Kissingerian Advice
Friends,
Henry Kissinger passed away this week at the age of 100.
As expected, the obituaries, analysis, hagiography, and criticism of his life and legacy got posted online within hours... much of it prewritten and waiting for the inevitable. Much as it was during his life, his defenders and detractors took up their positions in the battle of historical judgement.
Kissinger elicits strong opinions from nearly everyone, but it’s hard to overstate his influence on U.S.-PRC relations over the past 50 years. Kissinger was certainly an ‘old soldier’ in both the literal and figurative sense, but he was unwilling to follow Douglas MacArthur’s advice about fading away. He fought hard to remain at the center of the Sino-American relationship all the way to the end and he did so by focusing his attention on maintaining good relations with senior Party officials in Beijing.
The only thing that seemed to change was the color of Xi’s tie and the flower arrangements.
The Lesson I Learned from Kissinger
Starting in 2014, I had the opportunity to talk to Kissinger on multiple occasions. Each time he was deeply engaged in the most current issues of the Sino-American relationship and happy to provide advice even to someone as junior as I was.
During my first meeting with him at his New York City office, two things stood out as memorable.
First, Kissinger made it clear that the policy positions he advocated on the PRC as a business consultant and lobbyist, were not necessarily the same policies he would pursue today as a senior U.S. Government official. He encouraged the three of us who were meeting with him to think independently about what was best for the country. He encouraged us to be deeply knowledgeable of the details of foreign and national security policy, but not become blinded by their precedents. If, in 1971, he had listened to conventional wisdom, he would not have pursued an opening with Mao Zedong. When conditions change in the geopolitical environment, those who serve their country must be willing to question conventional wisdom, undertake new policies, and create new realities that further the country’s interests.
Whether he intended to or not, the impression he gave me was that Kissinger, the National Security Advisor and Secretary of State, would NOT have listened to the advice of Kissinger, the business consultant and lobbyist. He was masterful at blurring the line between statesman and lobbyist, but understood that the roles were not the same. To me he seemed completely self-aware of this phenomenon.
The second memorable event happened just as I walked into his office. A small group of us were waiting in the outer office for him to finish an earlier appointment. When the door opened, out walked Kissinger and Elizabeth Holmes… yes that Elizabeth Holmes of Theranos and a current inmate at FPC Bryan (Federal Prison Camp Bryan, next-door to Texas A&M University). This was before the October 2015 publication of John Carreyrou’s investigative report on fraud in Theranos and the company’s ignominious collapse.
I remember thinking at the time: gee-whiz, that woman looks awfully familiar.
Elizabeth Holmes on the covers of ‘Forbes 400’ and Fortune in 2014. Seven years later, Forbes would put Sam Bankman-Fried on their ‘Forbes 400’ cover and in August 2022, Fortune would have SBF on its cover with the title: “The Next Warren Buffett?” just a few weeks before the collapse of FTX and SBF’s arrest in the Bahamas.
Someone should do a montage of business magazine covers that don’t age well.
***
Just before Thanksgiving, I went on two podcasts. If you have time, please listen to them, both Jim Herlihy and Jordan Schneider run excellent shows.
Jim Herlihy’s The San Francisco Experience, Does China's CCP see the US as an existential threat? Talking with Matt Turpin and Jordan Schneider’s China Talk Podcast, Xi-Biden at APEC + What It Takes To Compete.
Thanks for reading!
Matt
MUST READ
1. Global pension funds now balking at China
Mike Dolan, Reuters, December 1, 2023
A survey by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum of 22 public pension and sovereign wealth funds managing $4.3 trillion in assets showed not one had a positive outlook for China's economy or saw higher relative returns there. Three-quarters of them cited regulation and geopolitics as chief deterrents.
COMMENT – When long-term investors abandon the PRC, it is hard to see how Beijing can return to the kinds of growth that made integrating the PRC into the global economy an attractive proposition.
2. Hong Kong to restructure primary education to make it more ‘patriotic’
The Guardian, November 24, 2023
Hong Kong is to introduce “patriotic” education in all primary schools by 2025, in the government’s latest push to “systematically cultivate” a sense of national identity among schoolchildren.
