst of history. That is an opportunity. The best of the American legal tradition has always been pragmatic: we aspire to universal principles, but we build institutions suited to the world as it actually is. Join this project with clear eyes and an open heart.
International law should serve peace and prosperity. It should never get in the way of either.
Higher U.S. Tariffs Not to Blame for Jump in Chinese Exports to Europe, ECB Says
Paul Hannon, Wall Street Journal, February 18, 2026
The central bank’s economists say the increase in exports from China was due to developments under way before Trump hiked tariffs.
Higher U.S. tariffs are not the main reason for a surge in Chinese exports to the eurozone, Africa and other parts of Asia, according to economists at the European Central Bank.
While President Trump last year hiked tariffs on imports from countries around the world, the duties faced by Chinese businesses are higher than most other countries. That has led to a sharp fall in Chinese exports to the world’s largest economy.
Policymakers around the world feared that Chinese businesses would look elsewhere for buyers of goods that they could no longer sell in the U.S., a process known as trade diversion that would lead to even fiercer competition for their local rivals.
However, by comparing the impact of the various tariff rates faced by Chinese goods in the U.S. with changes in imports of those goods elsewhere, the ECB’s economists concluded that there was little evidence of trade being diverted to the eurozone, although they did find some signs of diversion to Africa and countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
“Overall, trade diversion accounts for only a limited role in recent Chinese export dynamics, with other factors playing a more prominent role,” the economists wrote.
However, they said it might be too early to gauge the full impact of U.S. tariffs, since “anticipatory behavior, implementation lags at customs, shipping delays and other factors can all affect how long it takes for tariff changes to be reflected in observed trade flows.”
The ECB estimates that Chinese exports to the eurozone rose by 8% in 2025 compared with a 26% jump in exports to Africa and a 13% increase in exports to ASEAN countries.
The scale of that increase in imports from China has concerned Europe’s political leaders, since it adds to the pressure on the bloc’s businesses at a time when barriers to sales in the U.S. have been raised.
“Unfair competition, especially from China, puts a lot of pressure on us,” French President Emmanuel Macron said Thursday ahead of a meeting of EU leaders to discuss the bloc’s response to its new economic challenges.
But the ECB’s economists concluded that the increase in imports was due to developments that were under way before Trump hiked tariffs, rather than diversion that might ease if the tariffs were to be reduced.
“Weak domestic demand has pushed Chinese firms to channel excess capacity abroad, supported by falling export prices, competitiveness gains reinforced by a weak currency, and state-led expansion of manufacturing capacity,” they wrote.
China overtakes US as Germany’s top trading partner
Lisa O’Carroll, The Guardian, February 22, 2026
Friedrich Merz to meet Xi Jinping in Beijing, with goods worth €251bn traded between two countries in 2025.
China has overtaken the US as Germany’s top trading partner, figures have shown, as the chancellor, Friedrich Merz, prepares for his first visit to Beijing since taking office.
Merz will head to China on Tuesday and will be welcomed with military honours on Wednesday in Beijing by the prime minister, Li Qiang, before later meeting the president, Xi Jinping, for talks over dinner, his spokesperson Sebastian Hille said.
Germany’s Federal Statistical Office released figures on Friday showing that China was back on top as the country’s most important market with €251bn (£219bn) in trade in 2025, up 2.2% on 2024, when the US was the country’s leading export destination.
Germany imported goods worth about €170.6bn from China in 2025, more than double the value of exports from Germany to China, which stood at €81.3bn.
Trade with the US was worth €240bn, with Donald Trump’s controversial tariffs partly a potential factor in the 5% drop in trade.
Hill said that during the two-day trip to China Merz would also visit the Forbidden City, the Chinese company Unitree Robotics, the German car manufacturer Mercedes-Benz and the turbine maker Siemens Energy. He will also visit the city of Hangzhou in eastern China.
Merz is expected to raise a number of topics during his visit, including the war in Ukraine, human rights and trade.
The EU is struggling to limit China’s overheating manufacturing with tariffs on electric vehicles imported to the EU introduced in 2024 having little impact on sales and tariffs threatened on steel later this year through steel safeguards.
Germany’s relationship with China on trade is complex, with car companies having a significant manufacturing presence in the country. Volkswagen has referred to it as a “second home market” and BMW and Mercedes-Benz are also heavily reliant on sales in the country for their economic success.
The BMW chief executive, Oliver Zipse, will be one of 30 business representatives to accompany Merz on the trip. “Complex global challenges can only be solved by working together,” Zipse told Reuters. “With his trip to China, the chancellor is sending a strong signal for dialogue and cooperation.”
