Matt Turpin's China Articles - May 14, 2023
Friends,
Lots of material this week and I included some commentary of my own beneath a number of the articles.
There are several trends worth watching:
Domestically, the Chinese Communist Party appears increasingly obsessed with mobilizing the Chinese people for a long struggle and preparing them for a potential war with the United States (see #59). This has been building for years and is now accelerating.
In its external rhetoric, the Party seeks to isolate the United States (and Taiwan) while using its discourse power to blame Washington for starting the new cold war that Beijing has spent over a decade preparing for after it concluded that the United States wouldn’t surrender its core interests.
Given that the Party has already concluded that this new cold war has begun, Beijing seeks to place Washington on the horns of a dilemma: backdown and show contrition for harming China’s interests OR get blamed for starting the new cold war. From Beijing’s perspective, the former would result in the collapse of the nascent coalition the U.S. is building and the later would make it more difficult for the U.S. to build that coalition.
The Biden Administration, while continuing to take some substantive actions against the PRC, reinforces the Party’s external rhetoric by acting like an ‘ardent suitor,’ desperate for a high-level meeting with their Chinese counterparts to “explain themselves” and find an off-ramp for a set of strategic decisions that Xi and his cadres have committed themselves to.
Domestically, the Biden Administration is anxious to avoid mobilizing the American people for the new cold war and makes promises that the U.S. can narrowly tailor its national security concerns (“small yard, high fence”), while protecting the Sino-American trade and investment relationships and return to the good old days of engagement (Secretary Yellen here and a week later, Jake Sullivan here).
It appears that the Biden Administration has fallen back into the comfortable groove of Obama’s “Engage, Bind, and Balance” strategy. A strategy that its proponents portrayed as sophisticated, one that only the smartest could truly understand, but was really just a refusal to prioritize and make decisions.
“Engage, Bind, and Balance” included something for everyone: those who wanted to help the Chinese economy grow and develop greater Sino-American economic interdependencies could pursue the “engage” portion of the strategy. Those who believed they could convince PRC officials to adopt international norms and behaviors though countless rounds of high-level negotiations could pursue the “bind” portion of the strategy. And those who saw an increasing danger from Beijing’s belligerence and growing techno-military capability (greatly aided by the “engage” portion of the strategy, I might add) could pursue the “balance” portion.
For policymakers, this kaleidoscope strategy offers an attractive advantage: the avoidance of messy and uncomfortable decisions. It can be all things, to all people.
Least you think I’m just bashing the Team Biden, this kaleidoscope strategy closely mirrors the one unfolding in Europe over the past several years:
“China is, simultaneously, in different policy areas, a cooperation partner with whom the EU has closely aligned objectives, a negotiating partner with whom the EU needs to find a balance of interests, an economic competitor in the pursuit of technological leadership, and a systemic rival promoting alternative models of governance. This requires a flexible and pragmatic whole-of-EU approach enabling a principled defence of interests and values.”
Unfortunately, avoiding uncomfortable decisions has consequences. When everyone perceives the strategy differently and pursues contradictory objectives, we are unlikely to achieve any of our goals.
I have a sinking feeling that Beijing has the initiative, and they know it.
Thanks for reading!
Matt
MUST READ
1. Why China’s Censors Are Deleting Videos About Poverty
Li Yuan, New York Times, May 4, 2023
After declaring “victory” over poverty in the PRC, the Chinese Communist Party is desperate to censor stories, videos and pictures displaying the truth that poverty and inequality remain stubborn problems that the Party’s policies are only making worse.
In Xi’s China, the lives of the most vulnerable cannot be allowed to interfere with the Party’s success.
COMMENT – For those who advocate that climate change is an area that we can cooperate with Beijing on, this experience with erasing stories about continued poverty in the PRC should serve as a cautionary lesson.
Just as we can see from the Party’s censorship of poverty (because it gives lie to a success story the Party wants to tell itself and the world), the Party is likely to censor anything that gives lie to climate “successes.” Unfortunately, the Party simply cannot be a reliable and responsible partner in handling the world’s biggest challenges. The lack of independent media, transparency, and rule of law means that the Party simply cannot be held accountable.
My advice: drop our collective illusions that the Chinese Communist Party can be a reliable partner on any issue of significance and start imposing costs on the Chinese economy.
