Matt Turpin's China Articles - March 19, 2023
Friends,
Lots of material this week because frankly, there is a lot happening. Just to give you some thumbnails of the kinds of tectonic shifts that are underway:
· Over the past week during the ‘two sessions’ (the annual meeting of the PRC’s rubber-stamp legislature, the National People’s Congress, and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference), Xi Jinping gave four speeches about preparing the PRC for war.
· South Korean President Yoon and Japanese Prime Minister Kishida meet to normalize security ties and restart their trade dialogue.
· The PRC Government announced that Xi would visit Moscow to meet with Putin next week… and hours later the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin over war crimes in Ukraine. (Note: the CCP demands that the rest of the world refrain from meeting with Taiwanese officials or treating Taiwan as an independent country, yet Xi Jinping has no problem meeting with a leader wanted for war crimes… perhaps its time we re-evaluate our collective acknowledgement of ‘One China.’)
· The United States Government and publicly available trade data reveal that Beijing has been supplying arms and ammunition to Moscow for months and some of it has been detected on the battlefield in Ukraine.
· Beijing engineered the re-establishment of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, while simultaneously holding a joint Chinese-Russian-Iranian military exercise for five days in the Gulf of Oman.
· The German Government plans to ban Huawei and ZTE… and next week send a sitting Federal Minister to Taipei while Chancellor Scholz warned Beijing not to use force against Taiwan.
· The controversy over PRC political interference in Canada, and the perception that Prime Minister Trudeau and his Liberal Party turned a blind-eye to it, continues to expand.
· The rushed roll-out of Baidu’s version of ChatGPT flops.
· The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank hastens the unravelling of financial ties between U.S. venture capitalists and their PRC partners.
· … and what seems like ages ago, but was only last Monday, President Biden hosted Prime Ministers Albanese and Sunak in San Diego for the formal roll-out of support to Australia by the United States and the United Kingdom for nuclear-powered submarines under the AUKUS agreement.
Thanks for reading!
Matt
MUST READ
1. Xi Doubles Down On Putin In A Symbolic Moscow Trip With The Ukraine War In Focus
Reid Standish, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, March 17, 2023
On March 22, 2013, Chinese leader Xi Jinping made his first foreign trip to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin and highlight the growing importance of Beijing-Moscow ties and send a signal to Washington that a geopolitical counterweight to the West was being formed.
During that landmark visit, the leaders expressed admiration for one another, with Putin saying the two countries were forging a special relationship, while Xi added that the Russian leader was his “good friend” and that he and Putin shared a “similar personality.”
Ten years later, the fruits of that personal bond between the men at the top and the long-term quest by China to forge deeper ties with its northern neighbor will be on display as Xi heads to Moscow on March 20 for a three-day visit and his 40th face-to-face meeting with Putin.
Xi has tried to put distance between China and Russia in recent months, especially as Russian forces have faced setbacks on the battlefield in Ukraine. In a sign of a growing Chinese conviction to play a part in brokering peace, Xi is also ready to hold his first phone call since the war began with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, according to The Wall Street Journal. Kyiv has not confirmed that a call will take place, and the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry declined to comment when asked by RFE/RL.
But beyond China’s diplomatic tightrope and Xi’s desire to burnish his status as a global statesman, experts say the visit to Moscow reflects a doubling down by Xi in supporting Putin as part of a longstanding bet on Russia as a Chinese partner needed to push back against the United States in the superpower competition.
“Make no mistake,” wrote Alexander Gabuev, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “The trip will be about deepening ties to [Russia] that benefit Beijing, not about any real peace brokering.”
COMMENT – Hours before this trip became public, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin for war crimes in Ukraine.
2. Use of Chinese ammunition in Ukraine confirmed by U.S.
Japan Times, March 18, 2023
The United States has confirmed that rounds of Chinese ammunition have been used in battlefields in Ukraine and suspects they were fired by Russian forces, government sources said Friday.
Whether the ammunition was supplied by China remains unclear, the U.S. administration sources said, while adding Washington is poised to take action if it is verified Beijing made the shipments.
Amid a myriad of disagreements between the United States and China, officials have recently said Washington possesses intelligence indicating that Beijing is considering sending arms and ammunition to Russia.
COMMENT – The PRC and Russia share a 4300 km (2700 mile) border, if PRC state-owned defense companies (the only entities that make ammunition in China and entities that are under the strict control of Beijing) have the tacit approval to provide their wares to their Russian counterparts, we would only likely detect that transfer when the rounds impact Ukrainian positions… which apparently has been happening.
For a year, leaders in the U.S. and Europe have convinced themselves that Xi couldn’t possibly want to risk the PRC’s economic relationship with them over military support for Putin. As with many other assumptions we’ve made about decision-making in Beijing, it appears that we are wrong again.
3. Translation: ‘Plan for the Overall Layout of Building a Digital China’
Graham Webster, Kevin Neville, Seaton Huang, and Zac Haluza, Stanford University’s DigiChina, March 3, 2023
CCP Central Committee and Chinese government announce a new plan for China's digital development.
4. Saudi Arabia, Iran Restore Relations in Deal Brokered by China
Stephen Kalin, Benoit Faucon, Vivian Salama, and David S. Cloud, Wall Street Journal, March 10, 2023
China’s steps towards a presence in the Middle East that is not purely commercial. Their advancements might rival the interests of the US, which hopes to oversee the Saudi-Israeli peace deal and curtail Tehran’s appetite for developing its nuclear program. The agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran was arranged under Beijing’s auspices after a seven year-long pause in the countries’ diplomatic relations.
5. U.S. translation project opens window on China's ambitions, fears
Ken Moriyasu, Nikkei Asia, March 7, 2023
CSIS think tank's archive aims to enhance understanding, avoid 'escalation spiral'
The Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank, has quietly built up an archive of 200 translations of recent Chinese speeches, academic papers and government documents in hopes of offering a better understanding of Beijing's ambitions, fears and how it sees its own capabilities.
The "Interpret: China" project models itself after how the U.S. sought a laserlike understanding of the Soviet leadership during the Cold War. "All too often we're relying on what others are saying about China, but we want to stop and listen to the discussion, the dialogue, the discourse that's happening within the country," the project's co-director, Jude Blanchette, CSIS Freeman Chair in China Studies, explains on the website.
COMMENT – Within three days of the publication of this article in Nikkei Asia, CNKI (China National Knowledge Infrastructure, a publishing company in the PRC which distributes academic papers) terminated CSIS’s access to these articles. And according to other projects that rely on these documents, CNKI has cut off their access as well.
The project’s co-director, Jude Blanchette told me: “it’s a bit rich for Beijing to both complain that we don’t understand it, and then cut off access to a small initiative designed to…better understand it.”
Michael Beckley, The Conversation, March 1, 2023
Beckley makes five observations from the first hearing of the House Select Committee on China: The days of engagement are over; Reframing the debate around competition; Confronting China’s leaders, not its people; Reshaping policy on three fronts: Taiwan, Economic Competitiveness, and Human Rights; and a typical boilerplate response from Beijing.