The EU wants to derisk and has introduced several initiatives to wean itself off China, which dominates supplies of rare earths, processed rare earths, critical minerals and refined critical minerals, including lithium needed for EV batteries, and permanent magnets used in everything from cars and fridges to military jets.
Germany’s need to support the car industry, one of the country’s biggest employers, has made its approach to barriers to Chinese imports less black and white.
It voted against an EU decision to introduce tariffs on Chinese EVs in 2024 and this month was spared EU tariffs on imports of the Chinese-built Volkswagen Cupra Tavascan SUV in exchange for undertakings on the minimum price of the vehicle.
COMMENT – This article is misleading… the editors at The Guardian clearly don’t understand trade and economics… the PRC is dumping more and more in the German market even as it buys less and less from Germany. That is NOT a “trading partner” relationship, that is an increasingly one-sided relationship that benefits Beijing far more than Berlin.
German exports to the United States are still double the value of German exports to the PRC, even after the decline from the tariffs imposed this year by the Trump Administration. That means that the United States is a FAR more important market for the German economy than the Chinese one is.
I want to reinforce this point… the customers of German businesses are predominately in Europe and the United States, not in the PRC. German business leaders have fantasy that if they just capitulate a little more to the Chinese Communist Party, that Chinese consumers will replace American and European consumers. What is actually happening is that the number of Chinese consumers buying their products is dropping AND Chinese exports are replacing what European consumers buy from German companies.
It is a mistake to add imports and exports together to get a sense of a trade relationship because that assumes a relative balance between imports and exports. When it comes to dealing with Beijing, one must look at the balance of imports and exports.
German car exports to China plunge by a third in 2025, says economic institute
Reuters, February 24, 2026
German car exports to China plunged by roughly a third in 2025, extending a steep decline that has wiped out more than half the sector’s shipments since their 2022 peak, according to a study released by the German Economic Institute (IW) on Tuesday.
Exports of cars and parts fell to under 14 billion euros ($16.49 billion) last year, down from nearly 30 billion euros three years earlier, underscoring the rapid erosion of Germany’s foothold in its most important foreign market.
Carmakers — which make up Germany’s largest industrial sector — are facing their toughest test in decades, squeezed by higher U.S. import tariffs, weak demand in Europe, a costly transition to electric vehicles and an intensifying price war in China.
The IW data comes as Chancellor Friedrich Merz travels to China for the first time, a closely watched trip expected to shed light on how Europe’s biggest economy seeks to recalibrate ties with its largest trading partner amid mounting competitive and geopolitical strains.
The Looming Taiwan Chip Disaster That Silicon Valley Has Long Ignored
Tripp Mickle, New York Times, February 24, 2026
Federal officials have for years tried to wean Silicon Valley from its dependence on Taiwan, an island democracy roughly the size of Maryland that makes 90 percent of the world’s high-end computer chips.
In secret briefings held in Washington and Silicon Valley, national security officials warned executives from companies like Apple, Advanced Micro Devices and Qualcomm that China was making plans to retake Taiwan, which Beijing has long considered a breakaway territory. A Chinese blockade of Taiwan, the officials said, could choke the supply of computer chips made on the island and bring the U.S. tech industry to its knees.
Two presidents have tried persuading the industry to change. President Joseph R. Biden Jr. offered financial grants worth billions to improve the domestic production of chips. After that didn’t work, President Trump threatened billions in tariffs to essentially accomplish the same thing.
But warnings, gifts and threats have made little difference. The U.S. tech industry has stubbornly refused to shift where it gets most of its chips, which power things like smartphones, laptops and the giant data centers that run artificial intelligence.
Now, there is increasing concern that inaction by some of Silicon Valley’s most important companies risks destabilizing the global economy. Those worries, drawn into focus by recent live-fire drills conducted by the Chinese military in waters surrounding Taiwan, have prompted dire warnings from White House officials.
“The single biggest threat to the world economy, the single biggest point of single failure, is that 97 percent of the high-end chips are made in Taiwan,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last month at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, slightly overstating industry estimates. “If that island were blockaded, that capacity were destroyed, it would be an economic apocalypse.”
If Taiwan is lost, the tech industry won’t be able to say it wasn’t warned. A New York Times investigation found that executives were so focused on winning in their hypercompetitive markets and maintaining big profit margins that facing up to the Taiwan problem was an afterthought. And now it will be years before the steps some companies are finally taking make a difference.
A confidential report commissioned in 2022 by the Semiconductor Industry Association for its members, which include the largest U.S. chip companies, said cutting the supply of chips from Taiwan would lead to the largest economic crisis since the Great Depression. U.S. economic output would plunge 11 percent, twice as much as the 2008 recession. The collapse would be even more severe for China, which would experience a 16 percent decline.