Under the new framework, primary school pupils are expected to learn about national security and will also be taught about the opium war and Japan’s invasion of China, two key events in Beijing’s narrative of a “century of humiliation”, which it pushes as a reason for nationalism.
COMMENT – As Beijing pushes these changes on Hong Kong, it only makes the chances of a consensual unification with Taiwan less likely.
Before 2019, some Taiwanese could imagine how a Hong Kong-style “One Country, Two Systems” might work for them, but the imposition of “One Country, One System” has destroyed Beijing’s best option for achieving its goals peacefully with Taiwan.
3. How China is tearing down Islam
Peter Andringa, Irene de la Torre Arenas, Max Harlow, Sam Joiner, Lucy Rodgers, Yuan Yang, Eva Xiao, Joe Leahy and Sun Yu, Financial Times, November 27, 2023
The PRC has been modifying, stripping, or destroying hundreds of mosques over the past five years, according to satellite imagery analyzed by the Financial Times.
The government claims the changes are meant to modernize and "harmonize" the mosques with Chinese culture. This effort, called sinicization, aims to assimilate groups and religions considered non-Chinese into what the government sees as Chinese culture. The modifications have been most prevalent in regions with high populations of ethnic groups that traditionally practice Islam.
COMMENT – Great work by the Financial Times… unfortunately, work like this and plenty of others which demonstrate the Chinese Communist Party’s anti-Islam roots gets almost no traction within Muslim-majority countries or from progressive groups in Europe and the United States.
4. Two executives of groups linked to troubled Chinese shadow bank go missing
Cheng Leng, Financial Times, December 1, 2023
Companies linked to troubled shadow banking company Zhongzhi said they had lost contact with two executives, days after Chinese authorities said they were opening an investigation into the sprawling conglomerate.
Ma Hongying, chair of Shenzhen-listed early education provider Dalian My Gym Education Technology, and Ma Changshui, chair of Xinjiang Tianshan Animal Husbandry Bio-Engineering, could not be reached, the companies said in separate exchange filings late on Wednesday.
An investment arm of Zhongzhi owns a 30 per cent stake in My Gym, while other Zhongzhi units own a combined 24.3 per cent stake in Tianshan.
COMMENT – If the Party really is intent on bolstering investor confidence and encouraging economic growth, they have a really strange way of showing it.
5. Don’t Count on Economic Woes to Deter China
Mike Gallagher, Wall Street Journal, November 28, 2023
Xi hasn’t shortchanged the military and boasts of his country’s ability to withstand hardships.
During his September trip to Vietnam, President Biden dismissed a reporter who asked for his thoughts on the threat the Chinese Communist Party poses to Taiwan. “I think China has a difficult economic problem right now,” Mr. Biden said. “I don’t think it’s going to cause China to invade Taiwan. And matter of fact, the opposite—it probably doesn’t have the same capacity that it had before.”
Mr. Biden’s response perhaps explains why his administration’s China policy has veered away from competition and toward accommodation. The hope is that Beijing’s economic woes will make it more conciliatory. But that assumption badly misunderstands the power-hungry nature of the Chinese Communist Party and the lessons of history.
China doubtless has problems. Many commentators have asked if we’ve reached “peak China,” the point at which demographic headwinds and self-destructive economic policies combine to slow the once mighty engine of the Chinese economy, perhaps for good.
But there is good reason to be skeptical that China’s economic difficulties will on their own prevent conflict. Building a first-class military and reclaiming Taiwan are among President Xi Jinping’s priorities. Even if the economy sags and Mr. Xi has to cut back in other areas, the military will get the funds it needs. The Pentagon’s recently released annual report on Chinese military and security developments makes clear that, notwithstanding a significant slowdown in China’s rate of economic growth, Beijing “can support continued growth in defense spending for at least the next five to 10 years.”
Economic pain may actually be a feature of Mr. Xi’s strategy, not a bug. He thinks the U.S. is weak and unwilling to suffer hardship. China endured the Great Leap Forward (1958-62) and the Cultural Revolution (1966-76) and still held together, albeit through intense repression and at the expense of tens of millions of Chinese lives. In the event of a Taiwan conflict, sanctions and supply-chain disruptions would wreak havoc on the global economy. Even if China were harder hit, Mr. Xi might bet that Western societies would buckle first, particularly given his proactive steps to prepare for war. As Mr. Xi put it at the start of the 20th Party Congress in October 2022, China must “prepare for a rainy day, and be ready to withstand major tests of high winds and high waves.”
