Matt Turpin's China Articles - May 7, 2023
Friends,
My Hoover Institution colleagues Niall Ferguson and Peter Robinson had a discussion last week of the topics at the center of this newsletter, I recommend taking an hour and listening to what they had to say.
Within the context of the Ferguson-Robinson conversation, there’s a piece out from the Freeman Spogli Institute that reveals what happens when Chinese students are given the tools to break through the Communist Party’s elaborate censorship defenses and gain access to ideas and journalism from outside the PRC. While the numbers were low, access to these tools and temporary encouragement created lasting demand for politically sensitive material and circumvention tools.
This suggests that we should redouble our efforts to break the PRC’s ‘Great Firewall.’ Not only does it help Chinese citizens view and understand a wider world beyond what the Party wants them to see, but it also strikes at the heart of the Party’s greatest fear: that Chinese citizens will come to view the Party as illegitimate.
From a ‘competitive strategy’ perspective, a modest investment in breaching these defenses will trigger even more spending and draconian measures by the Party to shore up its defenses and strive for the mirage of ideological purity. Those reactions will accelerate the Party’s efforts to cut the PRC off from the outside world and reduce the attractiveness of the PRC as a market, constraining its economic prospects and engendering even more resentment among Chinese citizens.
As regular readers of this newsletter know, I try to absorb whatever Rana Foroohar at the Financial Times puts out. This week, she makes the case that the United States and Europe (and I would add Japan and Korea) are shifting the international economic paradigm of the last four decades “from efficiency to resilience.” That shift is being driven by geopolitical forces and will have enormous impacts on how the global economy is organized and what types of businesses succeed or fail.
Thanks for reading!
Matt
MUST READ
1. VIDEO – Cold War II: Niall Ferguson on The Emerging Conflict with China
Niall Ferguson, Peter Robinson, Uncommon Knowledge, April 24, 2023
COMMENT – Perhaps the most cogent explanation of the geopolitical situation we find ourselves in… if you want to listen to the podcast, as opposed to the YouTube video, go here or subscribe to Uncommon Knowledge on your preferred podcast platform.
I think it is critical that we start calling this a ‘cold war.’
Nomenclature and narrative are determinative of how seriously we respond to this challenge.
For example, look to the ‘China Competition Bill 2.0’ released by Senator Schumer and other Senate Democrats this week. Putting together this kind of all-encompassing legislation can only really be justified if we are in fact in a second cold war. Congressional leaders would stand a far better chance of putting together a true bipartisan coalition IF they were to recognize the true scope and scale of this issue and committed the country to the sort of generational effort it requires.
2. Does Bypassing Internet Censorship in China Change Individual Beliefs, Attitudes, and Behaviors?
Yuyu Chen and David Yang, Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute, May 1, 2023
Researchers tested whether Chinese students that were given access to uncensored foreign media were interested in consuming more foreign media, whether it changed their minds about sensitive topics, and whether they encouraged their friends to seek out uncensored foreign news. The study found positive results for each.
3. China's exit bans multiply as political control tightens under Xi
James Pomfret and Angel Woo, Reuters, May 2, 2023
The number of Chinese citizens barred from leaving the country has increased under President Xi Jinping's government, as part of a growing trend of restricting freedom of movement for those deemed to be dissenters or a threat to national security.
According to experts, the use of "exit bans'' is an increasingly popular tool of political control in China and has been applied to everyone from dissidents and human rights activists to wealthy business owners and foreign executives. These exit bans have reportedly been used to exert pressure on individuals, and in some cases, to extract information or concessions from them or their families.
4. TikTok Parent ByteDance’s ‘Sensitive Words’ Tool Monitors Discussion of China, Trump, Uyghurs
Alexandra S. Levine, Forbes, May 1, 2023
According to leaked documents reviewed by Forbes, Chinese tech giant ByteDance, the owner of TikTok, developed a tool called "SmartCensor" to suppress content related to Uyghur Muslims in China.
The tool would automatically remove videos that referenced Uyghurs, including content about human rights abuses, as well as videos that showed solidarity with the group. The revelations come as TikTok faces continued scrutiny over its ties to China's government and concerns about censorship on the platform.
5. China Balks at U.S. Push for Better Communications During Crises
Brian Spegle, Wall Street Journal, April 30, 2023
The Chinese Communist Party has pushed back on American efforts to improve communication channels between the two countries during crises.
