Matt Turpin's China Articles - June 25, 2023
Friends,
At the time of this writing, the details surrounding Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mutiny against Putin and the Russian military is still unfolding. After apparently seizing control of Rostov-on-Don, a city of 1 million near the Ukrainian border, it now appears that Prigozhin has cut a deal and will go into exile in Belarus. Reports indicate that the criminal case against him and his mercenary outfit, Wagner Group, have been dropped.
I suspect it will be some time before we have a solid understanding of what happened, the situation in the Kremlin, or the implications on the battlefield in Ukraine.
I also suspect that this is extremely disconcerting for Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party elite. When Xi gave Putin his tacit endorsement for an invasion of Ukraine back in early February 2022, he probably believed, as Putin did, that it was the West that was on the verge of collapse and division.
How things have changed in less than 18 months.
Thanks for reading!
Matt
MUST READ
1. Beijing Plans a New Training Facility in Cuba, Raising Prospect of Chinese Troops on America’s Doorstep
Warren P. Strobel, Gordon Lubold, Vivian Salama, and Michael R. Gordon, Wall Street Journal, June 20, 2023
China and Cuba are negotiating to establish a new joint military training facility on the island, sparking alarm in Washington that it could lead to the stationing of Chinese troops and other security and intelligence operations just 100 miles off Florida’s coast, according to current and former U.S. officials.
Discussions for the facility on Cuba’s northern coast are at an advanced stage but not concluded, U.S. intelligence reports suggest. The Biden administration has contacted Cuban officials to try to forestall the deal, seeking to tap in to what it thinks might be Cuban concerns about ceding sovereignty. Beijing’s effort to establish a military training facility in Cuba hasn’t been previously reported.
2. China Tries to Cancel Badiucao’s Art Show in Poland
Jillian Kay Melchior, Wall Street Journal, June 20, 2023
A senior Chinese diplomat visited the Centre for Contemporary Art in Poland’s capital with an ultimatum: A planned exhibit by Chinese-dissident artist Badiucao “hurts the feelings of the Chinese people and it should not be opened,” museum director Piotr Bernatowicz says the diplomat told him. “It could destroy the good relations between China and Poland.”
Mr. Bernatowicz rejected the demand, and Badiucao’s show opened Friday. RadioFreeEurope/Radio Liberty reports Chinese diplomats also contacted the Polish Ministry of Culture and National Heritage, which partially funds the museum. Mr. Bernatowicz says he received no pressure from the Polish government to shut the exhibit down.
China often attempts to censor speech abroad that’s critical of the Communist Party. Venues in Italy and the Czech Republic defied similar pressure to cancel Badiucao exhibits. The artist, who keeps his real name secret, lives in exile in Australia, where he is a citizen. He says no Australian museum has been willing to host an exhibit of his art, in part because left-leaning administrators are cowed by Beijing’s accusations of anti-Chinese racism.
Badiucao’s experience in Warsaw, however, appears to have stiffened Canberra’s spine. Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs said in a statement that Ambassador Lloyd Brodrick met with the artist before the exhibit opened to discuss his “work, his concerns in relation to personal safety, and the support the Australian government was providing.” Badiucao announced Monday that he was awarded a grant funded by the government for a politically themed graphic novel.
In remarks at the opening of the Warsaw exhibit, Badiucao noted how the fates of Poland and China diverged in 1989 as the Poles threw off communism while Beijing slaughtered protesters in Tiananmen Square. “Every communist regime is similar,” Mr. Bernatowicz told me. “They try to block other types of narratives, and they try to control the narratives of their country.”
Badiucao’s Warsaw exhibit borrows its title from Xi Jinping’s 2013 exhortation to “tell China’s story well.” The art portrays the Tiananmen massacre, the Covid coverup, the genocide of Uyghur Muslims, the destruction of freedom in Hong Kong, and Beijing’s cozy relationship with Moscow. One painting shows Mr. Xi and Vladimir Putin feasting on human flesh.