7. Bundesregierung will Komponenten von Huawei und ZTE verbieten [Federal government wants to ban components from Huawei and ZTE] – ORIGINAL IN GERMAN
Kai Biermann, Zeit Online, March 6, 2023
The federal government plans to ban mobile operators from installing certain controls from Chinese manufacturers Huawei and ZTE in their 5G networks. ZEIT ONLINE learned this from government circles. This ban should also affect components that have already been installed by the providers. That would force companies to retool.
The Federal Office for Information Security (BSI) and the Federal Ministry of the Interior have been checking for months whether there are components in the systems of the currently growing 5G network that could endanger German security. The authorities are concerned that suppliers from countries such as China are controlled by their governments and that they could have direct or indirect access to German mobile networks. This test has not yet been officially completed, but the result is now apparently certain.
8. ‘It Is Especially Scary to See Students’: Professors in China React to New Levels of Control in Their Classroom
Jue Jiang, ChinaFile, March 13, 2023
Xi Jinping’s policies offer a Orwellian twist on academic freedom in China. High-tech cameras monitor the classroom activities to denounce teachers who slip into “immoral” speech. This system is supplemented by a chain of student informants who report on ideological deviations of their teachers.
9. China’s AI Chatbots Clam Up When Asked About Xi Jinping’s Leadership
Shen Lu, Wall Street Journal, March 15, 2023
Baidu has developed its own version of OpenAI’s ChatGPT that some have dubbed as ‘ChatCCP’. The chatbot declines to answer questions related to Chinese or American politics and tries to change the topic when asked to assess the leadership of Xi Jinping.
10. China’s ChatGPT rival Baidu Ernie is off to a rough start
Rita Liao, TechCrunch, March 16, 2023
Following on the heels of GPT-4’s buzzy debut and the announcement of Microsoft 365’s AI makeover, Baidu, China’s search engine giant, introduced its Ernie Bot.
Since ChatGPT blew the world away, Baidu has been widely considered the closest Chinese candidate to build an equivalent to the OpenAI chatbot. Naturally, Ernie’s launch was much anticipated. On Thursday, Baidu CEO Robin Li gave a one-hour presentation on Ernie that only offered a small glimpse into the chatbot. The jury is still out on what Ernie can do and how it actually works.
For now, Ernie is only available for testing through invitation and others need to get on a waitlist. TechCrunch hasn’t tried it yet, so it’s unfair to draw any conclusions about Ernie’s capability.
But the public was clearly underwhelmed. Industry observers inside and outside China pointed to the fact that rather than showcasing Ernie through a live demo, Baidu opted for a lengthy presentation with pre-recordings of Ernie’s answers. The company’s shares slumped as much as 10% in Hong Kong following Li’s presentation.
AUTHORITARIANISM
11. Xi Jinping vows to make Chinese military ‘great wall of steel’ as tensions rise with west
Ryan McMorrow and Joe Leahy, and Cheng Leng, Financial Times, March 13, 2023
As China’s relationship with the West has hit the record low of the past decades, Xi Jinping, following his unanimous re-election, promises to strengthen the Chinese military. Li Qiang, the newly chosen premier, emphasizes the economic efforts lying ahead, including meeting the 5% growth target.
12. The Completed Construction of the Xi Jinping System of Governance
Scott Kennedy et al, CSIS, March 15, 2023
China just concluded the first session of the 14th National People’s Congress (NPC), which saw the announcement of the line-up of new government leaders and the adoption of a series of institutional reforms. The annual NPC – often called the “Two Sessions” in local parlance because a second parallel meeting of government advisors occurs at the same time – is often a boring affair with some hyperbolic statements about recent achievements and future successes.
But last week’s meeting, while having some of the same theatrics that make one’s eyes roll, marks a genuine historic turning point for the country. Xi Jinping long ago consolidated his own power, reflected in his receiving a third term in October 2022 of General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), stuffing the Politburo with officials entirely dependent on him, and restructuring the military to be firmly under his control. But this session is significant because the decisions announced at NPC show that he has now absorbed the entire governmental apparatus into his orbit and direct control. Governance in Xi’s “New Era” is now fully developed.
COMMENT – An absolutely fascinating chart from Scot Kennedy’s latest analysis of the PRC’s Governance system. The competition of ideas that once animated PRC economic policy has come to resemble the Party’s demand for absolute ideological purity in the political realm. This should be terrifying for any foreign investor or foreign multinational operating inside the PRC.
13. Swiss banks say rich Chinese clients worried about sanction prospects
Sam Jones and Owen Walker, Financial Times, March 8, 2023
14. Xi Jinping Brings China’s Reform Era to an End
Lingling Wei, The Wall Street Journal, March 12, 2023
Bit by bit, the Chinese leader has torn down the governance model Deng Xiaoping built four decades ago.
A decade into Xi Jinping’s rule, the puzzle pieces of his designs for China are in place, marking a definitive end to Deng Xiaoping’s reform-and-opening era.
Four decades ago, Deng, a short, stocky survivor of the Cultural Revolution, kicked off an effort to unshackle China from the ideological turmoil of Mao Zedong’s rule, embrace capitalist forces and open China to the West.
The past week has put in stark relief how, bit by bit, Mr. Xi has torn down the fundaments of the Chinese governance model that Deng built.
Where Deng introduced a collective-leadership system to protect against one-man rule, gave private enterprise wider room to flourish and marked a separation between the party and the government, Mr. Xi has done away with term limits, narrowed the scope for the private sector and placed the party—and himself—at the center of Chinese society.
At a legislative congress concluding Monday, Mr. Xi has set in motion changes to further emphasize the party’s leadership over all aspects of governance. He paved the way for giving the party more direct control of the country’s financial and technology sectors and pledged to cut the staff of the central government by 5%.
Deng’s reforms transformed China from a poor, closed nation into an economic superpower and a stable driver of global growth. It is becoming increasingly clear that the shift under Mr. Xi marks an end to the China the world had gotten to know in the past four decades—bringing with it the potential for major global uncertainty.
“The separation of the party and the state was a key design feature of China’s reform era,” said Richard McGregor, author of “The Party” and a senior fellow at the Lowy Institute, a Sydney-based foreign-policy think tank. “Xi has long said that the separation is redundant. Now we’re seeing his views put into practice.”
COMMENT – Richard McGregor’s point bears repeating: Deng’s key innovation was to separate the party and the state… Xi has ended that innovation.
15. Framing China’s Health Experts
China Media Project, March 9, 2023
When experts provide neutral and apolitical input, policies on public health can benefit enormously. When propaganda and censorship stand in the way, this does more than damage general well-being — it destroys the credibility of experts in the public eye.
When China scrapped mandatory quarantine for foreign arrivals on January 9th this year, the last pillar propping up the government’s “zero Covid” regime came crashing down. The decision marked the final collapse not just of a policy that had defined life in China for three years, but also of the scaffolding of expert opinion that had long supported these measures.