2. Taiwan as an Observer in the World Health Assembly
Anthony J. Blinken, U.S. Department of State, May 9, 2023
Secretary of State Blinken urged the world to readmit Taiwan as an observer at the upcoming World Health Assembly (WHA), the decision-making body of the World Health Organization (WHO).
COMMENT – The next WHA meeting starts on May 21 in Geneva.
Let’s hope the disorganized ‘China House’ at State can get a win on this one (see the Reuters article #18 below… I’m not optimistic).
Beijing will fight hard and dirty; I sincerely hope that State’s diplomats are prepared to make public the bribes and threats Beijing will offer other countries representatives and the officials at WHO to stop this from happening. The DOJ’s expert attorneys in FCPA (Foreign Corrupt Practices Act) prosecutions need to be ready… perhaps they can gently remind folks of cases like this.
Losing this public battle to include Taiwan in the WHA would be incredibly embarrassing and give Beijing enormous confidence that it can successfully isolate Taiwan and the United States in international institutions that are supposed to be built on the foundation of transparency, openness, rule of law, and global public benefits.
Of course, this isn’t Washington’s responsibility alone… Brussels, Delhi, Paris, Berlin, Pretoria, London, Bern, Tokyo, Brasilia, Canberra, Jerusalem, Singapore, Ottawa, and Seoul (along with many, many others) could also make similar demands of this UN body and choose to stand on the side of principle rather than caving to Beijing’s bribes, intimidation, and threats.
Often the best lessons come from elementary school: be an ‘upstander,’ not a bystander!
3. Mexico claims proof of Chinese fentanyl smuggling
BBC, May 6, 2023
Mexico’s president claims to have proof of illegal shipments of fentanyl into Mexico from the PRC. President López Obrador had already appealed to the Chinese government to receive help combating drugs’ presence in his country while Beijing claims that they have nothing to do with the issue, saying that fentanyl abuse is a problem that made its way into Mexico from the US.
COMMENT – For anyone that wants proof of the Chinese Communist Party’s malign intent and desire to undermine the fabric of American society, look no further than the Party’s deliberate role in fentanyl smuggling across the U.S. southern border.
Unfortunately, last year the Administration missed an opportunity to highlight the Party’s criminal conduct in enabling this catastrophe with the Congressional Commission on Combatting Synthetic Opioid Trafficking.
Instead of hammering the Party’s intentional foot-dragging, they decided to treat the PRC’s role with kid gloves in the hope that they could convince Beijing to reduce its support through quiet negotiation… that was a mistake.
4. Canada declares Chinese diplomat Zhao Wei ‘persona non grata’ over foreign interference - The Globe and Mail
Bill Curry, Steven Chase, and Marieke Walsh, The Globe and Mail, May 8, 2023
After weeks of controversy, the Canadian Government expelled a Chinese diplomat involved in “transnational repression” by targeting the family of a Canadian MP who was critical on the PRC. It seems that another example of “transnational repression” becomes public every week.
The Chinese Communist Party immediately expelled the Canadian consul in Shanghai and blamed Canada for endangering Canadian-Chinese relations.
5. Feds nab alleged Chinese spy working in Boston
Flint McColgan, Boston Herald, May 9, 2023
Litang Liang has been federally indicted on conspiracy to act as an agent of a foreign government and acting as an agent of a foreign government without notice to the attorney general. He was arrested Tuesday, the same day his indictment was unsealed.
The indictment alleges that Liang worked with a handler and additional PRC Officials out of the consulate in New York City to target a number of Boston-area people the Chinese Communist Party find problematic.
COMMENT – Similar to the situation unfolding in Canada, will the United States expel the “PRC Officials” Litang Liang has been working with from the New York City Consulate?
It sounds an awful lot like a “transnational repression” campaign being waged on American soil… yet another example of how the Chinese Communist Party violates the sovereignty of other countries, conducts illegal acts inside other countries and then expects everyone to ignore it and treat them as a “regular” country.
Given the proliferation of these crimes and Beijing’s absolute unwillingness to acknowledge its violations of sovereignty and acts of political interference, it is amazing that the Biden Administration seems obsessed with setting up a ‘high-level’… do they expect the Party to cease these things as the Administration pursues them?