COMMENT – a classic from Badiucao:
3. Fake News on the Front Line
David Bandurski, China Media Project, June 20, 2023
The story of “Paul Kotzatie,” the bogus Russian soldier from Henan, is not just a case of outlandish CGI fakery. It is a reminder that in China the right to speak, and the right to be heard, is ultimately in the hands of those in power.
For the hundreds of thousands of Chinese fans who flocked in recent weeks to the video channel of a Russian soldier identifying himself as “Paul Kotzatie,” the man’s first-hand account resonated with truths about the war in Ukraine many surely felt they knew. For more than a year, state media reports had claimed, Russia’s aggression notwithstanding, that it was the United States that was primarily to blame for the conflict. Here, speaking from the front lines, was Paul, claiming to have destroyed American tanks and “captured American soldiers alive.”
As proof, Paul displayed captured weapons and equipment to his viewers, and shared footage of what appeared to be live combat action against the backdrop of Ukraine. By early June, Paul’s online store on Kuaishou, one of China’s top short video platforms, had attracted more than 400,000 fans.
But Paul was not Russian, and he was not in Ukraine. The ruse unraveled earlier this month as social media users noted that while Paul’s Russian was halting, he spoke Chinese not just fluently, but with a distinctive Henan accent. Before long, suspicions were confirmed. It was established that his IP address was indeed in Henan province.
As the video account came under widespread scrutiny online, Paul suddenly deleted his previous videos, renaming his account “Wang Kangmei” (王抗美), a false name that translates as “Anti-American Wang.” Soon after, Kuaishou deleted the offending account, and other platforms followed suit.
China’s restrictions on information and content creation in the digital age are formidable, unmatched anywhere in the world. How was it, then, that a patently false account of life on Ukraine’s front lines, rendered with often cringingly poor CGI, was allowed to persist, and even to prosper, for two months?
4. VIDEO – China’s illegal police stations in 53 countries around the world
Tara Brown, 60 Minutes Australia, June 18, 2023
COMMENT – Great piece of investigative journalism from an outlet in Australia that seems unafraid of educating citizens about what the Chinese Communist Party does.
5. China’s university entrance exam promotes Xi Jinping’s cult of personality
Joe Leahy and Sun Yu, Financial Times, June 19, 2023
Zhang, a student from China’s central Henan province, encountered a cryptic essay prompt while taking his university entrance exam this month: “Blowing out other people’s lamps will not make you brighter.”
The Chinese language essay question in China’s notoriously gruelling gaokao, which lasts two days and determines students’ university placements — and often their careers — has become increasingly nationalist in recent years.
But this year, examiners turned directly to “Xi Jinping Thought”, as the collected sayings of China’s president are known, asking students to respond to texts with strongly implied anti-US themes.
In modern China, it is difficult to avoid Xi, the country’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong, and his Marxist musings. The president’s official portrait and banners bearing his slogans plaster shop walls and roadside billboards, and voluminous collections of his essays stock bookstore shelves.
But the embedding of Xi Jinping Thought in China’s education system to indoctrinate potential Communist party members from an impressionable age reflects a leadership anxious about threats to its control and a young generation increasingly disconnected from politics, analysts said.
“We can see the party putting more pressure on society and youth,” said Jean-Pierre Cabestan, emeritus professor at Hong Kong Baptist University. Geopolitical and economic threats “have clearly convinced the party leadership that they need a stronger leader, they need a symbol to glue the society around”.
Another question asked students to consider Xi’s phrase, “A flower blooming alone is not spring, but a hundred flowers blooming together makes the garden full of spring.” The exam said the texts were taken “from the speeches of General Secretary Xi Jinping, which express common truths in vivid language”.
COMMENT – This is no way to prepare one’s citizens for the rigorous critical thinking humanity will need to solve the most difficult challenges.
6. What It Will Take to Deter China in the Taiwan Strait
David Sacks and Ivan Kanapathy, Foreign Affairs, June 15, 2023
Washington Must Take Difficult Steps to Prevent Catastrophe.