Suddenly, leading epidemiologists who had publicly made scientific cases for adhering to lockdown measures were talking about the science of completely scrapping them, with slippery words like “optimization.” The before-and-after contrasts, laid out in posts like this one on Chinese social media, seemed to beg a fundamental question: What good are health experts if politics leads their science by the nose?
16. China and Taiwan Relations Explained: What’s Behind the Divide
Josh Chin, Wall Street Journal, March 10, 2023
17. Analysis: China role in Saudi, Iran deal a tricky test for U.S.
Phil Stewart and Michelle Nichols, Reuters, March 11, 2023
The surprise deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore diplomatic ties offers much for the United States to be intrigued about, including a possible path to rein in Tehran's nuclear program and a chance to cement a ceasefire in Yemen.
It also contains an element sure to make officials in Washington deeply uneasy - the role of China as peace broker in a region where the U.S. has long wielded influence.
The deal was announced after four days of previously undisclosed talks in Beijing between the Middle East rivals. White House spokesperson John Kirby said on Friday that while Washington was not directly involved, Saudi Arabia kept U.S. officials informed of the talks with Iran.
Relations between the U.S. and China have become highly contentious over issues ranging from trade to espionage and increasingly the two powers compete for influence in parts of the world far from their own borders.
18. China weighs 'emergency' fast track for laws as Taiwan tensions mount
Tsukasa Hadano, Nikkei Asia, March 9, 2023
19. Nanjing university suspends lecturer after comments about imported food, US guns
Gu Ting, Radio Free Asia, March 10, 2023
Authorities in the eastern Chinese city of Nanjing are investigating a university lecturer for making "inappropriate remarks" after he told his class that China is currently dependent on food imports from the United States and Europe, alongside other pro-U.S. comments running counter to ruling Chinese Communist Party narratives, according to recent social media posts.
The lecturer was named on social media as Chen Saibin from the school of economics and management at the Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics.
"Social media posts currently circulating about a lecturer from this university who made inappropriate remarks have prompted concern and public debate," the university's Communist Party committee said in a statement on March 9.
"We take this very seriously, and have immediately set in motion an investigation," it said. "The lecturer's classes will be suspended for the duration of the investigation."
20. Key takeaways from China's annual NPC parliamentary meeting
Laurie Chen, Reuters, March 13, 2023
China's rubber-stamp parliament concluded its annual meeting on Monday, during which Xi Jinping was confirmed as president for a precedent-breaking third term and installed many of his allies in top government roles.
21. 'Red Guards’ song and dance for model worker prompts shock, anger over Mao's legacy
Xiaoshan Huang, Radio Free Asia, March 7, 2023
22. How Severe Are China’s Demographic Challenges?
CSIS China Power Project, March 6, 2023
23. Hong Kong ice hockey body could face sanctions after anthem blunder, as John Lee calls such gaffes ‘unacceptable’
Candice Chau, Hong Kong Free Press, March 13, 2023
Pro-democracy protest song Glory to Hong Kong was played at an Ice Hockey World Championship match between Hong Kong and Iran in Bosnia and Herzegovina last month, instead of the city’s official national anthem, China’s March of the Volunteers.
24. Prestigious Pasteur Institute severs ties with China infectious disease lab
Smriti Mallapaty, Nature, March 9, 2023
The influential Pasteur Institute in Paris says it has suspended its partnership with the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing, and will cease to co-lead an institute in Shanghai, Nature has learnt.
The Pasteur Institute of Shanghai was established in 2004 as a scientific partnership between France and China, focused on infectious-disease research. Over the years, researchers at the institute have studied viruses from hepatitis C to Ebola, Zika, HIV and SARS-CoV-2, and contributed to the development of vaccines and treatments, including a candidate drug to treat hand, foot and mouth disease, and a norovirus vaccine. As of last August, the institute had 146 staff members, including 35 principal investigators, as well as 29 postdoctoral fellows. Roughly 9% of the staff and postdoctoral fellows had a non-Chinese background.
But a spokesperson for the Pasteur Institute told Nature that the organization decided to cease co-leading the Pasteur Institute of Shanghai with CAS in December 2022, after a year of dialogue between the two organizations. “This choice was made in order to begin a new cycle of conversations for improving the relationship between the two organizations and finding a more productive way to work together,” they said.
As a result, the Pasteur Institute is no longer involved in the activities of the Pasteur Institute of Shanghai, which is now being supervised by CAS, and the Chinese facility’s name will change, the spokesperson said.
COMMENT – After a year of dialogue between the two scientific institutions they could not come to an agreement to continue their partnership… every scientific institution should take note.
25. To Rein in China’s Banks, Xi Uses Familiar Playbook
Daisuke Wakabayashi and Claire Fu, New York Times, March 14, 2023
Xi Jinping is revamping China’s regulatory framework so the ruling Communist Party can assert more direct control over financial policy.
To a man with a hammer, a renowned psychologist once posited, everything looks like a nail.
For most of his decade in power, Xi Jinping, China’s leader, has usually arrived at the same conclusion for how best to deal with the country’s issues: get the Communist Party more involved. And now, as China is confronting an economy lacking the dynamism of the past and teetering from a real estate sector in crisis and local governments overrun with debt, Mr. Xi is again wielding his hammer.
At the annual gathering of China’s national legislature, which concluded on Monday, Mr. Xi introduced a series of sweeping changes to the country’s regulatory framework, allowing the party’s top leaders to assert more direct control over financial policy and bank regulation. Appointments for allies of Mr. Xi to key regulatory roles and additional shake-ups are expected in the coming days, further cementing the party’s oversight of the financial system.
“It’s very consistent with what Xi Jinping has been rolling out over the past 10 years,” said Max Zenglein, chief economist at the Mercator Institute for China Studies in Berlin. “Whenever he’s confronted with a problem, the solution is greater centralization to the party.”
The moves were the latest evidence of how Mr. Xi continues to reshape China’s business climate, steering the world’s second-largest economy away from the free-market policies that underpinned its ascent. While past Chinese leaders sought to maintain a buffer between the party and the private sector, Mr. Xi has erased those lines and made clear that businesses are there to advance the party’s agenda.
26. China’s internet watchdog ramps up campaign against social media misinformation, silences Shanghai talk show star after post on Russia
Lilian Zhang, South China Morning Post, March 14, 2023
China’s internet regulator has kicked off a two-month campaign targeting misinformation and “illegal profit-making” across all domestic social media platforms, as Beijing continues to reinforce its control over the country’s closed cyberspace.
Internet watchdog the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) said its latest initiative from March 12 aims to “purify [the] internet environment and promote social stability”, which it asserted as “an inevitable requirement for winning the online ideological battle, and maintaining national and political security”, according to the announcement sent to its local regulators nationwide.
This crackdown is especially focused on short video and live-streaming platforms, where rumours and other harmful information could be disseminated to “distort and reverse the truth and incite negative emotions”, which could “damage the image of the Communist Party and the government, and interfere with socio-economic development”.