6. Philippines and Taiwan disclose China maritime and drone incursions
Kathrin Hille, Financial Times, April 28, 2023
The Philippines and Taiwan have reported new incidents of aggressive PRC military actions. The Philippine coast guard reported a confrontation with PRC Navy and Coast Guard vessels during a patrol in the disputed South China Sea, while Taiwan’s defense ministry revealed that a Chinese combat drone had circled the country’s main island.
Japan also highlighted frequent intrusions by Chinese Coast Guard vessels into its territorial waters. The increased assertiveness of countries in the region in publicizing PRC incursions highlights the pressure Beijing is putting on its neighbors and encouraging them to seek collective security arrangements with the United States and each other.
7. China, America and why not all growth is equal
Rana Foroohar, Financial Times, April 30, 2023
Last week was the tenth anniversary of the Rana Plaza factory collapse in Bangladesh, in which 1,100 garment workers were killed because a shoddily constructed factory collapsed on top of them. It turned out that the factory was making goods for major global brands.
The managers who took the decision to outsource to unknown individuals way down the production line were just doing what Finance 101 would tell them to do: move expense off the balance sheet, and treat labour like a cost not an asset. Never mind the risks hidden in plain sight, even those that result in death and despair.
That kind of thinking has been at the centre of global trade for decades. Let capital, goods and labour move where they will, even if that results in human suffering and/or the degradation of the planet. As long as share prices are going up, and consumer costs are going down, there’s no problem.
Chinese labour camps in Xinjiang are perhaps the apex of this sort of thinking. How can any country, or company, compete with state-subsidised operations with few environmental safeguards that are accused of forcing slave labour to dig for silica, which is then used in solar panels, electronics and other types of goods dumped into the world at below market rates?
Answer: you can’t, unless you change the economic rules of the game. The last 40 years of neoliberal economic policy gave us more global growth than ever before, lifting many millions out of poverty, but it also gave us huge amounts of in-country inequality, and numerous negative externalities. These range from forced labour to exacerbating climate change to highly fragile, concentrated supply chains which led to shortages and hyperinflation in key commodities from natural gas to rare earth minerals.
Following the fallout from the war in Ukraine and the growing rivalry with China, the Biden administration, and to a certain extent the EU, has been working to shift the paradigm from efficiency to resilience.
COMMENT – The Biden administration and the EU are shifting their focus from efficiency to resilience in global trade, following decades of neoliberal economic policies that have led to in-country inequality, negative externalities, and fragile supply chains.
To counter the PRC's harmful economic policies, the US and Europe are embracing industrial strategy and subsidizing diversity of production in key areas, such as semiconductors and clean energy. This shift is not about "America alone" or containing China, but rather working with allies to create a system that prioritizes resilience and security in supply chains, while de-risking the global economy.
8. 10 Commandments for the U.S. to Save Its Relationship with Latin America from China
Julio Guzmán, Time, April 27, 2023
The Latin America of today looks more like China’s front garden than America’s backyard. In only 15 years, China has become the region’s largest official creditor, its most enthusiastic investor, and its fastest growing trade partner, on track to surpass the United States in the next 15 years.