Additionally, Communist Party leaders may perceive a near-term window of relative advantage before China’s structural problems grow even worse. Scholars Hal Brands and Michael Beckley have warned that the middle to late 2020s could pose a particularly dangerous window for Taiwan for precisely this reason.
At the same time, high unemployment, economic stagnation and popular discontent are existential challenges for the Communist Party. An invasion of Taiwan might provide an effective distraction. If Mr. Xi can’t provide jobs for China’s young people—youth unemployment reached 21% this summer before the Chinese government decided it should stop reporting the figure—or hit previous growth targets, a successful conquest of Taiwan might become more, not less, desirable. If anything, it could become a gambit to jump-start growth, put people to work and unite the country.
Other authoritarian countries have waged war despite domestic economic challenges. Consider Russia under Vladimir Putin. After years of strong growth in the mid-2000s, the Russian economy slowed beginning with the 2008 financial crisis. In the year leading up to the 2014 invasion of Ukraine, Russia grew at less than 2%. Declining oil prices and sanctions have since put a damper on the nation’s economy. Between the 2014 and 2022 invasions of Ukraine, Russia’s growth averaged barely 1%. Nevertheless, Mr. Putin invaded and kept his war machine running, which caused further economic pain in the face of additional sanctions.
Another relevant example is Imperial Japan during the interwar period. Like China today, Japan saw a long boom give way to stagnation, with annual growth falling from an average of 6.2% in 1914-20 to 1.8% in 1921-29, and then to 0.7% in 1930-31 as Japan, like the rest of the world, battled the Great Depression.
The final two years are particularly instructive. The effects of the global crash combined with an abrupt appreciation of the yen, stemming from Japan’s return to the gold standard, led to a paralyzing economic contraction called the Showa Depression. The Showa Depression didn’t, however, temper Japan’s external ambitions. As the nation’s economy was contracting, Tokyo—which had three years earlier signed the Kellogg-Briand Pact outlawing war—invaded Manchuria in September 1931, kicking off the chain of events that would later lead to total war in the Pacific.
The Chinese Communist Party’s recent behavior contradicts Mr. Biden’s hypothesis. As the Chinese economy has slowed, Chinese coast guard and maritime militia vessels have rammed Filipino coast guard and military-resupply ships in the South China Sea. The Philippines is a U.S. ally. The Chinese military has conducted more than 180 unsafe and unprofessional intercepts of U.S. forces over the past two years—a dangerous spike that has brought U.S. and Chinese forces within feet of deadly collisions. China’s threats to Taiwan also escalate daily, including unprecedented incursions by People’s Liberation Army forces over the “median line” in the Taiwan Strait.
War with China isn’t inevitable. But we can’t rely on an economic deus ex machina to prevent a conflict. Rather than wager peace on wishful thinking, American policy makers—from the president to Congress—must move heaven and earth to deter China and prevent a conflict before it is too late.
COMMENT – I think Congressman Gallagher is right, putting faith in the PRC’s economic hardships as the method that will ensure peace in the Western Pacific is unwise.
6. Singing from the CCP’s songsheet
Fergus Ryan, Matt Knight, and Daria Impiombato, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, November 24, 2023
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has always viewed contact with foreigners and the outside world as a double-edged sword, presenting both threats and opportunities. While the CCP and its nationalist supporters harbour fears of foreigners infiltrating China’s information space and subtly ‘setting the tempo’ of discussions, the CCP also actively cultivates a rising group of foreign influencers with millions of fans, which endorses pro-CCP narratives on Chinese and global social-media platforms.
In the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the information ecosystem is geared towards eliminating rival narratives and promoting the party’s ‘main melody’—the party’s term for themes or narratives that promote its values, policies and ideology. Foreign influencers who are amenable to being ‘guided’ towards voicing that main melody are increasingly considered to be valuable assets. They’re seen as building the CCP’s legitimacy for audiences at home, as well as supporting propaganda efforts abroad.