One of those targeted by the CAC’s latest campaign was Shanghai comedian and talk show star Zhou Libo, who has been banned from posting on ByteDance-owned Chinese microblogging platform Toutiao where he has 2.93 million followers. Zhou was punished after recently suggesting in a post that China’s national rejuvenation should include an effort to take back land that Russia seized in the 19th century, referring to the Amur Annexation.
ENVIRONMENTAL HARMS
27. US to Expand Monitoring Program Against IUU Fishing
Julieta Pelcastre, Dialogo Americas, March 14, 2023
IUU fishing contributes directly to overfishing, threatens the sustainability of fisheries and marine ecosystems, and undermines coastal communities and food security, India-based maritime news site Marine Insight indicated.
IUU fishing also destabilizes the security of maritime countries, economically harms legally operating fishermen, and often involves human trafficking, forced labor, and other human rights abuses.
According to InSight Crime, an international organization that investigates organized crime in Latin America and the Caribbean, IUU fishing also often goes hand in hand with other crimes such as narcotics trafficking. “China has been consistently ranked as the world’s worst offender of IUU fishing, due to its monumental fishing fleet in remote waters,” the organization pointed out.
In a December 6, 2022 report ADF, U.S. Africa Command’s magazine, reported that eight of the world’s top 10 companies involved in IUU fishing are Chinese.
Hundreds of Chinese vessels operate in Latin American waters year-round, and have long been accused of plundering two major fishing grounds: the waters off Argentina in the South Atlantic and those off Chile, Peru, and Ecuador in the South Pacific, InSight Crime said.
FOREIGN INTERFERENCE AND COERCION
28. Two high-level memos allege Beijing covertly funded Canadian election candidates
Sam Cooper, Global News, March 8, 2023
Justin Trudeau said he was never briefed on the issue, and his security adviser has dismissed it out of hand, but two high-level national security reports before and after the 2019 election suggest they were warned that Chinese government officials were funnelling money to Canadian political candidates.
The two intelligence reports, from 2019 and 2022, raise questions about what senior federal officials knew about the alleged funding by a foreign interference network and how seriously the Trudeau government took the warnings.
One is a “Special Report” prepared by the Privy Council Office for the Trudeau government and was date-stamped January 2022. The memo was also finalized, suggesting it was intended to be read by Trudeau and his senior aides.
Reviewed by Global News, it asserted that Chinese officials in Toronto had disbursed money into a covert network tasked to interfere in Canada’s 2019 election.
“A large clandestine transfer of funds earmarked for the federal election from the PRC Consulate in Toronto was transferred to an elected provincial government official via a staff member of a 2019 federal candidate,” the PCO report stated.
This document was derived from 100 Canadian Security Intelligence Service reports and was produced by the Intelligence Assessment Secretariat. The IAS is a division of the PCO that regularly provides national security alerts for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his cabinet.
A national security official explaining this report to Global News said the finalized memo was about intelligence gleaned from an ongoing, high-level probe in the Greater Toronto Area launched in January 2019.
Global News granted Intelligence sources anonymity, which they requested because they risk prosecution under the Security of Information Act.
Intelligence sources say the provincial official named in connection with the alleged clandestine transfer from the Toronto consulate is a member of Ontario’s legislature.
Asked to confirm whether CSIS director David Vigneault has briefed Trudeau or his staff and cabinet on the covert-funding allegations, a CSIS spokesman said, “There are important limits to what I can publicly discuss given the need to protect sensitive activities, techniques, methods, and sources of intelligence.”
“Regarding specific briefings on foreign interference, during committee proceedings last week, Director Vigneault committed to working with Privy Council Office on a consolidated response to parliamentarians,” CSIS spokesman Eric Balsam wrote.
29. Outgoing president of Micronesia accuses China of bribery, threats and interference
Ben Doherty and Kate Lyons, The Guardian, March 10, 2023
China is engaged in “political warfare” in the Pacific, the outgoing president of the Federated States of Micronesia has alleged in an excoriating letter, accusing Beijing officials of bribing elected officials in Micronesia, and even “direct threats against my personal safety”.
Two months before his term as president expires, David Panuelo’s letter alleged China was preparing for conflict over the island of Taiwan, and that its goal in interfering in the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) was to render the country neutral in any potential Pacific war.
“China is seeking to ensure that, in the event of a war in our Blue Pacific continent between themselves and Taiwan, that the FSM is, at best, aligned with the PRC [China] instead of the United States, and, at worst, that the FSM chooses to ‘abstain’ altogether.”
30. Canada starts setting up foreign agent registry amid reports of Chinese election meddling
Steve Scherer, Reuters, March 10, 2023
31. Trudeau faces fury of Canadian MPs over alleged Chinese election meddling
Leyland Cecco, The Guardian, March 9, 2023
32. Taiwan’s president Tsai Ing-wen to receive leadership award in New York
Demetri Sevastopulo, Financial Times, March 9, 2023
33. Oscars go ahead with actor Donnie Yen in presenter role despite protest, petition
Cheryl Tung, Radio Free Asia, March 13, 2023
34. China slams Manila again over closer US military ties, warns against ‘drawing wolves into the house’
Shi Jiangtao, South China Morning Post, March 14, 2023
35. Honduras president says govt to seek official relations with China
Gustavo Palencia and Ben Blanchard, Reuters, March 15, 2023
Honduran President Xiomara Castro said on Tuesday she had asked the country's foreign minister to open official relations with China, pressuring Taiwan ahead of a sensitive visit by President Tsai Ing-wen to the United States and Central America.
China does not allow countries with which it has diplomatic relations to maintain official ties with Taiwan, which it claims as its own territory with no right to state-to-state ties, a position Taiwan strongly disputes.
36. TikTok hires Biden-connected firm as it finds itself under D.C.’s microscope
Daniel Lippman, Politico, March 9, 2023
TikTok, the wildly popular Chinese-owned social media app, has hired top Biden-connected consulting firm SKDK as it faces increasing scrutiny in Washington, according to two people, including one with direct knowledge of the hire.
The public affairs and political consulting firm is providing communications support to the company, which has come under government scrutiny, with senators recently introducing a bipartisan bill empowering Biden to restrict or potentially ban the service.
37. Biden’s TikTok Dilemma: A Ban Could Hurt Democrats More Than Republicans
John D. McKinnon, The Wall Street Journal, March 13, 2023
Many Republicans and some Democrats are clamoring for action to address a perceived security risk from Chinese-owned TikTok, but one political leader has been largely silent: President Biden.
Mr. Biden and his aides have demurred when asked about potential actions to restrict TikTok, saying they are awaiting recommendations from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S., or Cfius.
“I’m not sure,” Mr. Biden said recently when asked if the U.S. should ban TikTok. “I know I don’t have it on my phone.”
The Cfius negotiations over TikTok have been dragging on since 2019, however—leading some Republicans to say Mr. Biden is ducking the issue because of the political risk in taking on the hugely popular app, which has more than 100 million regular users in the U.S. alone.
A major unspoken problem for the president, according to political strategists, is that trying to force an outright ban on TikTok—as many Republicans are seeking—would sacrifice what is emerging as a vital campaign asset for Democrats with the 2024 election season looming.