…
Although the United States should accept more risk to bolster deterrence and Taiwan’s defensive capabilities, it should avoid symbolic steps that accomplish neither of these goals. High-level U.S. officials should visit Taiwan when there is a compelling reason for doing so—but these visits should be the exception rather than the rule. Renaming Taiwan’s office in the United States, which a bill introduced in Congress in May would do, would not accomplish anything for U.S. interests. Most important, while some are calling for the United States to walk away from its “one China” policy, doing so is more likely to trigger a crisis than to head one off. Policymakers in Washington should continue to make clear that the United States opposes unilateral changes to the status quo, including from Taipei.
This is a demanding agenda. Avoiding war between the United States and China is relatively easy; doing so while also protecting the substantial U.S. interests at stake in the Taiwan Strait will be incredibly difficult. It will require the United States, Taiwan, and other partners to approach cross-strait dynamics with the same seriousness and conviction that China does. If they fail to do so, Taiwan—a close U.S. partner, an economy that plays a vital role in global supply chains, and a vibrant democracy located at a critical juncture in the Indo-Pacific—will be left to China’s whims. As Taiwan and China continue to drift apart, Beijing’s options for unification are shrinking. The United States and its partners must convince China that using force is not a solution.
Authoritarianism
7. Biden calling China's leader a 'dictator' opens new rift just after Blinken's tensions-easing trip
Ellen Knickmeyer and Aamer Madhani, Associated Press, June 21, 2023
President Joe Biden’s remarks calling Chinese leader Xi Jinping a “dictator” and China a country with “real economic difficulties” drew fast condemnation from China on Wednesday, cracking open a new rift just after the two countries agreed to tentative steps to stabilize the relationship.
In Beijing, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning condemned Biden’s unusually pointed comments as “extremely absurd and irresponsible.”
The clash of words comes after Secretary of State Antony Blinken concluded a visit to Beijing on Monday that sought to break the ice in a relationship that has hit a historical low. While both sides saw those talks as productive, they did not result in any significant breakthroughs beyond an agreement to return to a broad agenda for cooperation and competition.
China’s quick response to Biden, a president known for seemingly off-script remarks that venture beyond his administration’s policies, raises questions whether his remarks would undo the limited progress that had been made in Blinken’s carefully engineered trip or whether the two sides would move on.
COMMENT – President Biden is right to call Xi Jinping a dictator… because he is.
See the Merriam-Webster definition: “one holding complete autocratic control; a person with unlimited governmental power; or one ruling in an absolute and often oppressive way.”
8. Biden calls Xi a dictator; Beijing slams remark as ‘provocation’
Bryan Pietsch, Meaghan Tobin and John Hudson, Washington Post, June 20, 2023
9. Biden gambles that delaying sanctions, playing down espionage will improve China relations
Dan De Luce, Carol E. Lee and Courtney Kube, NBC, June 16, 2023
10. China's economic slowdown makes Taiwan crisis more likely: report
Ryo Nakamura, Nikkei Asia, June 20, 2023
11. Die Deutschen wollen verhandeln, die Chinesen schöne Fotos [The Germans want to negotiate, the Chinese want to take pretty pictures]
Christoph Giesen und Christoph Schult, Spiegel, June 19, 2023 – ORIGINAL IN GERMAN
12. Sunak urged to rethink visit by Chinese official linked to forcible removal of dissidents
Patrick Wintour, The Guardian, June 19, 2023
13. Decoding Chinese Politics
Asia Policy Institute, June 2023
14. Knowledge Gaps in Exposing China’s Authoritarian Influence: Cross-regional Conversations with John Fitzgerald, Niva Yau, and Ttcat