6. China vows to retaliate against EU sanctions on its companies
Guy Chazan, Financial Times, May 9, 2023
PRC Foreign Minister, Qin Gang, has condemned EU plans to impose sanctions on PRC companies that support Russia's military activities, pledging to react "strictly and firmly.” Eight Chinese firms are accused of selling equipment that can be used in weapons and are listed in a new package of sanctions being considered by member states.
While Brussels has previously avoided targeting PRC, arguing that there was no evidence of it providing weapons to Moscow (despite mounting public evidence), the proposed sanctions would require unanimous approval from EU member states. This will likely test the unity of the EU, which is shaky and Beijing knows it, and could potentially be the first test case of Europe’s “toolkit” for countering economic coercion.
7. Ex-ByteDance Executive Accuses Company of ‘Lawlessness’
Thomas Fuller and Sapna Maheshwari, New York Times, May 12, 2023
A former executive at ByteDance, the Chinese company that owns TikTok, has accused the technology giant of a “culture of lawlessness,” including stealing content from rival platforms Snapchat and Instagram in its early years, and called the company a “useful propaganda tool for the Chinese Communist Party.”
The claims were part of a wrongful dismissal suit filed on Friday by Yintao Yu, who was the head of engineering for ByteDance’s U.S. operations from August 2017 to November 2018. The complaint, filed in San Francisco Superior Court, says Mr. Yu was fired because he raised concerns about a “worldwide scheme” to steal and profit from other companies’ intellectual property.
Among the most striking claims in Mr. Yu’s lawsuit is that ByteDance’s offices in Beijing had a special unit of Chinese Communist Party members sometimes referred to as the Committee, which monitored the company’s apps, “guided how the company advanced core Communist values” and possessed a “death switch” that could turn off the Chinese apps entirely.
“The Committee maintained supreme access to all the company data, even data stored in the United States,” the complaint said.
COMMENT – Unsurprising…
Authoritarianism
8. U.S. Think Tank Reports Prompted Beijing to Put a Lid on Chinese Data
Lingling Wei, Wall Street Journal, May 7, 2023
A recent campaign to restrict overseas access to China-based data sources was partly triggered by a drumbeat of U.S. think tank reports on sensitive Chinese practices that alarmed Beijing, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter.
Increasingly worried about perceived Western threats, Beijing in recent weeks expanded an anti-espionage law and stepped up pressure on foreign companies specializing in collecting information, such as auditors, management consultants and law firms. In addition, access to Chinese databases including Shanghai-based Wind Information has tightened for foreign think tanks, research firms and other nonfinancial entities.
The wider scope of the campaign is intended to ensure the party-state’s control over narratives about China. The part of it focused on restricting overseas access to databases began in earnest after some reports based on publicly available information set off alarms among senior Chinese officials, according to the people with knowledge of the matter.
9. China raids Capvision's Suzhou office in consultancy crackdown
Cissy Zhou, Nikkei Asia, May 9, 2023
Authorities in China have launched an investigation into the Shanghai-headquartered expert network platform Capvision Partners, state media revealed on Monday, the latest sign of Beijing's increasing scrutiny of global consultancy firms.
State security officers were reported by state broadcaster Jiangsu Television to have recently raided Capvision's Suzhou branch, questioning the firm's staff, examining office items and urging the company to "fulfill the responsibility of counterintelligence."
10. VIDEO – Beijing raids offices of consulting firm Capvision in widening crackdown over national security
South China Morning Post, May 10, 2023
COMMENT – To ensure no one missed the message, PRC state media outlets showed the raid on Capvision in prime time to viewers across the country. The message was clear: if you help foreigners understand China in ways that the Party doesn’t approve of, then you are committing espionage.
11. Forrester Research to axe China jobs after Beijing’s consultant crackdown
Financial Times, May 12, 2023
Forrester Research, a US tech-focused research group, has told staff it plans to cut the majority of its China analysts after Beijing intensified scrutiny of western consultancies in the country.
The Boston-based firm plans to fire several dozen employees in China, according to three people with knowledge of the matter, as company executives react to an intensifying crackdown on western research and due diligence companies.
Asked about the plans, Forrester said it was closing the China office as part of a previously announced global restructuring that was driven by economic issues and changes to its products.