This report examines how a growing subset of foreign influencers, aware of the highly nationalistic online environment and strict censorship rules in China, is increasingly choosing to create content that aligns more explicitly with the CCP’s ‘main melody’. In addition to highlighting the country’s achievements in a positive light, these influencers are promoting or defending China’s position on sensitive political issues, such as territorial disputes or human rights concerns.
COMMENT – More great work from ASPI
7. Inside U.S. Efforts to Untangle an A.I. Giant’s Ties to China
Mark Mazzetti and Edward Wong, New York Times, November 27, 2023
When the secretive national security adviser of the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed, visited the White House in June, his American counterpart, Jake Sullivan, raised a delicate issue: G42, an artificial intelligence firm controlled by the sheikh that American officials believe is hiding the extent of its work with China.
In public, the company has announced its staggering growth with a steady cadence of news releases. They have included agreements with European pharmaceutical giants like AstraZeneca and a $100 million deal with a Silicon Valley firm to build what the companies boast will be the “world’s largest supercomputer.” Last month, G42 announced a partnership with OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT.
But in classified American intelligence channels, there have been more concerning reports about the company. The C.I.A. and other American spy agencies have issued warnings about G42’s work with large Chinese companies that U.S. officials consider security threats, including Huawei, the telecommunications giant that is under U.S. sanctions.
U.S. officials fear G42 could be a conduit by which advanced American technology is siphoned to Chinese companies or the government. The intelligence reports have also warned that G42’s dealings with Chinese firms could be a pipeline to get the genetic data of millions of Americans and others into the hands of the Chinese government, according to two officials familiar with the reports.
8. Small ‘Hot’ Wars Will Define Cold War II
Hal Brands, Bloomberg, November 26, 2023
The US and Soviet Union never came to direct blows but fought for decades through proxies and interventions. Today Ukraine, Syria and Gaza are local conflicts with global implications.
The conflict between Israel and Hamas is the most recent round in the long-running struggle between the Jewish state and its enemies. It is a fight to determine whether Iran’s “axis of resistance,” or a loose coalition led by the US, has the edge in a vital region. But this conflict also has a larger global salience: It is one of a series of hot wars at the center of the new cold war playing out around the world.
Cold wars are never as cold — never as peaceful — as their name implies. The US-Soviet struggle from 1947 to 1991 featured dozens of civil wars, proxy wars, and even serious conventional conflicts in places from the Korean Peninsula to Central America. These wars roiled entire regions; in a few cases, they threatened to engulf the globe. Today, a new cold war pits the US and its allies against an axis of Eurasian autocracies. That struggle, too, features some very violent clashes, of which the Israel-Hamas war is the latest, but surely not the last.
In prolonged global contests, these “small wars” can have outsized consequences. They reshape the geopolitical chessboard; they help determine which side will be best prepared if the larger cold war turns hot. They can be sources of strategic advantage, or strategic misery, for the great powers that get involved.
Such conflicts profoundly influenced the course and eventual conclusion of the US-Soviet Cold War. Prevailing in today’s cold war will require navigating the myriad hot wars the US and its friends are likely to encounter along the way.
Only in Europe was the original Cold War truly a “long peace.” Almost everywhere else, it was a cauldron of violence. Civil wars and insurgencies convulsed the Global South. Major conventional wars remade places such as Korea, Vietnam and the Middle East. Superpower involvement in these conflicts — with arms, money or military forces — was omnipresent, even though Moscow and Washington never quite came to blows. The US ultimately lost roughly 100,000 military personnel in the Cold War’s hot wars; all told, the conflicts of the era claimed 20 million lives.
The body counts were ghastly, but unsurprising. Nuclear stalemate fostered stability in superpower relations by giving both sides good reason to avoid all-out war. The division of Europe into coherent, clearly organized blocs meant that red lines in that theater were, eventually, well-understood.
But in a zero-sum contest for geopolitical and ideological mastery, the superpowers — especially the Soviets — simply looked elsewhere for advantage. And the instability that afflicted the developing regions, due primarily to de-colonization and the ideological radicalism of the post-1945 period, created a mass of kindling that Cold War frictions helped ignite.