Power 3.0., June 13, 2023
15. Jack Ma Isn't Back
Lavender Au, The Wired, June 15, 2023
16. Sunak urged to rethink visit by Chinese official linked to forcible removal of dissidents
Patrick Wintour, The Guardian, June 19, 2023
17. U.S.-Funded Scientist Among Three Chinese Researchers Who Fell Ill Amid Early Covid-19 Outbreak
Michael R. Gordon and Warren P. Strobel, Wall Street Journal, June 20, 2023
18. Does China wield excessive influence in the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank?
Robert Wihtol, Lowy Institute, June 16, 2023
19. AstraZeneca drafts plan to spin off China business amid tensions
Kaye Wiggins, Leo Lewis and Eleanor Olcott in Hong Kong and Hannah Kuchler, Financial Times, June 18, 2023
20. As China’s 618 shopping festival loses steam, Alibaba touts merchant numbers
Tracy Qu, South China Morning Post, June 19, 2023
Environmental Harms
21. BYD's Big Moment
Eliot Chen, The Wire China, June 18, 2023
22. Air pollution in China is falling — but there is a long way to go
Dyani Lewis, Nature, May 1, 2023
Easy gains from upgrading power-plant smokestacks will be strengthened only by deeper policy changes.
Over the past decade, China’s once-pollution-choked skies have steadily improved, according to more than two decades of atmospheric measurements taken by NASA satellites. But researchers say that there is still a long way to go to clean China’s air and protect the health of its citizens.
23. Lula's China Embrace Promises Environmental—and Moral—Pollution
Aaron Rhodes and Charyl Yu, Newsweek, May 10, 2023
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva made environmental protection a central promise of his campaign for the presidency of Brazil. After his victory, Lula said "the world expects Brazil to once again become a leader in tackling the climate crisis and an example of a socially and environmentally responsible country." At the November 2022 UN Climate Change Conference Lula declared, "Brazil is ready to join once again [the] effort to build a healthier planet."
These lofty words cannot be squared with Lula's wholesale embrace of the People's Republic of China, which was on public display during his April visit to Beijing. With a huge delegation of Brazilian businessmen and politicians in tow, Lula sidestepped the fact that China is responsible for about 30 percent of the world's greenhouse gas emissions, and its CO2 emission per capita has been increasing for years. What's more, by deepening ties with China, Lula is inviting even greater environmental destruction into his own country.
For Brazilians, China's disrespect for environmental protection is more than an abstract global problem—it's degrading their air, water, and forests.
Foreign Interference and Coercion
24. China 'deplores' UK security minister's Taiwan meeting
Reuters, June 18, 2023
The Chinese embassy in London on Sunday condemned a meeting last week between Britain's security minister, Tom Tugendhat, and Taiwan's digital minister, saying it violated international relations.
Reuters reported on Friday that Tugendhat had met the Taiwanese Digital Affairs Minister Audrey Tang on Wednesday during a rare high-level ministerial trip to Britain. One source said they had discussed mutual security interests.
COMMENT – Great move by my friend Tom Tugendhat, Minister Audrey Tang and other Taiwanese officials deserve to be treated with the respect we would show any elected representatives of a partner country. Beijing has no right to dictate to other countries who officials can and cannot meet with... that is the kind of respect that Beijing demands that everyone show them.
I’m betting Tom won’t get an invitation to Beijing any time soon, but given that the Party sanctioned him already, it probably isn’t keeping him up at night.
25. Private Eye Found Guilty of Acting as Illegal Chinese Agent
James Fanelli and Isaac Yu, Wall Street Journal, June 20, 2023
Justice Department accused an investigator and two other defendants of harassing a former Chinese official living in New Jersey.
A private investigator and another man were found guilty on Tuesday of acting as illegal agents of the Chinese government in a harassment campaign of a former Chinese official and his family living in New Jersey.
The convictions, by a Brooklyn federal jury, capped the first trial of defendants charged for their alleged participation in Beijing’s “Operation Fox Hunt,” a yearslong effort to forcibly repatriate Chinese nationals living abroad. The Justice Department has sought to root out the harassment campaigns in recent years, bringing cases against alleged Chinese agents while warning that Beijing has sought to recruit American private eyes to aid their efforts.