Two people with direct knowledge of the matter said Forrester’s US headquarters decided to cut the jobs in China in response to the recent tightening of restrictions on western consultancies scrutinising Chinese investments and business partners for foreign clients.
COMMENT – I’m starting to feel like a broken record… if a company or investor is prohibited by law to conduct due diligence or collect routine business data, how could they possibly justify to their shareholders and clients the risks they are taking to continue to do business and make investments in that jurisdiction.
There are mounting ‘material risks’ to doing business in the PRC, anyone with a fiduciary duty must take those risks into account.
Some are getting the message… see the next article.
12. A $158 Billion Canada Pension Manager Hits Pause on China Deals
Laura Dhillon Kane, Bloomberg, May 11, 2023
British Columbia’s public pension manager has paused direct investments in China, the latest institutional investor to rethink its exposure to the world’s second-largest economy due to geopolitical risks.
A senior executive from British Columbia Investment Management Corp. revealed the policy during testimony this week to a Canadian parliamentary committee. Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan has made a similar move, suspending new investments in private assets in China, Bloomberg reported in January.
COMMENT – When will the rest of the institutional investor community make the same decision as these two public pension funds?
When will MSCI pull Chinese A-shares from their indexes given the enormous controversy (and potential bribes/coercion) around the decision to include those securities in 2018. See next article from February 2019…
13. WAY BACK MACHINE – How China Pressured MSCI to Add Its Market to Major Benchmark
Mike Bird, Wall Street Journal, February 3, 2019
The move raises questions about the independence of MSCI as the index giant wields increasing market power.
Last summer, the world’s largest index provider added stocks in China to one of its most prominent global benchmarks, leading billions of dollars to flow into Chinese shares and advancing China’s plans to draw more foreign investors to its markets.
The move by MSCI Inc. MSCI -0.16%decrease; red down pointing triangle came after it came under heavy pressure from the Chinese government, which tried to curtail the company’s business in the country, according to people familiar with the matter.
MSCI’s decision to include domestic Chinese stocks in its widely followed Emerging Markets Index was received unfavorably by some investors who were concerned about robustness and transparency of markets in the world’s second-largest economy.
Since the addition, Chinese stocks have stumbled, as has the global index. Yet business has boomed in China for MSCI and large global asset managers who supported its move. Regulators last year approved nine Chinese exchange-traded funds designed to track the performance of MSCI indexes, when just one existed previously.
COMMENT – This is what the Justice Department should have focused the ‘China Initiative’ on…
14. Chinese students in U.S. wary of going home under new spy law
Masahiro Okoshi, Nikkei Asia, May 6, 2023
15. A battle against spies in China is spooking locals and foreigners
The Economist, May 4, 2023
16. Chinese Foreign Minister Scolds U.S. Envoy Over Taiwan
Brian Spegele, Wall Street Journal, May 8, 2023
In Beijing meeting, Qin Gang held up respect for so-called red lines as price for better communications with Washington.
China’s foreign minister rebuked the American ambassador in Beijing for what he said was Washington’s support of Taiwan and indicated that his side wanted concessions from the U.S. in return for improved lines of communication sought by the White House.
In a readout of their meeting on Monday from China’s Foreign Ministry, Qin Gang described the U.S. as hypocritical for trying to bolster communication channels between the countries on one hand, while simultaneously brushing up against what China sees as its Taiwan red lines.
“We cannot focus on communication while China is constantly being suppressed and contained,” Mr. Qin told Ambassador Nicholas Burns. “You cannot say one thing and do another.”
17. US Seeks Meeting with China Defense Minister After Being Spurned
Peter Martin, Bloomberg, May 4, 2023
18. Why the US delayed China sanctions after shooting down a spy balloon
Michael Martina, Reuters, May 11, 2023
When an alleged Chinese spy balloon traversed the United States in February, some U.S. officials were confident the incursion would galvanize the U.S. bureaucracy to push forward a slate of actions to counter China.
Instead, the U.S. State Department held back human rights-related sanctions, export controls and other sensitive actions to try to limit damage to the U.S.-China relationship, according to four sources with direct knowledge of U.S. policy, as well as internal emails seen by Reuters.