9. Chinese-funded lawsuits fuel backlash against litigation financiers
Joe Miller, Financial Times, November 18, 2023
The revelation that a Chinese company is funding several US patent lawsuits has put the $13bn litigation finance industry on the defence over claims that Beijing could exploit the American legal system and spy on corporations.
Court filings in Delaware show that Shenzhen-based Purplevine IP is backing two related intellectual property suits brought against a subsidiary of Samsung Electronics. The suits allege that JBL Bluetooth earbuds infringe on several voice detection and noise reduction innovations, as does an in-car sound system.
Purplevine is reportedly backing three other cases in Texas, brought by the same Florida-based wearable tech company. Litigation finance companies pay legal costs upfront in exchange for a share of damages that may be awarded.
“The cost of allowing foreign actors, especially foreign adversaries, to take advantage of the American court system is high,” Florida’s Republican senators Marco Rubio and Rick Scott wrote to their state’s chief federal judges shortly after the initial Purplevine disclosure, urging them to force parties in their courts to divulge the backing of foreign investors.
COMMENT – Our watchword with the PRC and its commercial entities needs to be “reciprocity.”
Authoritarianism
10. Xi Jinping repeats imperial China’s mistakes
The Economist, November 16, 2023
11. Beijing bourse tells 'major shareholders' to refrain from selling, sources say
Reuters, November 28, 2023
12. Deloitte and KPMG ask staff to use burner phones for Hong Kong trips
Kaye Wiggins, Leo Lewis, and Joe Leahy, Financial Times, November 27, 2023
13. Under 10% of Taiwanese see China as trustworthy: Survey
Chiang Chin-yeh and Bernadette Hsiao, Focus Taiwan, November 21, 2023
14. What Hong Kong’s banker malaise signifies
Craig Coben, Financial Times, November 27, 2023
15. China Investment Bank Bans Bearish Research, Displays of Wealth
Bloomberg, November 29, 2023
One of China’s largest investment banks has warned its analysts against making any bearish calls and to avoid showing off their lavish lifestyle, as Beijing continues to clamp down on well-paid bankers.
Analysts at China International Capital Corp. are barred from sharing negative comments about the economy or markets in both public and private discussions, according to an internal memo sent to the research department this month and seen by Bloomberg News. Employees should also avoid wearing luxury brands or revealing their compensation to third parties, the memo said.
16. Taiwan Opposition Cracks Apart, and Invites the Cameras In
Chris Buckley and Amy Chang Chien, New York Times, November 24, 2023
17. Goldman Sachs pares back ‘growth at all costs’ China strategy
Joshua Franklin and Owen Walker, Financial Times, November 28, 2023
18. Buyout Billionaire Sees Rising China Risk, Sanctions Over Taiwan
Patrick Winters and Dexter Low, Bloomberg, November 28, 2023
The billionaire co-founder of Swiss private equity giant Partners Group Holding AG said the firm has grown more cautious on China, warning that conflict might ultimately break out over Taiwan.
“We are more careful,” said Urs Wietlisbach, whose $142 billion firm hasn’t done a transaction in the country in about two years. “A Chinese deal today just needs to bring a much higher expected return because you take much more risk.”
19. Xi Jinping’s grip on Chinese enterprise gets uncomfortably tight
The Economist, November 26, 2023
20. Gold Bars and Tokyo Apartments: How Money Is Flowing Out of China.
Keith Bradsher and Joy Dong, New York Times, November 28, 2023
Environmental Harms
21. EU climate chief: China must help fund rescue of poorer nations hit by disaster
Fiona Harvey, The Guardian, November 26, 2023
22. Greenpeace accuses China oil and gas firms of 'greenwashing' LNG purchases
David Stanway, Reuters, November 27, 2023
23. China Pledged to ‘Strictly Control’ Coal. The Opposite Happened.
Lauri Myllyvirta and Byford Tsang, Foreign Policy, November 29, 2023
24. China's 'Predatory' Trawler Fleet and the Fishing Industry's Dirty Secret
Micah McCartney, Newsweek, November 17, 2023
Foreign Interference and Coercion
25. Google Warns China Is Ramping Up Cyberattacks Against Taiwan
Ryan Gallagher, Bloomberg, November 29, 2023
China is waging a growing number of cyberattacks on neighboring Taiwan, according to cybersecurity experts at Alphabet Inc.’s Google.