“Right now TikTok can be a valuable weapon, especially since Republicans have run away from it for political reasons,” said Bradley Beychok, co-founder of American Bridge 21st Century, an independent political committee that backs Democratic candidates. “You wouldn’t want a tool like that to be taken off the shelf.”
TikTok’s audience is predominantly younger people, who typically favor Democrats by wide margins.
Turnout among younger voters surged in 2018, 2020 and 2022, helping the party deliver Republicans political setbacks. Unusually high turnout among younger voters in the 2022 midterm elections was credited with helping the party maintain control of the Senate and also limit its losses in the House.
For Democrats, a key to reaching those younger voters has been TikTok, according to consultants in both parties. That advantage has been sharpened by many Republicans’ refusal to use the platform because of its perceived security risks, Democratic strategists say.
“Especially among Gen Z voters, it is the dominant platform,” one Democratic consultant said. “If we’re going to turn out young voters…we’ve got to have things they actually like and do…”
Banning TikTok ahead of the next election cycle, the consultant added, would be “politically insane.”
Mr. Biden’s Commerce secretary, Gina Raimondo, acknowledged the political risk of a ban in a recent interview with Bloomberg.
“The politician in me thinks you’re gonna literally lose every voter under 35, forever,” she said.
Ms. Raimondo’s comment drew a rebuke from Sen. Marco Rubio (R., Fla.), who says he believes that the Chinese-owned app could be forced by Beijing to share data on its users or influence the content shown to users.
“A lot of Democrat candidates, a lot of Democrat officeholders have TikTok accounts,” Mr. Rubio said on Fox Radio’s “Brian Kilmeade Show.” “Democratic political operatives believed that TikTok is politically advantageous for them. And so they kind of want to look tough on China, but they don’t want to crack down on this website.”
38. The FBI And DOJ Are Investigating ByteDance’s Use Of TikTok To Spy On Journalists
Emily Baker-White, Forbes, March 16, 2023
Months before the U.S. government demanded ByteDance divest from TikTok, the Department Of Justice’s Criminal Division subpoenaed the app’s Chinese parent company, according to a source.
According to a source in position to know, the DOJ Criminal Division, Fraud Section, working alongside the Office of the U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia, has subpoenaed information from ByteDance regarding efforts by its employees to access U.S. journalists’ location information or other private user data using the TikTok app. According to two sources, the FBI has been conducting interviews related to the surveillance. ByteDance’s use of the app to surveil U.S. citizens was first reported by Forbes in October, and confirmed by an internal company investigation in December.
39. TikTok’s plan to stave off government intervention: Flood D.C. with influencers
Hailey Fuchs, Politico, March 17, 2023
40. China using LinkedIn, Indeed to recruit spies, target experts in US
Kellie Meyer and Zoe Lake, News Nation, March 8, 2023
41. German minister to visit Taiwan next week in test of China ties
Nikkei Asia, March 17, 2023
Germany's education minister will visit Taiwan next week, a spokesperson said on Friday, as Berlin reviews its previously close ties with China.
A visit to Taiwan in January by a delegation of high-ranking lawmakers from the liberal Free Democrats (FDP), the smallest party in Chancellor Olaf Scholz's three-way coalition, led to protests from Beijing.
Bettina Stark-Watzinger, also of the FDP, will begin her visit early next week, the spokesperson said.
A source with direct knowledge of the visit said Stark-Watzinger would not see President Tsai Ing-wen upon the instructions of the German government to avoid irritating China too much.
The source stressed this was a working visit to discuss areas under Stark-Watzinger's portfolio and not directly about sending a message of support from Germany to Taiwan.
COMMENT – It’s a bit mind-boggling to me that folks in the German Government think they can walk this fine line between not angering Beijing and implementing their own policies and values. It would likely be better for Berlin if they simply made it clear to Beijing, that the Party has no right to veto German decision-making on its relations with other countries.
If you are a Minister and you are going to Taipei, it only makes sense to meet with President Tsai, instead of validating the Chinese Communist Party’s perverse concept that there is something wrong with doing so.
Oh by the way, Xi Jinping seems to have no problem meeting with a leader who has an ICC arrest warrant against him for war crimes.
HUMAN RIGHTS AND RELIGIOUS PERSECUTION
42. Hong Kong court jails three members of Tiananmen vigil group
Jessie Pang and James Pomfret, Reuters March 10, 2023
Three former members of a Hong Kong group that organised annual vigils to mark China's 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown, were jailed on Saturday for four and a half months for not complying with a national security police request for information.
Chow Hang-tung, 38, a prominent Hong Kong pro-democracy activist and former vice-chairperson of the Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements in China, was among those convicted by a magistrate's court.
43. „Nicht mehr investierbar“: Deka wirft VW-Aktie aus nachhaltigen Finanzprodukten ["No longer investable": Deka throws VW shares out of sustainable financial products] – ORIGINAL IN GERMAN
Martin Seiwert, WirtschaftsWoche, March 9, 2023
DekaBank, the major German investment bank, pulls funds from Volkswagen due to reports of forced labor at their operations in the PRC.
44. US releases a third of electronics detained under China forced labor law, data shows
Nichola Groom, Reuters, March 14, 2023
45. China’s Securitization of Genetic Research
Patrick Beyrer, The Diplomat, March 13, 2023
INDUSTRIAL POLICIES AND ECONOMIC ESPIONAGE
46. Chinese firm got Covid contract despite trying to hack NHS data, minister says
Daniel Boffey, The Guardian, March 8, 2023
BGI Group, which is said to have made multiple attempts to hack into Genomics England, was given £11m testing contract in 2021.
China’s leading genomics research company was given a Covid testing contract in the UK despite ministers knowing it had repeatedly sought to hack into the NHS’s genetic datacentre, a government minister has said.
The BGI Group was making multiple attempts every week to “hack” into Genomics England in 2014, George Freeman, a Cabinet Office minister, revealed to MPs, and is said to remain a “danger”.
Despite the “aggressive” approach of the Chinese company towards the intellectual property of others, its subsidiary, BGI Genomics, was handed an £11m Covid testing contract in 2021.
The Chinese company has also worked alongside and shared data with UK universities and the Wellcome Trust charitable foundation.
The revelation came during a Commons debate in Westminster Hall, where Freeman, who was previously a minister for life sciences, was seeking to reassure concerned MPs that the government was aware of the risks posed by BGI.
He told MPs: “BGI is clearly one of those danger points in the ecosystem. When I was wheeled out in 2014 to give a speech on the occasion of the visit of President Xi to the Guildhall as President Xi and then PM Cameron were wheeled in, I was speaking to about a thousand Chinese delegates about Genomics England.
“I was preparing to pay tribute to the work of BGI when my officials pointed out that each week at that point Genomics England was receiving several hack attacks from BGI, and that was a wake-up call for all of us. We are very well aware that we have to manage these risks properly.”