The delays to items on the department's "competitive actions" calendar, a classified rolling list of steps the Biden administration has planned related to China, have alarmed some U.S. officials and revealed a divide between those in the U.S. government pushing for tougher action against China and others advocating a more restrained approach.
While the State Department signaled U.S. displeasure over the balloon by postponing Secretary of State Antony Blinken's scheduled visit to Beijing, an internal State Department message reviewed by Reuters shows senior U.S. officials delaying planned actions against China.
Rick Waters, deputy assistant secretary of State for China and Taiwan who leads the China House policy division, said in a Feb. 6 email to staff that has not been previously reported: "Guidance from S (Secretary of State) is to push non-balloon actions to the right so we can focus on symmetric and calibrated response. We can revisit other actions in a few weeks."
The sources said many measures have yet to be revived. The decision to postpone export licensing rules for telecom equipment maker Huawei and sanctions against Chinese officials for abuses of Uyghurs, has damaged morale at China House, they said.
President Joe Biden's administration has sought to prevent a further deterioration in ties with China's Communist government, which many analysts say have hit the lowest point since they began in 1979.
Former diplomats and members of Congress from both parties have argued that the U.S. must keep channels of communication open with Beijing to avoid misunderstandings and navigate crises.
But the sources said the current policy hews too closely to an earlier strategy of engagement that enabled China to extract concessions in exchange for high-level dialogues that often yielded few tangible results.
Speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity for fear of repercussions, they said Blinken had largely delegated China policy duties to Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, the United States' second ranked diplomat.
In response to questions from Reuters, a senior State Department official said that under the Biden administration, the State Department had "coordinated with the interagency on a record-setting number of sanctions, export controls, and other competitive actions" toward China.
"Without commenting on specific actions, this work is sensitive and complex, and obviously sequencing is essential to maximize impact and make sure our messaging is clear and lands precisely," the official said.
Sherman did not respond to a request for comment.
Testifying before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Feb. 9, she said the department was "modernizing" its work and would "keep pushing back against the PRC's (People's Republic of China) aggressive military, diplomatic, and economic practices."
'KEEPING CHANNELS OPEN'
In late March, Waters told a staff meeting that the State Department would "move on" from the balloon incident with China, following guidance from Sherman who was eager to reschedule the Blinken trip, two of the sources said.
One Chinese official confirmed to Reuters that a renewed Blinken visit would be more likely if the U.S. accommodated Beijing's wish to shelve the issue, adding that China had conveyed it did not want the FBI to release details of its investigation into the downed balloon.
The two sources said the FBI report had originally been anticipated for mid-April release.
The FBI declined to comment on any report. The State Department told Reuters it had never discussed the issue with the bureau and declined to comment on discussions with China over the matter.
Asked about the release of the FBI report at a May 2 Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing, Daniel Kritenbrink, the department's top diplomat for East Asia, said: "I absolutely support making sure that people are aware of what happened."
He added that the department was committed to managing competition between the U.S. and China.
"Part of that, in our mind, has to involve senior-level communication, keeping channels open," Kritenbrink said.
Craig Singleton, a China expert of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the State Department was "caught in a trap of its own making," forgoing actions aimed at maximizing U.S. leverage in its eagerness to resume high-level exchanges.
"This decision, while well-intentioned, strengthens China's hand," Singleton said.
DELAYS TO HUAWEI CONTROLS
China House - formally the Office of China Coordination - was launched in December as a reorganization of the department's China desk, intended to sharpen policies across regions where China's expanding influence challenges the U.S. and its allies.
The four sources Reuters spoke to for this story all voiced concern that the State Department risked failing in its efforts to rebuff what many in the West view as China's ambition to displace the U.S. as world leader.
China's embassy in Washington declined to comment.
The sources said the Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security had prepared rules to revoke Huawei-related export control licenses, even those covering less sensitive technology. The departments of defense and energy were ready to back the changes in late February, but Sherman did not support stricter rules as the State Department was seeking to revive Blinken's visit, they said.
The four agencies on the End-User Review Committee that decides such actions did not vote on the matter because of State Department opposition, they said.
"The licensing rule has been written. There is draft Federal Register language," one source said.
State Department officials declined to comment specifically on the licensing rules. One official said that Sherman did not call the Commerce Department to delay any Huawei actions.