Google has observed a “massive increase” in Chinese cyberattacks on Taiwan in the last six months or so, said Kate Morgan, a senior engineering manager in Google’s threat analysis division, which monitors government-sponsored hacking campaigns. Morgan warned that Chinese hackers are employing tactics that make their work difficult to track, such as breaking into small home and office internet routers and repurposing them to wage attacks while masking their true origin.
26. ‘China’s position is clear’: Foreign Minister Wang Yi pushes for one UN voice on Gaza ceasefire
Alyssa Chen, South China Morning Post, November 29, 2023
27. Applied Materials under US criminal probe for shipments to China's SMIC
Karen Freifeld, Reuters, November 17, 2023
28. The Cost of Doing Business with China? A $40,000 Dinner with Xi Jinping Might Be Just the Start
Lingling Wei and Liza Lin, Wall Street Journal, November 28, 2023
Broadcom Chief Executive Hock Tan shelled out $40,000 to sit at Xi Jinping’s table for the Chinese leader’s recent dinner in San Francisco with the heads of American businesses. Tan had a lot more at stake—a $69 billion deal he was waiting on China to approve.
For months, Chinese regulators wouldn’t clear the U.S. chipmaker’s bid to buy enterprise-software developer VMware, leading Broadcom to put off its date for completion of the deal—first announced in May 2022—three times. Beijing had held up previous mergers involving U.S. companies. Intel’s planned acquisition of Israeli firm Tower Semiconductor TSEM 1.64%increase; green up pointing triangle, for more than $5 billion, was scuttled in August after Chinese regulators failed to approve it.
A few days after the dinner, China signed off on Broadcom’s deal. Beijing also gave a long-awaited green light to New York-based payments processor Mastercard MA 0.20%increase; green up pointing triangle to issue yuan-denominated cards bearing its brand in the country.
Some observers saw the moves as olive branches to American corporations as firms grow wary of doing business in China. The moves also show how companies can become pawns in the intensifying geopolitical competition between Washington and Beijing.
29. China warns South Korea not to politicise economic issues
Reuters, November 26, 2023
30. “Changes Unseen in a Century”: Seeking American Partnership in US Decline
Peter Mattis, Jamestown Foundation, November 21, 2023
31. Alan Tudge helped set up media event for man accused of foreign interference, trial told
Australian Associated Press, The Guardian, November 20, 2023
32. UK white paper raises concerns over China’s growing foreign aid role
Patrick Wintour, The Guardian, November 20, 2023
33. Taiwan Indicted Military Personnel Suspected of Spying for China
Cindy Wang, Bloomberg, November 27, 2023
34. Submarine Diplomacy: A Snapshot of China's Influence along the Bay of Bengal
Matthew P. Funaiole, Brian Hart, Aidan Powers-Riggs, and Jennifer Jun, CSIS, November 17, 2023
35. Relying on old enemies: The challenge of Taiwan's economic ties to China
Jeremy Mark and Niels Graham, Atlantic Council, November 17, 2023
36. David Cameron’s backing of Beijing-funded development raises questions over business dealings
Jon Ungoed-Thomas, Hannah Ellis-Petersen, Amy Hawkins, and Aanya Wipulasena, The Guardian, November 19, 2023
Human Rights and Religious Persecution
37. China: Mosques Shuttered, Razed, Altered in Muslim Areas
Human Rights Watch, November 22, 2023
38. Growing Numbers of Chinese Migrants Cross U.S. Southern Border
Eileen Sullivan, New York Times, November 24, 2023
Industrial Policies and Economic Espionage
39. US and China pitch rival supply-chain visions in latest clash over global trade and economic needs
Khushboo Razdan, South China Morning Post, November 28, 2023
The US and China this week are pitching rival visions of what constitutes a resilient and sustainable supply chain, marking the latest chapter in their fierce competition to assert a global trading system built around their respective economic needs.