Many of the biggest U.S. tech companies would have enough semiconductors to operate for several months before their businesses broke down, according to the report, which was reviewed by The Times and has not been previously reported.
The report, which was written at the encouragement of Biden administration officials, illustrated how Washington has been forced to reconsider its position on Taiwan. For decades, America’s commitment to the island was based on geopolitics, respect for democracy and containing China. It was viewed as a lopsided arrangement that was good for Taiwan and risky for the United States.
But now, more than ever, it has become clear that Taiwan is critical to America’s economic survival, especially as artificial intelligence — which is built using chips made in Taiwan — drives the U.S. stock market and fuels economic growth.
The Trump administration has been cleareyed about the risk. While some of Mr. Trump’s tariffs have appeared to be driven by impulse or retribution, he has persistently used the threat of tariffs on semiconductors to bully tech companies to buy more of their chips from U.S. factories.
That arm-twisting recently led Nvidia, the world’s most valuable company, to commit to buying chips from new plants in Arizona being built by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation, a Taiwanese company that is the world’s dominant chip manufacturer.
It was a step toward solving an intractable problem: New plants won’t be built in the United States unless companies agree to buy the chips produced in them, which would be more expensive and cut into profits. It has been a Catch-22 that federal intervention has struggled to solve.
“Reshoring manufacturing that’s critical to our national and economic security is a top priority for President Trump, and the Trump administration is implementing a nuanced and multifaceted policy approach to deliver,” said Kush Desai, a White House spokesman.
Other new commitments to U.S. chip making are trickling in. The United States is on track to spend $200 billion on semiconductor plants through 2030, enough to increase chip production capacity 50 percent, according to SEMI, a global chip industry association.
But with Taiwan, China and other countries also pouring billions into semiconductor plants, the United States would still account for only 10 percent of the world’s semiconductor production in 2030 — much as it did in 2020 when the government stepped up its calls for change.
“The whole industry has to say, ‘We’re all going to do this,’” said Bill Wiseman, global co-leader of the semiconductor practice at McKinsey, the consulting firm. Instead, he said, executives think, “‘If we’re screwed, everyone else is screwed,’ so they don’t take action.”
Bankrolling Our Own Downfall: When it comes to China, we cannot have it all.
Michael Sobolik, The Dispatch, February 26, 2026
A slow but steady economic divorce is playing out between the United States and the People’s Republic of China. Whether politicians refer to it as “decoupling” or “derisking,” the mood in Washington is set on reducing America’s economic exposure to Beijing. President Donald Trump set this tone during his first term, and President Joe Biden largely continued the project. During his second term in office, however, Trump has accelerated efforts to insulate strategic sectors from the predations of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), particularly after Beijing imposed export controls on critical minerals to America in 2025.
That wasn’t the first time the country put global supply chains at risk: China infamously threatened in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic to throttle pharmaceutical exports to the United States, which would have crippled the American medical system. After Australia called for an investigation into the origins of COVID, the CCP retaliated by effectively cutting off beef, barley, wine, timber, and other imports from Canberra. When Lithuania elevated Taiwan’s de facto diplomatic presence in 2022, Beijing responded by cutting off trade with Vilnius and pressuring other European countries to do the same. In October 2025, Beijing blocked Nexperia, a Dutch semiconductor company, from accessing legacy chips, temporarily throwing the European automobile market into chaos.
Normal trading partners do not behave this way. But the CCP is not normal. Despite the economic reforms advanced by Deng Xiaoping and his predecessors, there are still no truly private companies in China. All answer to the CCP, which sets economic priorities based primarily on geopolitical ambition. Billionaires like Jack Ma have learned the hard way that wealth is weak insulation from the party’s primacy.
Authoritarianism
Isolated Xi Jinping directly presses for soldiers’ loyalty
Katsuji Nakazawa, Nikkei Asia, February 19, 2026Chinese journalists who accused a Communist Party official of corruption released on bail
Meredith Chen, South China Morning Post, February 16, 2026
Case in Sichuan province raises fresh concerns about abuse of power and the shrinking space for media oversight and public expression.
Two Chinese investigative journalists detained in Sichuan province earlier this month after accusing a local Communist Party official of corruption have been released on bail pending further investigation.
Liu Hu, 50, a veteran Chinese investigative reporter, and his colleague, Wu Yingjiao, 34, were taken into custody on suspicion of “making false accusations” and conducting “illegal business operations”, police in Chengdu’s Jinjiang district said on February 2.
In an article posted last month that has since been taken down, the two cited a source as alleging that Pu Fayou, party secretary of Pujiang county, which is overseen by Chengdu, had abused his authority to suppress private enterprises.