Commerce told Reuters it does not comment on deliberations about specific companies, and that it works with other parts of the government to "continually assess our export controls."
The defense and energy departments did not respond to a request for comment.
The State Department also pushed off sanctions against Chinese officials, including some at the Central Committee's United Front Work Department bureau responsible for policies in Xinjiang, where the U.S. government says Beijing is committing genocide against Muslim Uyghurs.
China denies all abuses.
Those sanctions, prepared and delayed for the first time in October 2022 and delayed again in mid-January because it was deemed too close to Blinken's visit, have yet to be released, three of the sources said.
Resistance to such actions has contributed to staffing struggles at China House, with vacancy rates as high as 40%, the four sources said.
Senior officials acknowledged morale problems at China House, but denied they were linked to policy.
"We are in the midst of a re-org. It's hard," one of the senior department officials said.
The State Department has struggled with staffing and morale issues left over from a Trump administration-era hiring freeze.
But some staff recently have requested reassignment, said the sources, who argued that the delays signaled to working-level officials that China actions are not a priority.
"Even when we are on the one-yard line, we debate whether we should cross," another source said.
COMMENT – This is just embarrassing… complete amateur hour.
If you didn’t know anything about the circumstances of the last several months, you would assume that it was the United States that had flown a spy balloon over the PRC right before the Chinese Foreign Minister was scheduled to visit Washington.
In many ways, Beijing has successfully shifted the narrative to that storyline: America blatantly violated Chinese sovereignty and Beijing is not going to schedule a high-level meeting with Washington until the Biden Administration shows contrition for that violation.
19. China pours cold water on bilateral meeting with US defense secretary
Demetri Sevastopulo, Financial Times, May 11, 2023
China has told the US there is little chance of a meeting between the countries’ defence ministers at a security forum in Singapore due to a dispute over sanctions, the latest obstacle to top-level dialogue between the two powers.
COMMENT – It is absolutely mindboggling that the Biden Administration continues to fall for these games. The Chinese Communist Party is now just playing with them.
My advice to the Biden Administration: have some self-respect.
20. UK Confucius Institutes enable ‘transnational repression,’ study says
Radio Free Asia, April 27, 2023
21. Hong Kongers find new ways to defend democratic ideals
France24, May 9, 2023
22. Bill passes allowing Hong Kong to ban overseas lawyers from national security cases
Ng Kang-chung, South China Morning Post, May 10, 2023
Environmental Harms
23. Is China going to eat Pakistan’s fish?
Akbar Notezai, The China Project, April 27, 2023
There have been multiple reports of Chinese trawlers off the coast of Pakistan’s Balochistan province. The Chinese consul-general in Karachi says they have not engaged in illegal fishing, but locals fear for the future of their fish stocks.
COMMENT – The PRC just cannot help itself from taking advantage of other countries. Beijing is convinced that paying off elites within countries that it partners with will buy their silence on these offenses.
Foreign Interference and Coercion
24. EUs plans to slap sanctions on Chinese firms aiding Russia's war machine
Reuters, May 8, 2023
25. China Postpones Talks with German Finance Chief at Short Notice
Kamil Kowalcze and Arne Delfs, Bloomberg, May 8, 2023
COMMENT – The German Finance Minister Christian Lindner is also the leader of the German Free Democratic Party (FDP) which has called on Germany and the EU to adopt a more distanced relationship from the PRC. For example, Lindner and his Party often criticized Chancellor Merkel’s engagement with Beijing and has pressured his coalition partner, Chancellor Scholz and his Social Democratic Party (SPD), to take a harder line with Beijing.
Of note, German Education Minister Bettina Stark-Watzinger, another member of the FDP in the current German coalition government, visited Taiwan in March… the first sitting German cabinet member to visit Taiwan in decades.
I’m sure there’s absolutely no connection between the two things…
26. Scholz Says China Increasingly Rival Rather Than Partner for EU
Michael Nienaber, Bloomberg, May 9, 2023
27. Chinese foreign minister warns neighbours not to get too close to US
Shi Jiangtao, South China Morning Post, May 5, 2023
China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang has warned South and Central Asian nations to maintain their distance from the United States by maintaining “strategic autonomy” and lashed out at Washington’s meddling in regional affairs.