Just hours before Beijing was to launch its first international expo on supply chains featuring American tech giants like Tesla, Apple, Intel and Qualcomm under the tagline “connecting the world for a shared future”, US President Joe Biden convened the inaugural meeting of his supply-chain resilience council in Washington on Monday.
40. Rise of the Redback
Selwyn Parker, Lowy Institute, November 27, 2023
41. China’s C919 clears the runway for overseas suppliers, broadening market appeal despite headwinds
Amanda Lee, South China Morning Post, November 29, 2023
42. PBOC Chief Warns of ‘Long and Difficult’ Economic Transformation
Bloomberg, November 27, 2023
43. West's de-risking starts to bite China's prospects
Joe Cash, Ellen Zhang, and Kane Wu, Reuters, November 28, 2023
44. EU and China Between De-risking and Cooperation: Scenarios by 2035
Sylvie Bermann and Elvire Fabry, Jacques Delors Institute, November 22, 2023
45. ‘We were not hard enough’: how past trade tensions inspired Brussels’ fresh China crackdown
Andy Bounds, Financial Times, November 19, 2023
46. Tennessee Zinc Smelter Is at the Center of U.S.-China Trade Fight
Asa Fitch, Wall Street Journal, November 24, 2023
47. How Starbucks Lost the Top Spot in China’s Coffee Race
Heather Haddon and Natasha Khan, Wall Street Journal, November 19, 2023
48. China’s Problem with Unfinished Homes Keeps Getting Bigger
Rebecca Feng and Cao Li, Wall Street Journal, November 19, 2023
49. Why China and Boeing Still Need Each Other
Niraj Chokshi and Keith Bradsher, New York Times, November 22, 2023
Cyber & Information Technology
50. Foxconn Founder Gou Set to Drop Out of Taiwan Presidential Race
Debby Wu and Betty Hou, Bloomberg, November 24, 2023
51. Taiwan's Foxconn seen boosting India iPhone output with $1.5bn plant
Hideaki Ryugen, Nikkei Asia, November 29, 2023
52. Chinese AI Firm SenseTime Dives After Short-Seller Takes Aim
Sarah Zheng, Bloomberg, November 28, 2023
SenseTime Group Inc. shares plummeted their most since April after short-seller Grizzly Research released a report accusing the Chinese AI company of inflating its revenues.
Grizzly cited documents and insiders describing how SenseTime engaged in what it called round-tripping, where it allegedly financed companies that in turn fed business to SenseTime. Its stock tumbled as much as 9.7% before closing about 5% lower in Hong Kong. SenseTime said the report “is without merit and contains unfounded allegations” in a filing to the exchange.
53. Nvidia delays launch of new China-focused AI chip -sources
Fanny Potkin and Yelin Mo, Reuters, November 24, 2023
54. Crypto scam: Inside the billion-dollar ‘pig-butchering’ industry
Poppy Mcpherson and Tom Wilson, Reuters, November 23, 2023
55. Tech war: China approves Broadcom-VMware merger with conditions, in sign of thaw with US
Bloomberg, South China Morning Post, November 22, 2023
56. Netherlands Backs Chinese-Owned Nexperia’s Takeover of Nowi
Diederik Baazil and Cagan Koc, Bloomberg, November 27, 2023
57. Chinese hackers steal chip designs from major Dutch semiconductor company — perps lurked for over two years to steal NXP's chipmaking IP: Report
Anton Shilov, Tom’s Hardware, November 26, 2023
Military and Security Threats
58. Japan and Vietnam upgrade security ties with eye on China
Yuki Fujita and Yuji Nitta, Nikkei Asia, November 28, 2023
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Vietnamese President Vo Van Thuong agreed Monday to work more closely on security, possibly involving Tokyo's new defense aid program, as Hanoi grows more concerned about China's maritime military buildup.
The two sides said they will increase defense-related exchanges and discuss cooperation via Tokyo's Official Security Assistance program, through which Japan gives defense equipment to countries with shared values.
The summit in Tokyo -- Thuong's first visit to Japan since taking office this year -- came as Japan marks its 50th anniversary of formal diplomatic relations with Vietnam and with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
Vietnam, which sits in a key position on a sea lane between the Pacific and Indian oceans, is locked in a territorial dispute with China in the South China Sea, where Beijing has been expanding its military presence, straining the neighbors' close relationship.