The article said other county officials had been involved in corruption as well.
This is not the first time Liu has faced such charges. He was detained in 2013 under similar circumstances and was held for nearly a year before being acquitted.
The latest case has raised fresh concerns about abuse of power in China and the shrinking space for media oversight and public expression.
Reporters Without Borders, a group that lobbies for media freedom, said the detention highlighted “just how restrictive and hostile China has become towards independent reporting”.
On Saturday, authorities in Chengdu said that a municipal team had been formed to investigate the reporters’ claims and had determined that key allegations in the article were unfounded.
COMMENT – Most dangerous job in the world: a Chinese investigative journalist who tries to hold the Chinese Communist Party accountable.
Who is Dong Yuyu, the rare independent voice in China’s state media, jailed for nearly four years?
Alekandra Bielakowska, Reporters Without Borders, February 20, 2026
Ahead of the appalling fourth anniversary of Chinese journalist Dong Yuyu’s detention — 21 February — his son spoke to Reporters Without Borders (RSF) about his father’s continued imprisonment and astounding career. He describes Dong Yuyu’s years of harsh conditions behind bars for his lifetime devotion to independent journalism, despite working for China’s draconian state media.
Dong Yifu recalls that the last time he saw his father, Dong Yuyu, in person was in 2021, and the last time he saw him at all — via video call — was on 21 February 2022, the morning of the day Dong Yuyu was detained after meeting with a Japanese diplomat. “We are deeply worried about his health,” his son told RSF, citing his father’s advanced age — 63 years old — and lack of nutrition in jail. In November 2024, Beijing’s No. 2 Intermediate People’s Court sentenced Dong to seven years in prison on trumped-up charges of espionage.
According to his son, Dong Yuyu is driven by a deep sense of justice and a belief in a better future for Chinese society. He spent 35 years working for the tightly controlled state-run newspaper Guangming Daily, yet managed to consistently report on human rights issues and abuses of power. In 1998, he co-edited the book “Political China,” a compilation of essays by Chinese intellectuals advocating for political reform. Although the book quickly sold out, it was soon banned and never reprinted. “He always believed journalism could bring positive change,” his son explained. “Even when large-scale reform seemed out of reach, he focused on everyday injustices, holding power to account and defending ordinary people.”
Hillary Leung, Hong Kong Free Press, February 26, 2026
The father of a wanted Hong Kong activist has been jailed for 8 months after he sought to cancel an insurance policy linked to an “absconder.”
Kwok Yin-sang appeared at West Kowloon Magistrates’ Courts on Thursday morning to receive his sentence, after being found guilty earlier in February of attempting to obtain funds last year from an AIA insurance policy that belonged to his daughter, Anna Kwok.
His daughter lives in the US and has been wanted by national security police for suspected foreign collusion since 2023.
Handing down the jail term, Acting Principal Magistrate Andy Cheng said the offence – under the city’s homegrown security law – was serious and that Kwok had showed no remorse.
He acknowledged that Kwok did not do anything that directly endangered national security, and that the funds – if successfully withdrawn – would only be used by the defendant.
But Cheng said HK$88,000, the approximate balance of the policy, was not a small amount. In attempting to cancel the policy, Kwok had committed the “dishonest” behaviour of forging his daughter’s signature, Cheng added.
He also said that Kwok’s offence of attempting to deal with the funds could have increased the chances of his daughter not coming back to Hong Kong to face trial, therefore making it difficult for the law to prevent acts endangering national security.
Community service was therefore not a suitable punishment, Cheng said.
He set a starting sentence of nine months, and reduced it by one month considering Kwok’s old age and the fact that he had no criminal record, arriving at an eight-month sentence.
First conviction of family member
Handling an absconder’s funds is an offence under Article 23.
This case marks the first time that a family member of a wanted activist has been convicted of a national security offence.
COMMENT – The so-called judges and lawyers involved with this case in Hing Kong should be ashamed of themselves… Kwok Yin-sang is a clear “political prisoner” and is being used as a hostage to punish his daughter.
No one should be doing business in Hong Kong.
Human Rights in China, February 24, 2026
Last week, Alysa Liu’s Olympic performance sparked an outpouring of positive commentary, both for her skill on the ice and for the history her story represents. On social media platforms, many young Chinese netizens expressed that it was the experiences of Liu, and her father, Arthur Liu Jun, that made them seriously contemplate the Tiananmen Square Massacre, also known as June Fourth, for the first time.
One netizen wrote that because of Liu’s father’s story, they read about the entire development of the 1989 pro-democracy movement, and were “simply shocked. It was heartbreaking and shocking. I was shocked that a demonstration of millions could exist, and also shocked by the brutality of the People’s Liberation Army directly shooting and crushing people with tanks.” For this person and others, they discovered that history was not just a blank page in textbooks, but a real national memory that had been deliberately obscured.