Michael McMahon, a retired New York Police Department sergeant turned private investigator, was found guilty of three counts. Jurors convicted him of failing to register with the Justice Department as an agent of a foreign country and two charges related to stalking. He was acquitted on a fourth count of conspiring to act as an illegal foreign agent.
One of McMahon’s co-defendants, Chinese national Zhu Yong, was convicted of all four of those same charges. Another co-defendant, Zheng Congying, was acquitted of two charges related to acting as an illegal foreign agent but convicted on two counts of stalking.
The Brooklyn U.S. attorney’s office charged the three defendants in 2020, alleging that they and others conspired to stalk and intimidate Xu Jin, a former Chinese government official, and his family in an effort to scare him into returning to China to serve a 10-year prison sentence. Xu and his wife moved to the U.S. over 10 years ago after he fell out of favor with the Communist Party, according to prosecutors.
At the direction of the Chinese government, Zhu hired McMahon to dig up private information about Xu, surveil his relatives and track down his whereabouts in 2017, prosecutors said. The pressure campaign also included Zheng leaving a threatening message at Xu’s home, warning him to return to China to keep his family safe, they said. Chinese government officials also arranged for Xu’s ailing father to travel from China to the U.S. to tell him that his sister would be jailed if he didn’t return, prosecutors said.
“We will remain steadfast in exposing and undermining efforts by the Chinese government to reach across our border and perpetrate transnational repression schemes targeting victims in the United States,” Brooklyn U.S. Attorney Breon Peace said in a statement after the verdict.
COMMENT – Yet another example of the Chinese Communist Party’s hypocrisy… Beijing claims incessantly that it never interferes in the internal affairs of other countries.
26. A Bank China Built to Challenge the Dollar Now Needs the Dollar
Alexander Saeedy and Lingling Wei, Wall Street Journal, June 16, 2023
27. Blinken to Seek China’s Help Curbing Deadly Fentanyl Traffic in Landmark Visit
William Mauldin, Wall Street Journal, June 17, 2023
28. Germany and China Try to Reset Relations for a Changed World
Erika Solomon and Nicole Hong, New York Times, June 19, 2023
29. New Zealand PM Hipkins to visit China, meet President Xi Jinping
Reuters, June 19, 2023
30. Europe Aims to Cut China Risks, Not China Ties
Kim Mackrael and Laurence Norman, Wall Street Journal, June 20, 2023
31. Brussels urges EU member states to toughen measures against China
Sam Fleming and Andy Bounds, Financial Times, June 20, 2023
Human Rights and Religious Persecution
32. Hong Kong protest anthem's online presence fades as government seeks total ban
Jessie Pang, Reuters, June 14, 2023
33. Tech Firms Should Oppose Protest Song Ban
Human Rights Watch, June 20, 2023
COMMENT – For those of you who are interested, here’s “Glory to Hong Kong.” (with English lyrics)
34. Uniqlo, Zara owners face new Paris lawsuit over Uyghur forced labor
Mailys Pene-Lassus, Nikkei Asia, June 19, 2023
35. China's dirty tactics of intimidation aimed at Australians
60 Minutes Australia, June 18, 2023
36. What genocide? Volkswagen’s morally expensive bet on China
Stuart Lau, Joshua Posaner, and Hans Von Der Burchard, Politico, June 20, 2023