47. Netherlands puts servicing of chipmaking tools in China under review
Andy Bounds, Financial Times, March 9, 2023
48. Netherlands to tighten export controls of chip equipment: minister
Shoichiro Taguchi and Maya Shimizu, Nikkei Asia, March 17, 2023
The Netherlands aims to respond to U.S. semiconductor restrictions on China by expanding the list of chip manufacturing equipment subject to export controls to prevent military use, the Dutch trade minister said.
Liesje Schreinemacher told Nikkei Asia here on Friday that The Hague has decided to include some of the latest models of deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography tools to its export control list by summer after "doing assessments concerning our national security."
49. EU seeks to diversify critical raw material supply away from China
Catherine de Beaurepaire, Nikkei Asia, March 17, 2023
50. Fast-Fashion Giant Shein Faces South Africa Probe Over Import Practices
Alexandra Wexler, Wall Street Journal, March 13, 2023
Textile workers and industry groups allege that Shein dodges import tariffs by sending goods in small packages.
South Africa’s government said Monday that it is investigating fast-fashion company Shein following complaints from the local textile union and industry association that it may be exploiting tax loopholes to gain an unfair advantage in Africa’s most developed economy.
A spokesman for the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition declined to provide details on the investigation, but he said that it was initiated in response to concerns raised by labor and industry groups. The issues raised by the South African groups resemble complaints by manufacturers and unions in the U.S. that claim that Shein and other Chinese retailers are taking advantage of an exception in U.S. customs law that allows them to import goods without paying tariffs.
51. China's 228m retirees set to drain economy and social safety net
Shunsuke Tabeta, Iori Kawate, and Noriyuki Doi, Nikkei Asia, March 18, 2023
52. India to discourage foreign trade settlement in Chinese yuan - sources
Shivangi Acharya, Aftab Ahmed and Neha Arora, Reuters, March 13, 2023
India has asked banks and traders to avoid using Chinese yuan to pay for Russian imports, three government officials involved in policy making and two banking sources said, because of long-running political differences with its neighbour.
India, which has emerged as a top buyer of Russian oil as well as discounted coal, would prefer the use of United Arab Emirates dirhams to settle trade, three government officials said.
One of the government officials directly involved in the matter said New Delhi is "not comfortable" with foreign trade settled in yuan but said settlement in "dirham is okay."
The second official said that India cannot allow settlement in yuan till the relations between the two countries improve.
Thousands of Indian and Chinese troops are locked in a standoff along their disputed Himalayan border since 2021, casting a shadow over the whole relationship.
53. Silicon Valley Bank’s Troubles Threaten a Key Bridge Between Chinese Startups and U.S. Investors
Juro Osawa and Shai Oster, The Information, March 10, 2023
The panic over the status of Silicon Valley Bank intensified on Friday, as the stock of SVB’s parent fell another 66% in pre-trading hours. Meanwhile, anxieties spread to China overnight, prompting local venture capitalists and entrepreneurs to follow their U.S. counterparts and look for alternative banks for their U.S. dollar holdings.
The fate of SVB is a huge concern in China, the world’s second-largest venture capital market after Silicon Valley, because SVB was among the first financial institutions to start catering to Chinese startups when traditional banks shunned them. The bank established its first Chinese arm nearly two decades ago.
54. Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse hastens unravelling of long-standing ties between US venture capital and China’s technology start-ups
Zhou Xin, South China Morning Post, March 14, 2023
55. Biden Administration Set to Further Tighten Chipmaking Exports to China
Ian King, Bloomberg, March 10, 2023
The Biden administration is working to further tighten restrictions on the export of semiconductor manufacturing gear to China, escalating rules aimed at preventing the country from developing an advanced chip industry.
The government has briefed US companies about the plan, telling them that it expects to announce the new restrictions as early as next month, according to people familiar with the situation. The rules may as much as double the number of machines that require special licenses for export, creating fresh hurdles for makers of the equipment such as Applied Materials Inc., said the people, who asked not to be identified because the deliberations are private.
56. Siemens scours south-east Asia for deals to diversify from China
Mercedes Ruehl and Patricia Nilsson, Financial Times, March 13, 2023
57. China tightens grip on emerging tech, spooking foreign investors
Noriyuki Doi, Nikkei Asia, March 14, 2023
58. Apple Supplier Foxconn Plans to Rely Less on China for Revenue
Joyu Wang and Yoko Kubota, Wall Street Journal, March 15, 2023
59. Chinese auto chips only: Inside Xi's self-sufficiency campaign
Shunsuke Tabeta, Nikkei Asia, March 15, 2023
60. Joint patents with China pose pitfalls in U.S.-led decoupling
Tamaki Kyozuka, Nikkei Asia, March 15, 2023
61. SVB’s Chinese Customers Face Logjams in Moving Money
Juro Osawa and Shai Oster, The Information, March 14, 2023
62. US Races to Close Loophole in Ban on China Tech Firm Inspur
Jenny Leonard and Ian King, Bloomberg, March 9, 2023
The US is working to close a loophole in restrictions imposed on Inspur Group that leaves American companies such as Intel Corp. free to keep supplying the Chinese server maker’s affiliates.
The US Department of Commerce this month added Inspur and dozens of its peers to an export blacklist that already included major names from Huawei Technologies Co. to AI giant SenseTime Group Inc. and camera maker Hikvision. But it didn’t specify all of Inspur’s affiliates, of which there are dozens.
63. China’s ‘Big Fund’ Gets New Boss to Fight US Chip Export Curbs
Bloomberg News, March 12, 2023
64. Tech war: US directors resign from board of Shanghai-listed chip equipment firm amid Washington restrictions on citizens
Lilian Zhang, South China Morning Post, March 15, 2023
65. Brussels seeks new controls to limit China acquiring high-tech
Andy Bounds, Financial Times, March 14, 2023
CYBER AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
66. China’s Hidden Tech Revolution
Dan Wang, Foreign Policy, February 28, 2023
In 2007, the year Apple first started making iPhones in China, the country was better known for cheap labor than for technological sophistication. At the time, Chinese firms were unable to produce almost any of the iPhone’s internal components, which were imported from Germany, Japan, and the United States. China’s overall contribution to the devices was limited to the labor of assembling these components at Foxconn’s factories in Shenzhen—what amounted to less than four percent of the value-added costs.
By the time the iPhone X was released, in 2018, the situation had dramatically changed. Not only were Chinese workers continuing to assemble most iPhones, but Chinese firms were producing many of the sophisticated components inside them, including acoustic parts, charging modules, and battery packs. Having mastered complex technologies, these firms could produce better products than their Asian and European competitors. With the latest generation of iPhones, this pattern has only accelerated. Today, Chinese tech firms account for more than 25 percent of the device’s value-added costs.
Although the iPhone is a special case—as one of the most intricate pieces of hardware in existence, it relies on an exceptional range of technologies—its expanding footprint in China captures a broader trend. In a majority of manufactured goods, Chinese firms have moved beyond assembling foreign-made components to producing their own cutting-edge technologies. Along with its dominance of renewable power equipment, China is now at the forefront of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing. These successes challenge the notion that scientific leadership inevitably translates into industrial leadership. Despite relatively modest contributions to pathbreaking research and scientific innovation, China has leveraged its process knowledge—the capacity to scale up whole new industries—to outcompete the United States in a widening array of strategic technologies.