Online discussion highlighted that the greatest social significance of Liu’s victory may not only be her athletic achievement, but rather that she acts as an unblockable information coordinate, prompting more Chinese people to actively search for and understand the truth about “8964” (June 4, 1989). Her existence proves that no matter how hard the censorship system tries to hide history, what happened will ultimately be remembered. Some netizens even exclaimed, “So, there really are people who want to learn about this history because of her.”
Because Arthur Liu, Alysa Liu’s father, was rescued by the Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements in China’s “Operation Yellow Bird,” many netizens gained a deeper understanding of the history of this cross-border rescue operation. Arthur Liu once said, “My original name was Liu Junguo, but after fleeing to the United States, I lost my country, so I changed my name to Liu Jun.” (In Mandarin, guo means “country”). This calm statement reveals the heavy reality of exiles losing their homeland and identity.
Did Peng Zhen Rebel Against Mao?
Joseph Torigian, China Book Review, February 19, 2026
Unusual speed and potential triggers: Assessing the latest purges in China’s military
Daria Impiombato, MERICS, February 13, 2026Hong Kong Free Press, February 23, 2026
World’s biggest PE houses struggle to exit China deals
Arjun Neil Alim, Financial Times, February 21, 2026Hong Kong gov’t mulls appeal after tycoon Jimmy Lai fraud conviction overturned
Tom Grundy, Hong Kong Free Press, February 26, 2026
How Secure Is the CCP?
Andrew J. Nathan, Foreign Affairs, February 17, 2026
China Building New Facilities in the Paracel Islands
James Byrne, Alessio Armenzoni, Chris Biggers, Om Gothi, Open Source Center, February 13, 2026James Lee, Hong Kong Free Press, February 23, 2026
More than a thousand students, staff, and alumni of the Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) have signed a petition calling for the reinstatement of a student who was expelled following his reported arrest by national security police.
The petition also called on the university to acknowledge that a disciplinary hearing held on January 7 over CUHK student Miles Kwan’s conduct was invalid due to breaches of due process.
The petition said that the hearing was “prima facie illegal for its procedural improprieties and unfairness.” As of Sunday evening, two days after the petition was launched, more than 1,000 signatures had been collected, according to an email to the press.
Kwan, 24, said earlier this month that he was kicked out of CUHK after six years of study.
He told HKFP that the university convened the January meeting with a disciplinary panel, which he described as a “kangaroo panel” and a “disgrace.” He also said he was never informed of the acts of misconduct that he had allegedly committed.
Kwan was reportedly arrested by national security police on suspicion of sedition in late November, after he created a petition calling for an independent probe into the deadly Wang Fuk Court fire.
His petition also called for government accountability, proper resettlement for residents, and a review of construction oversight.
China Hits Japanese Firms with Export Bans
Jason Douglas, Wall Street Journal, February 24, 2026
China slams dozens of Japanese companies with export curbs
Ryan McMorrow and Joe Leahy in Beijing and Harry Dempsey and Leo Lewis, Financial Times, February 23, 2026
China Amps Up Pressure on Japan with Export Bans
Javier C. Hernández, New York Times, February 24, 2026
The Runaways: Young Chinese have been moving away from big cities into rust-belt towns with cheap housing and less pressure. A new book asks what they’re running away from.
Helen Gao, China Book Review, February 12, 2026
What Friedrich Merz is going to tell Xi Jinping
Anne-Sylvaine Chassany, Financial Times, February 21, 2026
Behind Trump’s truce with China
Demetri Sevastopulo, Financial Times, February 22, 2026
Russia Turns to Bigger Tankers as More of Its Oil Goes to China
Weilun Soon, Bloomberg, February 23, 2026
China’s DeepSeek trained AI model on Nvidia’s best chip despite US ban, official says
Steve Holland, Reuters, February 23, 2026
Environmental Harms
How Peak Energy is using table salt to break China’s battery stranglehold
Pak Yiu, Nikkei Asia, February 19, 2026
Stock Slide and Slow Sales: What’s Happening in China’s E.V. Market?
Aaron Krolik, New York Times, February 19, 2026
Energy Dominance with Chinese Characteristics
Carolyn Kissane, Foreign Affairs, February 19, 2026
Foreign Interference and Coercion
US arrests former F-35 instructor for allegedly training Chinese pilots
James Hand-Cukierman, Nikkei Asia, February 26, 2026
FBI says the accused taught adversaries ‘to fight against those he swore to protect’
U.S. authorities have arrested a former Air Force officer and instructor for the advanced F-35 fighter jet, accusing him of conspiring to train Chinese military flyers.