Industrial Policies and Economic Espionage
37. US lawmakers to urge automakers to cut reliance on China
David Shepardson, Reuters, June 19, 2023
38. France presses EU to threaten trade war against China
Barbara Moens, Jakob Hanke Vela, et al, Politico, June 15, 2023
39. How a Chip Guru Left South Korea and Wound Up Accused of Leaking Tech to China
Jiyoung Sohn and Yang Jie, Wall Street Journal, June 15, 2023
40. Beijing raises ‘serious concerns’ over Japan’s arrest of Chinese researcher
Liu Zhen, South China Morning Post, June 19, 2023
41. Top US Chip Gearmaker Accuses China Rival of 14-Month Spy Spree
Debby Wu, Bloomberg, June 15, 2023
42. China’s Delayed Stimulus Adds to Worries Over Slowing Economy
Bloomberg, June 19, 2023
43. Japan-based Chinese Researcher Behind AIST Data Leak May Have Close Ties to Beijing
The Yomiuri Shimbun, Japan News, June 16, 2023
44. The crackdown on foreign firms will deter global business—and undermine China’s own interests
The Economist, June 15, 2023
45. China's COMAC soars, helped by state-backed funding
Kenji Kawase, Nikkei Asia, June 20, 2023
46. Goldman joins Wall Street banks in cutting China's growth outlook as post-Covid bounce fades
Jihye Lee, CNBC, June 19, 2023
47. ByteDance and Alibaba Place Massive GPU Orders with NVIDIA, Fueling the AI Race
Pandaily, June 14, 2023
48. Trends in Trade Between Israel and China Over the Past Decade (2013–2022)
Tomer Fadlon, Institute for National Security Studies, June 18, 2023
49. Wall Street’s China Dream Gets Frustrated—Again
Jacky Wong, Wall Street Journal, June 16, 2023
50. As Ties to China Turn Toxic, Even Chinese Companies Are Breaking Them
Ana Swanson, New York Times, June 15, 2023
51. Investors sour on Beijing’s bid to boost state-owned enterprises
Sun Yu, Financial Times, June 18, 2023
52. Italy strips China’s Sinochem of its influence as Pirelli’s largest investor
Amy Kazmin and Silvia Sciorilli Borrelli, Financial Times, June 18, 2023
53. Why It Seems Everything We Knew About the Global Economy Is No Longer True
Patricia Cohen, New York Times, June 18, 2023
54. Global Stocks Slip as China Stimulus Hopes Fade
Anna Hirtenstein and Weilun Soon, Wall Street Journal, June 19, 2023
55. These Businesses are Getting Hit Hard by China’s Faltering Economic Recovery
Cao Li, Wall Street Journal, June 19, 2023
56. Latest China Test for Western Firms: Consumers Switching to Homegrown Labels
Liza Lin, Wall Street Journal, June 18, 2023
57. As U.S. and Chinese Officials Meet, Businesses Temper Their Hopes
Ana Swanson and David McCabe, New York Times, June 17, 2023
58. Their parents made China the world's factory. Can the kids save the family business?
David Kirton, Reuters, June 19, 2023
59. In Overhaul, Alibaba’s Boss Moves Aside and Two Co-Founders Step Up
Chang Che, New York Times, June 20, 2023
60. Tencent Faces Possible Record Fine for Anti-Money-Laundering Violations
Jing Yang, Wall Street Journal, March 14, 2022
Cyber & Information Technology
61. EU tells members to ban Huawei and ZTE over ‘materially higher risks’
Finbarr Bermingham, South China Morning Post, June 16, 2023
62. Xi Tells Gates China Is Willing to Engage in Tech Cooperation
Bloomberg, June 16, 2023
63. Efter granskningen: Myndigheter kan koppla ned Volvobilar [ After the review: Authorities can disconnect Volvo cars]
Mikael Grill Pettersson, Fredrik Önnevall, and Kenneth Ulander, SVT, June 12, 2023 - ORIGINAL IN SWEDISH