67. Senator's TikTok whistleblower alleges data abuses
Ashley Gold, Axios, March 8, 2023
TikTok's access controls on U.S. user data are much weaker than the company says, a former ByteDance employee told the office of Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), per a letter from Hawley to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen shared exclusively with Axios.
Driving the news: The whistleblower's allegations, which have not been independently seen or verified by Axios, suggest that TikTok overstates its separation from its China-based owner ByteDance, relies on proprietary Chinese software that could have backdoors, and uses tools that allow employees to easily toggle between U.S. and Chinese user data.
68. A former TikTok employee tells Congress the app is lying about Chinese spying
Drew Harwell, The Washington Post, March 10, 2023
His claims of data-security flaws, which the company disputes, underscore how seriously Congress has begun taking the wildly popular short-video app with more than 100 million users nationwide.
A former risk manager at TikTok has met with congressional investigators to share his concerns that the company’s plan for protecting United States user data is deeply flawed, pointing to evidence that could inflame lawmakers’ suspicion of the app at a moment when many are considering a nationwide ban.
In an exclusive interview with The Washington Post, the former employee, who worked for six months in the company’s Trust and Safety division ending in early 2022, said the issues could leave data from TikTok’s more than 100 million U.S. users exposed to China-based employees of its parent company ByteDance, even as the company races to implement new safety rules walling off domestic user information.
His allegations threaten to undermine this $1.5 billion restructuring plan, known as Project Texas, which TikTok has promoted widely in Washington as a way to neutralize the risk of data theft or misuse by the Chinese government.
69. TikTok's U.S. woes grow as efforts to lobby Washington falter
Cissy Zhou, Nikkei Asia, March 10, 2023
70. TikTok Considers Splitting From ByteDance If Deal With US Fails
Alex Barinka and Olivia Carville, Bloomberg, March 14, 2023
71. UAE Spy Chief’s Firm Buys Into ByteDance at $220 Billion Value
Manuel Baigorri, Ben Bartenstein and Dong Cao, Bloomberg, March 14, 2023
Abu Dhabi’s G42 bought ByteDance stake from existing investors. Value gyrates as uncertainty persists about its US operation.
ByteDance Ltd. was valued at around $220 billion in a recent private-market investment by Abu Dhabi AI firm G42, a significant discount to the $300 billion that TikTok’s owner set during a recent share buyback program.
G42, controlled by United Arab Emirates royal Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, acquired a $100 million-plus stake from existing investors in recent months through its 42XFund, people with knowledge of the deal said. Another fund bought into ByteDance at a $225 billion shortly after, one of the people said, asking not to be identified describing non-public information.
COMMENT – G42’s involvement in ByteDance does not improve their reputation.
72. UK Probing TikTok’s Ownership, Security Minister Tugendhat Says
Alex Wickham, Bloomberg, March 14, 2023
73. Baidu's shares plunge after demo of its ChatGPT-style bot
Cissy Zhou, Nikkei Asia, March 16, 2023
Prerecorded presentation leaves investors unimpressed.
Chinese search giant Baidu's shares plunged after the company debuted its answer to Microsoft-backed ChatGPT, in a sign investors were less than impressed by the chatbot challenger.
The company's Hong Kong-listed shares plunged more than 10% at one point during the demonstration on Thursday afternoon before ending the day down 6.36%, at 125.1 Hong Kong dollars.
74. Chinese AI groups use cloud services to evade US chip export controls
Eleanor Olcott, Qianer Liu, and Demetri Sevastopulo, Financial Times, March 8, 2023
75. How the Dutch turned on Chinese tech
Pieter Haeck, Politico, March 10, 2023
76. China exerts control over internet cable projects in South China Sea
Anna Gross, Alexandra Heal, Demetri Sevastopulo, Kathrin Hille, and Mercedes Ruehl, Financial Times, March 13, 2023
77. China decoupling spreads to software development
Masaharu Ban, Nikkei Asia, March 16, 2023
The technological decoupling between the U.S. and China is spreading into software, as concerns over cyberattacks fuel increasing reluctance among developers to incorporate software components created in China.
Apps and systems are commonly built using open-source software components from across the world, creating what can be called a global software supply chain. But this approach means weaknesses in one component could compromise an entire app. Attacks targeting such weaknesses have surged in recent years, an increase suspected by some to be driven by Chinese and Russian hackers.
MILITARY AND SECURITY THREATS
78. China, Russia, Iran Hold Joint Military Drills in Gulf of Oman
Dion Nissenbaum and Chun Han Won, Wall Street Journal, March 15, 2023
China, Russia and Iran launched joint military exercises on Wednesday in the Gulf of Oman in the latest sign of Beijing’s efforts to expand its influence in the Middle East.
China’s Defense Ministry said the five-day exercise would deepen cooperation between the three nations, posing a growing challenge to U.S. interests in the region.
The drills come days after China brokered a surprise diplomatic deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia that paved the way for renewed political ties between the Gulf rivals after a seven-year freeze.
Beijing’s more muscular role in the Middle East creates new complications for the U.S., which has been trying to reduce its focus on the region so it can turn its attention toward China and Russia.
79. ‘Hunting rifles’ — really? China ships assault weapons and body armor to Russia
Erin Banco and Sarah Anne Aarup, Politico, March 16, 2023
Customs data obtained by POLITICO reveals direct shipments of Chinese assault rifles, as well as drone shipments and body armor routed via Turkey and the UAE.
China North Industries Group Corporation Limited, one of the country’s largest state-owned defense contractors, sent the rifles in June 2022 to a Russian company called Tekhkrim that also does business with the Russian state and military. The CQ-A rifles, modeled off of the M16 but tagged as “civilian hunting rifles” in the data, have been reported to be in use by paramilitary police in China and by armed forces from the Philippines to South Sudan and Paraguay.
Russian entities also received 12 shipments of drone parts by Chinese companies and over 12 tons of Chinese body armor, routed via Turkey, in late 2022, according to the data.
80. Scholz warns China not to use force to alter Taiwan status quo
Shogo Akagawa, Nikkei Asia, March 16, 2023
German leader to deepen relationships with Asian partners in policy shift.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said he will reduce his country's economic reliance on China, pledging that Germany would avoid "one-sided dependencies on individual countries, as well as open up new sales markets."
On March 18, the Japanese and German governments will hold their first Inter-Governmental Consultations, a new framework for regular government discussions that will include the leaders of the two countries. Scholz spoke with Nikkei Asia at the Chancellery in Berlin ahead of his trip.