A statement from the Department of Justice released Wednesday in the U.S. said 65-year-old Gerald Eddie Brown, Jr., known by the call sign “Runner,” was arrested in the state of Indiana. He is expected to appear in court on Thursday.
“Gerald Brown, a former F-35 Lightning II instructor pilot with decades of experience flying U.S. military aircraft, allegedly betrayed his country by training Chinese pilots to fight against those he swore to protect,” said Assistant Director Roman Rozhavsky of the FBI’s Counterintelligence and Espionage Division in the statement. “The Chinese government continues to exploit the expertise of current and former members of the U.S. armed forces to modernize China’s military capabilities.”
The allegation surfaced weeks before U.S. President Donald Trump is due to visit Beijing to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, and as the rival superpowers wage a not-so-secret espionage battle. The CIA earlier this month released a new video aiming to recruit Chinese military officers as assets, shortly after the purge of China’s top general, Zhang Youxia.
The DOJ said Brown served in the Air Force for 24 years, leaving active duty in 1996 with the rank of major. During his career, he “commanded sensitive units with responsibility for nuclear weapons delivery systems, led combat missions, and served as a fighter pilot instructor and simulator instructor on a variety of fighter and attack aircraft,” including the F-4, F-15, F-16 and A-10.
He went on to serve as a simulator instructor for defense contractors, which included training U.S. pilots on how to fly the state-of-the-art F-35. The fifth-generation jet is widely considered one of the world’s most potent military aircraft, with stealth, high-tech connectivity and electronic warfare capabilities.
According to the DOJ, Brown started arranging terms of a contract in China through a co-conspirator in August 2023. A resume he prepared for the job stated his “objective” as “Instructor Fighter Pilot.”
The allegations state that he went to China that December. He allegedly spent three hours on his first day answering questions about the U.S. Air Force. Then, on his second day, he briefed the People’s Liberation Army Air Force about himself. He remained in China until earlier this month.
This is not the first case of its kind. A former U.S. Marine Corps pilot was charged in 2017 for allegedly providing and conspiring to provide defense services to Chinese military pilots without authorization, along with money laundering. Specifically, he was accused of training Chinese pilots about American tactics, techniques and procedures for aviation on aircraft carriers. He was arrested in Australia in 2022 and is awaiting extradition to the U.S., the DOJ said.
COMMENT – This knucklehead began negotiating a contract to train PLAAF pilots with Stephen Su Bin… the Ministry of State Security spy who was convicted and imprisoned in the United States in 2016 for four years.
Dude, you have to google the people you are dealing with.
Some advice to everyone out there… if you start negotiating an employment contract with this guy, know that he is a Chinese spy.
If you ignore that advice, then don’t be surprised if you get your very own sad-face mugshot like Gerald Brown below.
House of Representatives election, Chinese 400 accounts “Anti-Takaichi work”: Clever use of Japanese language and AI [ORIGINAL IN JAPANESE]
Nippon Keijyo Shimbun, February 22, 2026
COMMENT - Around 400 suspected Chinese X accounts used AI-generated images to try and sway public opinion against Prime Minister Takamichi Sanna during Japan’s Lower House election. While their influence was limited, experts say this incident may be a test case for using dormant accounts and AI in election interference.
How Private Equity Debt Left a Leading VPN Open to Chinese Hackers
Jordan Robertson and Paula Seligson, Bloomberg, February 18, 2026
Wassenaar Arrangement: will China join or kill this 30-year-old weapon control club?
Victoria Bela, South China Morning Post, February 24, 2026
Peru’s Sovereignty Not at Risk with Chinese Port, Minister Says
Valentine Hilaire, Bloomberg, February 14, 2026
German carmakers need China to compete globally, BMW CEO says ahead of Merz trip
Christina Amann, Reuters, February 19, 2026
Germany Shows How Difficult It Is to Rewire Relations with China
Bertrand Benoit, Wall Street Journal, February 25, 2026
‘China shock’ hangs over German leader Friedrich Merz’s first visit to Beijing
Finbarr Bermingham, South China Morning Post, February 23, 2026
Peru Congress ousts President Jeri because of China-linked secret meetings
Sarah Morland, Reuters, February 17, 2026
Data reveals scale of US allies’ China hedge under Trump
J.D. Capelouto, Semafor, February 24, 2026
Trips by Western officials constitute about half of all diplomatic visits to China during Donald Trump’s second term so far, according to a Semafor analysis of Chinese government data.
That compares to only a quarter of visits during Trump’s first term and Joe Biden’s presidency.
The leaders of 12 distinct Western nations have visited China in the 13 months since Trump returned to office — compared to 19 in his entire first term.