Qin’s comments during his second visit to India in the space of two months were seen by analysts as a tailored message to other members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and particularly his hosts.
COMMENT – If Beijing were to stop invading its neighbors (here), claiming their territory as their own (here and here), interfering with their internal affairs (here), and launching cyberattacks against them (here), then it is likely those neighbors wouldn’t seek out collective security arrangements with the United States and other countries like Japan and Australia.
Of course, a PRC Foreign Minister under Xi Jinping could never display that kind of introspection.
28. China’s support may not be ‘lethal aid,’ but it’s vital to Russia’s aggression in Ukraine
Markus Garlauskas, Joseph Webster, and Emma C. Verges, Atlantic Council, May 8, 2023
29. AUDIO – “Born to Fly” v “Top Gun”
Drum Tower Podcast, May 9, 2023
COMMENT – David Rennie makes a great point in this episode: the Chinese Communist Party is normalizing the idea of waging war against the United States… the war drums are beginning to beat, and it appears fairly clear that the Party has decided to mobilize its population ideologically.
This will be very difficult to turn off, as Xi and his cadres know. Our politicians, diplomats, business leaders and military officers should pay close attention.
Trying to find a “floor” under the relationship sounds like a reasonable policy for our leaders to pursue, but we should also face the potentiality that Xi and the Party want a showdown and believe that they are in a position of advantage.