64. Jack Ma conducts first class as visiting professor at University of Tokyo
Tracy Qu, South China Morning Post, June 17, 2023
65. iPhone maker Foxconn to switch to cars as US-China ties sour
Karishma Vaswani and Lionel Lim, BBC, June 15, 2023
66. EU looks to ban companies from making sensitive tech in China
Jakob Hanke Vela and Barbara Moens, Politico, June 20, 2023
67. China's ByteDance Has Gobbled Up $1 Billion of Nvidia GPUs for AI This Year
Francisco Pires, Tom’s Hardware, June 17, 2023
68. Micron nears $1 billion investment in India chip packaging plant, Bloomberg reports
Reuters, June 16, 2023
Military and Security Threats
69. New EU Toolkit Has China in Its Sights. Now Comes the Hard Bit
Alberto Nardelli and Jorge Valero, Bloomberg, June 20, 2023
70. When it comes to a war with Taiwan, many Chinese urge caution
The Economist, June 19, 2023
71. The U.S. worries about private Chinese companies aiding Russia, Blinken says.
Edward Wong, New York Times, June 19, 2023
72. US beats China to build new military bases in Papua New Guinea
Nicola Smith, The Telegraph, June 15, 2023
73. U.S. Grapples with Potential Threats from Chinese AI
Andrew Duehren and Ryan Tracy, Wall Street Journal, June 16, 2023
74. Xi Jinping’s dream of a Chinese military-industrial complex
Edward White and Sun Yu, Financial Times, June 19, 2023
75. NATO’s Largest-Ever Aerial Wargame Has Russia, China in Mind
Bojan Pancevski, Wall Street Journal, June 20, 2023
76. U.S. Tracked Huawei, ZTE Workers at Suspected Chinese Spy Sites in Cuba
Kate O’Keeffe, Wall Street Journal, June 21, 2023
One Belt, One Road Strategy
77. Pakistani Taliban's 'shadow province' threatens China BRI projects
Adnan Aamir, Nikkei Asia, June 21, 2023
Opinion Pieces
78. An airliner with Chinese characteristics
Kazimier Lim, The Interpreter, June 13, 2023
79. Collective consistency is the answer to Beijing’s trade coercion
Justin Bassi, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, June 16, 2023
80. Economic diplomacy: Dueling D-words to delineate China
Greg Earl, The Interpreter, June 8, 2023
81. The U.S. Needs a Bolder Strategy to Prevent Conflict with China Over Taiwan
Susan M. Gordon, Michael G. Mullen and David Sacks, Council on Foreign Relations, June 2023
A conflict between the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC, or China) over Taiwan is becoming increasingly imaginable, a result of China’s growing military capabilities and assertiveness, the emergence and coalescence of a separate Taiwanese identity, and evolving U.S. calculations about its interests at stake in the Taiwan Strait. If deterrence fails and a war erupts, the result would be calamitous for Taiwan, China, the United States, and the world, resulting in thousands of casualties on all sides and a profound global economic depression.
The United States has critical strategic interests in the Taiwan Strait. If China were to successfully annex Taiwan against the will of the Taiwanese people, doing so on the heels of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it would severely undermine international order by again demonstrating that countries can use coercion or force to unilaterally redraw borders. If China were to station its military on the island, the United States would find it far more difficult to project power, defend its treaty allies, and operate in international waters in the Western Pacific. U.S. influence would wane because its allies would question U.S. commitment to their defense and either accommodate China or pursue strategic autonomy. A war in the Taiwan Strait would also halt the production and shipment of the majority of the world’s semiconductors, paralyzing global supply chains and ushering in a severe economic crisis. Finally, if China were to take control of Taiwan, it would spell the end of a liberal democracy and have chilling effects on democracies around the world. The Task Force thus finds that it is vital for the United States to deter China from using force or coercion to achieve unification with Taiwan.
82. America Still Leads the World, But Its Allies Are Uneasy
Niall Ferguson, Bloomberg, June 18, 2023
83. Fentanyl Is a Growth Industry in China’s Weakening Economy
Thomas J. Duesterberg, Wall Street Journal, June 19, 2023
84. How to fight the Mexican and Chinese fentanyl cartels driving biggest money laundering scheme in history
David Asher and Jaime Puerta, New York Post, August 22, 2022
85. China Accepts the New Indo-Pacific Reality
Walter Russell Mead, Wall Street Journal, June 19, 2023
86. China Is Ready for a World of Disorder
Mark Leonard, Foreign Affairs, June 20, 2023
87. A Growing India Is Good for the U.S.
David Malpass, Wall Street Journal, June 20, 2023
88. How Hong Kong’s multinationals and global funds are preparing for the worst
Leo Lewis, Financial Times, June 18, 2023