The findings quantify a global shift — emphasized most recently by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s visit to China this week and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s last month — in which Beijing is courting Washington’s traditional partners, nations now hedging between the superpowers.
For Beijing, the trips “send a powerful message… about China’s great-power status and America’s diminished reliability,” The Economist wrote.
Despite a host of underlying disputes, the bonhomie is a “material improvement” after years of “decoupling” talk.
Semafor pulled every diplomatic announcement from the China Ministry of Foreign Affairs since 2017 and analyzed only formally announced bilateral visits to China by a foreign leader or diplomat. The analysis excluded multilateral summits hosted in China, such as the Belt and Road Forum, where dozens of leaders may attend without receiving individual announcements.
The data shows a broad post-COVID surge in diplomacy in which China also looked to deepen bonds with the Global South as well as close allies.
In Trump’s second term, visits to China by the US’ Indo-Pacific allies in particular picked up.
In 2024, every Western head of state to visit China was European, but countries like Australia, South Korea, and Canada made trips in 2025 and this year, the data shows. China has looked to woo regional powers spurned by Washington’s protectionist turn.
In all, representatives from 144 distinct countries have visited China since 2017 — France tops the list with 13 visits from various senior officials.
Human Rights and Religious Persecution
Johnson Will Bring Daughter of Jimmy Lai to State of the Union Address
Catie Edmondson, New York Times, February 23, 2026Christian Missionary Dong Yanmei Still Detained Despite Expired Legal Deadline
Qi Junzao, Bitter Winter, February 25, 2026
Tahir Imin, Uyghur Times, February 18, 2026
Authorities in Aksu Prefecture have begun implementing Mandarin Chinese as the required language for the driver’s license theory examination in several counties, according to a statement shared by local Chinese police on Douyin, the Chinese version of TikTok.
The police stated, “Beginning February 15, 2026, the driver’s license theory examination will be conducted in Mandarin in the counties of Kucha, Xinhe, Shayar, and other parts of Aksu Prefecture. All applicants are required to take the theory exam in Mandarin. This requirement applies not only to first-time candidates but also to those who have already completed earlier stages of the licensing process and are preparing to take subsequent examinations, including the final stage. This measure is currently being implemented only in certain counties of Aksu Prefecture and does not apply to the entirety of Xinjiang. It is not yet clear whether it will be expanded to other regions or whether it is a temporary arrangement. There is no confirmed timeline regarding whether the original policy will be restored. Individuals who are in the process of obtaining their driver’s licenses are advised to complete their examinations as soon as possible.”
The Chinese government has banned the use of the Uyghur language in government institutions, education, and even in prisons and re-education camps, allowing it only in daily life outside official settings. This policy has greatly restricted the language’s vitality, while Mandarin is being imposed across nearly every aspect of public and private life.
Chinese Suppression of Uyghur Activists’ Peaceful Protest Sparks Outrage
East Turkistan News, February 17, 2026
Hong Kong 47: court dismisses appeals by 12 activists in national security trial
South China Morning Post, February 24, 2026Court rejects appeals of all 12 activists in landmark ‘Hong Kong 47’ national security case
Hans Tse, Hong Kong Free Press, February 23, 2026
The Dark Side of the Hong Kong White Paper: Fear Grows After the Jimmy Lai Verdict
Gladys Kwok, Bitter Winter, February 20, 2026
Over 60 Hong Kong civil society groups disband following the onset of the security law
Hong Kong Free Press, February 19, 2026
Industrial Policies and Economic Espionage
How China plans to dominate global trade long after Trump
Joe Cash, Reuters, February 19, 2026
European industry faces an existential China challenge
Lowy Institute, February 19, 2026
Nissan Americas Head Embraces Threat from Chinese Car Brands
Leonardo Lara, Bloomberg, February 18, 2026
UK flirtation with Chinese auditing spotlights little-used listing path
Kenji Kawase, Nikkei Asia, February 19, 2026
Internal Value Chains Remain Dependent on China Even as Multinationals Shift Production to America
Eli Clemens, ITIF, February 23, 2026
The Prescription for China’s Ailing Growth Model
Lingling Wei, Wall Street Journal, February 24, 2026
Panasonic turns off US and Europe TV business with handover to Chinese rival
Harry Dempsey and David Keohane, Financial Times, February 23, 2026
The rotten tail of China’s property bust
The Economist, February 23, 2026
Cyber and Information Technology
Texas sues TP-Link, alleging it allows China to hack into routers
Suzanne Smalley, The Record, February 19, 2026
Nvidia Has Sold Zero H200s to China, Top US Export Enforcer Says
Maggie Eastland, Bloomberg, February 24, 2026
China’s humanoids are dazzling the world. Who will buy them?