81. China names U.S.-sanctioned general Li Shangfu as defence minister
Yew Lun Tian and Ethan Wang, Reuters, March 11, 2023
82. Russia Relies on Tech Imports from China Amid the Ukraine War
Nathaniel Taplin, Wall Street Journal, March 10, 2023
83. Eyeing China, Pentagon asks Congress to boost funds for Pacific forces
Lara Seligman and Lee Hudson, Politico, March 9, 2023
84. Studying Ukraine war, China's military minds fret over US missiles, Starlink
Eduardo Baptista and Greg Torode, Reuters, March 7, 2023
85. High Cost of Taiwan Invasion Will Dissuade China, Pentagon Official Says
John Grady, U.S. Naval Institute, March 2, 2023
China will not attempt to invade Taiwan before the end of the decade because it understands the high cost, the senior Pentagon official in charge of Indo-Pacific security said Thursday.
“Deterrence is real; deterrence is strong” today and tomorrow, said Ely Ratner, the assistant secretary for the Indo-Pacific. The United States can likely deter Beijing from attacking the self-governing island 100 miles off the Chinese coast, he said.
Speaking at a Hudson Institute event Thursday, Ratner cited the administration’s position that the Peoples Republic of China “is the only country with the capability and intent to overthrow the international order.”
But in the past year, Washington, its allies and partners have built-up capabilities to “ensure that kind of coercion and bullying” – from threats of attack to interfering with transiting aircraft and shipping – doesn’t succeed, he said.
Ratner termed what’s happening regionally “as a breakthrough year for alliances and partnerships” in countering China’s military and territorial ambitions. He pointed to Japan’s decision to ramp up defense spending and work on counter-strike weapons, the agreement between the U.S. and the Philippines on establishing four new sites in the island republic for U.S. forces and the progress on the technology sharing agreement between Australia, the United Kingdom and the U.S.
He also cited the “new technology dialogue” with India that will lead to more co-development and co-production activities “that make our defense industrial bases more compatible.”
86. British Prime Minister Says China Presents ‘Epoch-Defining’ Challenge
Paul Beckett and Max Colchester, The Wall Street Journal, March 12, 2023
87. UK government to boost China expertise
Sarah Young, Reuters, March 13, 2023
88. Biden seeks tension-easing call with China’s Xi Jinping
Ellen Nakashima and Olivier Knox, The Washington Post, March 13, 2023
89. Joint Leaders Statement on AUKUS
The White House, March 13, 2023
90. Eyeing China, Biden and allies unveil nuclear-powered submarine plan for Australia
Steve Holland, Elizabeth Piper, and David Brunnstrom, Reuters, March 13, 2023
91. Australia to buy three nuclear-powered submarines with option to buy two more -White House
Trevor Hunnicutt, Reuters, March 13, 2023
Australia will buy three Virginia class nuclear-powered submarines with the option to buy two more, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Monday.
ONE BELT, ONE ROAD STRATEGY
92. Kamala Harris, Antony Blinken Head to Africa in a Bid to Counter China
William Mauldin and Nicholas Bariyo, Wall Street Journal, March 14, 2023
U.S. officials want to show that Washington isn’t only a donor for Africa’s humanitarian needs but also a resource in countering terrorism and insurgency and a potential source of investment and other economic support. As the U.S. confronts Russia and China, Biden administration officials are visiting regions where the great powers are competing—Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe and Africa.
OPINION PIECES
93. America and China are preparing for a war over Taiwan
The Economist, March 9, 2023
94. Japan and India must draw closer to check Chinese expansionism
Brahma Chellaney, Nikkei Asia, March 17, 2023
95. Coming to grips with China's 'wartime' footing on economy
Yuri Momoi, Nikkei Asia, March 14, 2023
Lines between trade curbs and military moves blur in shifting fight for control.
As many had expected, Xi Jinping kicked off a historic third term as China's president by elevating his most loyal allies to key government posts at China's National People's Congress, which ended Monday.
One of the few surprises was Yi Gang's reappointment as governor of the People's Bank of China. Yi, a reformist who once taught economics in the U.S., had been expected to step down.
96. China is pushing America’s Asian allies together
Josh Rogin, Washington Post, March 9, 2023
97. Behind China’s Mideastern Diplomacy
Karen Elliott House, Wall Street Journal, March 12, 2023
To keep oil flowing and diminish the U.S., Beijing brokers a deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Surprise. As the world awaited announcement of a U.S.-brokered normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, China brokered an even more surprising normalization between Saudi Arabia and Iran. If Iran lives up to the agreement and respects “the sovereignty of states and the non-interference in internal affairs of states,” the deal could have a stabilizing impact across the region. But Saudis remain deeply skeptical that Iran has abandoned its desire for domination.
What is most striking is the cooperation between China and Saudi Arabia, both of which fear a Mideast war could damage their grand ambitions. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is determined to transform Saudi Arabia into a major world power by 2030, and President Xi Jinping seeks to displace the U.S. as the global superpower but can’t do it without Middle Eastern oil. As Iran moves closer to nuclear weapons, both Beijing and Riyadh fear an Israeli strike would lead to a wider conflict; and an Iranian bomb would threaten the Saudis too.
Concluding that the U.S. likely wouldn’t carry out its pledge to prevent a nuclear Iran, the Saudi regime decided to trade confrontation for alignment. “We have to accept reality and figure a way to live with a nuclear Iran,” one official says. “So, we will go from hostile relations to better relations.”
Yet the kingdom’s real purpose is to raise pressure on the Biden administration to abandon Iran and provide the security guarantees Riyadh demands to recognize Israel. Normalization remains a Saudi goal but not as part of the Abraham Accords. Instead, Saudi-Israel normalization would be a new initiative by Riyadh to pave the way for major Islamic nations like Indonesia and Malaysia to establish relations with the Jewish state. In exchange, the crown prince wants the U.S. to declare Saudi Arabia a strategic ally, provide Riyadh reliable access to American arms, and support his plans to enrich uranium and develop its own fuel production for 16 nuclear reactors the kingdom intends to build over the next two decades. All these measures will encounter resistance in Congress.
By cooperating with China to mend Saudi-Iranian relations, the crown prince has heightened the pressure on the U.S. to guarantee what is in its own self-interest: stability in the region built around Israel and Saudi Arabia. If President Biden wants a diplomatic success, he’ll have to accept some of the Saudi requests.
The crown prince has played a complicated hand exceedingly well. He has exploited China-U.S. competition for global influence and used his relations with both big powers to seek advantage in a messy Middle East. This deal demonstrates again his penchant for bold risk taking: Normalizing with Iran is fraught with peril. Iran may renege. Mr. Biden may prove unable to persuade Congress, further estranging Riyadh from U.S. lawmakers. While the crown prince is motivated primarily by geopolitics, one shouldn’t underestimate the role that personal relations play. He clearly gets along well with Mr. Xi but has no use for Mr. Biden, who as a candidate pledged to make Saudi Arabia a “pariah.”
98. Analysis: Heavyweight Xi Jinping gives himself a lightweight cabinet
Katsuji Nakazawa, Nikkei Asia, March 16, 2023
Economic ministers are marginalized as the CCP takes over policymaking
99. AUDIO – Drum Tower: Open for business?
David Reenie, Alice Su, Simon Cox, and Jing Qian, The Economist Podcast Drum Tower, March 14, 2023