Stability in that region is important to Japan, which relies on imported resources such as oil and natural gas. Kishida stressed in the joint statement that Vietnam and ASEAN are "important partners for Japan to realize a Free and Open Indo-Pacific."
Japan's OSA program, a central element of the support discussion, was launched just this year, with the Philippines, Malaysia, Bangladesh and Fiji chosen as the four recipients for the first year.
Kishida visited the Philippines and Malaysia in early November to prepare for a commemorative Japan-ASEAN summit that Tokyo is slated to host in December. Japan agreed to supply coastal radar systems to Manila and continue discussions with Kuala Lumpur on providing equipment.
59. HMAS Toowoomba naval divers forced to exit water over Chinese warship sonar pulses
Andrew Greene, ABC News, November 17, 2023
60. Albanese accuses China of ‘dangerous, unsafe and unprofessional’ behaviour in naval ship altercation
Josh Butler, The Guardian, November 20, 2023
61. Australia and Philippines begin joint patrols in South China Sea as regional tensions rise
The Guardian, November 25, 2023
62. India to Add $5 Billion Aircraft Carrier to Fleet to Counter China
Sudhi Ranjan Sen, Bloomberg, November 28, 2023
India is set to add another aircraft carrier to its fleet worth almost 400 billion rupees ($4.8 billion) as it seeks to counter China’s naval presence in the Indian Ocean region, according to people familiar with the matter.
The Defense Acquisition Council — the country’s top defense decision making body headed by defense minister, Rajnath Singh — is expected to clear the acquisition of its second indigenous carrier on Friday, people with direct knowledge of the development said, asking not to be named because the discussions are private.
63. Australia is floundering over its defence future amid cost blowouts and bureaucratic bungles, as China makes a mockery of Albanese's diplomatic charm offensive
Alexey Muraviev, Sky News, November 18, 2023
64. What can we learn from Taiwan's first civilian-led war game?
Silva Shih, Commonwealth Magazine, November 7, 2023
65. Secret Warnings About Wuhan Research Predated the Pandemic
Katherine Eban, Vanity Fair, November 21, 2023
66. VIDEO – Satellite Images Indicate China Is Upgrading Its Air Bases for War
Wall Street Journal, November 24, 2023
One Belt, One Road Strategy
67. China's MMG seals $1.9 bln deal to buy Khoemacau copper mine in Botswana
Reuters, November 21, 2023
Opinion Pieces
68. From Kyiv to Taipei: Unraveling the impact of space on military power and Taiwan’s daunting prospects
Kenneth Bell, Space News, November 13, 2023
69. America Is a Heartbeat Away from a War It Could Lose
A. Wess Mitchell, Foreign Policy, November 16, 2023
70. A Paradigm Shift in America’s Asia Policy
John Lee, Foreign Affairs, November 21, 2023
71. The Old Military-Industrial Complex Won’t Win a New Cold War
Adrian Wooldridge, Bloomberg, November 27, 2023
China’s rapid advances as a military superpower demand a more creative partnership between Western governments and companies and universities.
72. China’s Phony Diplomatic Narrative Doesn’t Square with Its Escalating Aggression
Chuck Devore, The Federalist, November 28, 2023
73. The China Coast Guard: Wolf in a White Hull
Kevin Edes, Sea Light, November 28, 2023
74. Xi Jinping is sending ominous signals on Taiwan
Josh Rogin, Washington Post, November 21, 2023
75. China Isn’t Backing Off Taiwan
The Editorial Board, Wall Street Journal, November 24, 2023
Josephine Ma, South China Morning Post, November 28, 2023
The sight of hospitals packed with children has attracted widespread attention internationally and reawakened memories of the early days of Covid-19
Beijing’s initial response to the pandemic created a trust deficit that it will struggle to overcome without releasing as much information as it can.
COMMENT – “Beijing’s initial response to the pandemic created a trust deficit”… now there is an understatement.
77. Putin Rewrites History to Justify His Dependence on China
Michael Khodarkovsky, Wall Street Journal, November 24, 2023
78. The World Again Needs American Leadership
Liz Truss, Wall Street Journal, November 26, 2023