30. Pakistan faces more 'difficult choices' after pivot-to-China leak
Adnan Aamir, Nikkei Asia, May 8, 2023
31. UK’s Liz Truss heads to Taiwan after string of hawkish China speeches
Matt Honeycombe-Foster, Politico, May 9, 2023
32. More Canadian universities now say they’ll steer clear of Chinese telecom Huawei
Joanna Chiu, Toronto Star, May 4, 2023
33. AUDIO – Canada-China tension high as diplomats expelled
Front Burner, CBC News, May 10, 2023
34. Canada declares Zhao Wei persona non grata
Mélanie Joly, Global Affairs Canada, May 8, 2023
35. AUDIO – Assessing Taiwan President Tsai Ing-Wen’s U.S. Transit: A Conversation with Randall Schriver
China Power, April 7, 2023
36. China-U.S. Fight for Influence Runs Through Police in Pacific
Mike Cherney and Austin Ramzy, Wall Street Journal, May 3, 2023
37. China’s local governments look to Middle Eastern funds for investment
Mercedes Ruehl, Financial Times, May 8, 2023
Human Rights and Religious Persecution
38. Coercive Labor in the Cotton Harvest in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region and Uzbekistan
Zenz Adrian, Harvard Dataverse, May 8, 2023
39. Canada Passes Law Aimed at Exposing Forced Labor in Supply Chains
Richard Vanderford, Wall Street Journal, May 3, 2023
Industrial Policies and Economic Espionage
40. How top Silicon Valley investor Sequoia bankrolls China’s tech
Danny Fortso, Sunday Times, April 17, 2023
41. Audits of Chinese Companies Are Highly Deficient, U.S. Regulator Says
Mark Maurer, Wall Street Journal, May 10, 2023
42. China’s war chest: how Beijing is using its currency to insulate against future sanctions
Amy Hawkins, The Guardian, May 7, 2023
43. Police Raid Consulting Firm as China Starts Anti-Spy Campaign
Bloomberg, May 8, 2023
44. For Top VCs, ByteDance’s Historic Windfall Remains A $220 Billion Mirage
Alex Konrad, Forbes, May 4, 2023
45. Chinese VCs Lived the Silicon Valley High Life. Now the Party’s Over
Tracy Wen Liu, Wired, May 3, 2023
46. Chinese Company Now Owns Tutoring Firm Contracted by Military and Schools in U.S.
Melissa Korn, Wall Street Journal, May 8, 2023
47. China Signals Spying Fears Amid Probe of Consulting Firms
James T. Areddy and Liyan Qi, Wall Street Journal, May 8, 2023
48. China Finally Has a Rival as the World’s Factory Floor
Philip Wen, Vibhuti Agarwal, and Greg Ip, Wall Street Journal, May 9, 2023
49. Chinese Exports Cool in Latest Warning Sign on Global Trade
Jason Douglas, Wall Street Journal, May 9, 2023
50. Fate of Silicon Valley Bank’s Chinese venture hangs in balance
Cheng Leng, Financial Times, May 7, 2023
51. ‘The full treatment’: China sends a message with raid on consultancy
Joe Leahy, Ryan McMorrow, and Edward White, Financial Times, May 9, 2023
Cyber & Information Technology
52. LinkedIn shuts down China app that trailed rivals amid global job cuts
Coco Feng, South China Morning Post, May 9, 2023
53. China Arrests ChatGPT User Who Faked Deadly Train Crash Story
Low De Wei, Bloomberg, May 9, 2023
54. The Dangers of the Global Spread of China’s Digital Authoritarianism
Paul Scharre, CNAS, May 4, 2023
55. BNP Paribas Will Link Digital Yuan to Bank Accounts for Promoting CBDC Use: Report
Jamie Crawley, CoinDesk, May 5, 2023
56. TikTok Tracked Users Who Watched Gay Content, Prompting Employee Complaints
Georgia Wells and Byron Tau, Wall Street Journal, May 5, 2023
For at least a year, some employees at TikTok were able to find what they described internally as a list of users who watch gay content on the popular app, a collection of information that sparked worker complaints, according to former TikTok employees.
TikTok doesn’t ask users to disclose their sexual orientation, but it cataloged videos users watched under topics such as LGBT, short for lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender, the former employees said. The collection of information, which could be viewed by some employees through a dashboard, included a set of affiliated users who watched those videos, and their ID numbers, they said.
COMMENT – It is amazing how effective ByteDance has been at mobilizing progressives in the United States to resist a ban on TikTok.
57. ‘Rip and Replace’: The Tech Cold War Is Upending Wireless Carriers
Cecilia Kang, New York Times, May 9, 2023
Military and Security Threats
58. China v America: how Xi Jinping plans to narrow the military gap
The Economist, May 8, 2023
59. China’s new “Top Gun” normalises war with America
The Economist, May 4, 2023
COMMENT – The Chinese Communist Party has started beating the ‘war drums’ against the United States. Popular mobilization has begun and the Party likely concludes that burning bridges to foreigners is a price worth paying.
60. VIDEO – Exclusive: Chinese-made Hikvision CCTV cameras, accused of posing risk to national security, found on GCHQ building
Paul McNamara, Channel 4, May 4, 2023
61. The NSA Is Warning AI Startups: ‘China Is Coming for You’
Patrick Tucker, Defense One, April 28, 2023
62. U.S. prepares to fast track $500 million of arms for Taiwan
Bloomberg, Japan Times, May 6, 2023
63. China's Secretive Quest for Heavier Artillery
Ma Xiu and Peter W. Singer, Defense One, April 27, 2023
64. VIDEO – Japan: Preparing for War
ARTE.tv Documentary, YouTube, May 5, 2023
One Belt, One Road Strategy
65. Italy set to quit New Silk Road project as ties with China fray
Nick Squires, The Telegraph, May 9, 2023
66. UAE signs nuclear energy deals with three Chinese companies
The National, May 7, 2023
Opinion Pieces
67. Canadian Membership in AUKUS: A Time for Action
Christopher Hernandez-Roy, Vincent Rigby, and Henry Ziemer, CSIS, May 9, 2023
68. Little Lithuania Stands Tall Against Russia and China
Tunku Varadarajan, Wall Street Journal, May 5, 2023
69. Iran’s New Friends: Russia and China
David S. Cloud, Wall Street Journal, May 5, 2023
70. TikTok spied on me. Why?
Cristina Criddle, Financial Times, May 4, 2023
71. Nazak Nikakhtar on the Legal Paths for Banning TikTok
Jennifer Conrad, The Wire China, May 7, 2023
72. Western Banks’ Collusion with the CCP Should Raise Alarms
Sam Goodman, The Diplomat, May 4, 2023
73. Joined-up G7 is best China deterrent
Hugo Dixon, Reuters, May 8, 2023
74. Why the China scandal may be Justin Trudeau's most damaging yet
Nick Allen and Rozina Sabur, The Telegraph, May 9, 2023
75. Why did Canada take so long to expel China’s diplomat? It’s our trade relationship
Margaret McCuaig-Johnston, The Globe and Mail, May 8, 2023