The Economist, February 18, 2026
Beijing backs brain implant push to rival Elon Musk’s Neuralink
Eleanor Olcott, Financial Times, February 17, 2026
ByteDance pledges to prevent unauthorised IP use on AI video tool after Disney threat
Reuters, February 15, 2026
China’s Humanoid Robot Boom: What to Know
Micah McCartney and Didi Kirsten Tatlow, Newsweek, February 24, 2026
Military and Security Threats
Fact check: Are China’s robot soldiers just AI fakes?
Uta Steinwehr, DW, February 22, 2026
A dozen humanoid robots stand in front of a snow-covered mountain range. They hold machine guns and run across a shooting range, kneeling down to shoot at targets and change magazines, then maneuvering through an obstacle course.
The setting for these scenes in a 48-second video currently circulating on social media is supposedly China, with the national flag flying in the background. But is it real?
Claim: “China has released a video of shooting drills involving Terminator-like robots,” says a post on X that has been viewed 375,000 times. Another poststates: “China deployed 10,000+ robotic soldiers that will reduce the human cost if China-Taiwan war breakouts in 2027.” Still other posts refer to the video as a “Unitree Robotics robot shooting test,” including one on X with more than 1.5 million views. The video has been shared with similar claims in many other languages, including Arabic, French, Russian, Spanish, Turkish, Portuguese, Georgian, and Vietnamese.
DW Fact Check: Fake
The robots in the video are based on the G1 model by Chinese company Unitree Robotics. But the scenes were clearly created using artificial intelligence. While some users have at least suggested that the video could be AI-generated, they have continued to post it with false claims.
Using a reverse image search of a still image from the video, DW Fact Check found a higher-resolution, slightly shorter version on YouTube that reveals more details. Frame-by-frame analysis revealed several AI-typical inconsistencies that could not have been created in the editing process.
Formations of thousands of Chinese fishing boats stir worries in Japan
Nikkei Asia, February 19, 2026
US meeting Russian and Chinese delegations for nuclear arms control talks, official says
Olivia Le Poidevin, Reuters, February 23, 2026
U.S. Arms Sale to Taiwan in Limbo Amid Pressure Campaign from China
Alex Leary, Lingling Wei and Michael R. Gordon, Wall Street Journal, February 18, 2026
All Together Now: China’s Militia in 2025
Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, February 23, 2026
Australian warship transits Taiwan Strait, tracked by China’s navy
The Diplomat, February 21, 2026
China’s Type 095 nuclear submarine spotted for first time in new satellite images
Liu Zhen, South China Morning Post, February 22, 2026
Here’s why a Chinese company was forced to sell land near a Utah military depot
Addy Baird, Salt Lake Tribune, February 13, 2026
Iran nears deal to buy supersonic anti-ship missiles from China
John Irish, Reuters, February 23, 2026
One Belt, One Road Strategy
Why China’s fast turnaround gives its projects an edge in Kenya over the West
Jevans Nyabiage, South China Morning Post, February 19, 2026
China isn’t retreating in Latin America -- it’s recalibrating
Evan Ellis, UPI, February 20, 2026
Trump Takes Anti-China Crusade to Chile Ahead of Latin America Summit in Miami
Patricia Garip and Antonia Mufarech, Bloomberg, February 23, 2026
Congo’s cobalt curbs expose China’s critical metals weak spot
Andy Home, Reuters, February 24, 2026
Opinion
If we can’t name China’s cyberattacks, we lose trust in ourselves
Justin Bassi, The Strategist, February 17, 2026
Beijing and Moscow build their arsenals while the U.S. restrains itself.
Wall Street Journal, February 22, 2026
Redrawing global boundaries? The United States, China, and the viability of spheres of influence in the 21st century
William A. Galston, Brookings, February 18, 2026
America’s narrative on Taiwan needs an update
Ryan Hass, Brookings, February 18, 2026
China May Grab a Lead in the Race for Military Fusion
Jimmy Goodrich, Wall Street Journal, February 24, 2026
China is not dumping US Treasuries
Brad Setser, Financial Times, February 23, 2026
The cyber security threat inside your car
Chris Miller, Financial Times, February 23, 2026
America Has an Edge Over China. Why Won’t We Use It?
Jonas Nahm, New York Times, February 23, 2026
China tried to buy the world. It failed.
Matthew Lynn, Washington Post, February 23, 2026
America Might Not Rule, but the Dollar Still Does
Eswar Prasad, New York Times, February 25, 2026
China seeks to cultivate a food supply immune to geopolitical shocks
Genevieve Donnellon-May, South China Morning Post, February 22, 2026