Authoritarianism
9. ‘Only 20 per cent of Hong Kong district council seats’ to be directly elected
Jeffie Lam, South China Morning Post, May 1, 2023
10. Chinese censor has shut down over 4,000 websites and 55 apps in 3 months
William Zheng, South China Morning Post, May 2, 2023
11. China’s rulers play the law-and-order card, and lose
The Economist, April 27, 2023
12. Foreign Executives in China ask ‘Who’s Next?’ After Bain Probe
Bloomberg, April 28, 2023
13. Missing Links: A comparison of search censorship in China
Jeffrey Knockel, Ken Kato, and Emile Dirks, Citizen Lab, April 26, 2023
14. China’s CAC Promulgates Administrative Law Enforcement Procedures
Lester Ross, Kenneth Zhou, and Tingting Liu, Wilmer Hale, April 28, 2023
15. Trapped - China’s Expanding Use of Exit Bans
Safeguard Defenders, May 2, 2023
16. China Ratchets Up Pressure on Foreign Companies
Lingling Wei, Wall Street Journal, April 28, 2023
17. China’s ‘men in black’ step up scrutiny of foreign corporate sleuths
Financial Times, May 1, 2023
18. Tibet’s exiled government pushes China on sovereignty claims in bid for leverage
Mure Dickie, Financial Times, May 1, 2023
19. China Is Cracking Down on Bankers. Here Are Some of the Targets
Claire Fu, New York Times, April 27, 2023
Environmental Harms
20. China has already approved more new coal in 2023 than it did in all of 2021
Greenpeace, Greenpeace East Asia, April 24, 2023
Foreign Interference and Coercion
21. Detained Japanese businessman was spy, Chinese envoy says
Ken Moriyasu, Nikkei Asia, April 28, 2023
22. China vows to retaliate if US continues case against police officers
Vanessa Cai, South China Morning Post, April 27, 2023
23. UK visit to China on the cards after coronation olive branch
Oliver Wright, Sunday Times, May 1, 2023
24. What price will Laos need to pay to be saved, and will China pay it?
Mariza Cooray, The Interpreter, May 2, 2023
25. Watching China in Europe - May 2023
Noah Barkin, German Marshall Fund, May 2, 2023
26. Scholz’s new push for China port deal triggers row in German coalition
Ans von der Burchard and Gabriel Rinaldi, Politico, April 27, 2023
27. Canadian lawmaker says China targeted his family for harassment
Leyland Cecco, The Guardian, May 3, 2023
Human Rights and Religious Persecution
28. Chinese who reported on COVID to be released after 3 years
Huizhong Wu, Associated Press, April 30, 2023
29. US lawmakers push SEC to order audit of Shein IPO over Uyghur forced labor fears
Arriana McLymore, Reuters, May 1, 2023
30. Visitors to Commons forced to hand over leaflets on press freedom in Hong Kong
Tom Burgis, The Guardian, May 1, 2023
31. Hong Kong security law keeps tight lid on Labor Day rallies
Pak Yiu, Nikkei Asia, May 2, 2023
32. Rights groups say second Uyghur dies in Thai detention
Jintamas Saksornachi, The Independent, April 27, 2023
33. China’s Missing Million
Aaron Sarin, Persuasion, April 28, 2023
Industrial Policies and Economic Espionage
34. China’s Updated Espionage Legislation: A Massive Risk to Western Companies
Elisabeth Braw, American Enterprise Institute, May 3, 2023
35. China investment consensus cracks as politics fuel fears
Tom Westbrook, Reuters, April 28, 2023
36. China's expanded espionage law has businesses walking on eggshells
Shunsuke Tabeta, Yukio Tajima, and Sayuri Kodama, Nikkei Asia, April 28, 2023
37. Taiwan Sees Accelerating Shift of Production Away from China
Debbu Wu and Jenny Leonard, Bloomberg, May 1, 2023
38. China factory activity unexpectedly cools in April
CNN, April 30, 2023
39. Germany in Talks to Limit Export of Chip Chemicals to China
Michael Nienaber, Jenny Leonard, and Kamil Kowalcze, Bloomberg, April 27, 2023
40. Shaky Signal
Brent Crane, The Wire China, April 30, 2023
41. Beijing’s Bain Raid, Espionage Law Are Self-Sabotage
Nathaniel Taplin, Wall Street Journal, April 28, 2023
42. In China, a Detention and a New Espionage Law Have Businesses Worried
Yoko Kubota and Miho Inada, Wall Street Journal, April 28, 2023
43. Evergrande extends deadline for debtholders to agree to restructuring plan
Thomas Hale, Financial Times, April 28, 2023
44. China’s Oil Strategy Mixes Diplomacy and a Domestic Drilling Push
Weilun Soon, Wall Street Journal, April 29, 2023
45. Airlines dispute adds headwinds to US-China relationship
Demetri Sevastopulo, Joe Leahy, and Claire Bushey, Financial Times, April 29, 2023
46. Asian Development Bank calls on countries to fight protectionism as US-China ties sour
Edward White and Mercedes Ruehl, Financial Times, April 30, 2023
47. China Locks Information on the Country Inside a Black Box
Lingling Wei, Yoko Kubota, and Dan Strumpf, Wall Street Journal, April 30, 2023
48. U.S., Allies Weigh How to Reduce Economic Ties with China
Andrew Duehren and Greg Ip, Wall Street Journal, April 17, 2023
49. US investor interest in China cools as political tensions grow
Nicholas Megaw, Madison Darbyshire, and Hudson Lockett, Financial Times, May 3, 2023
Cyber & Information Technology
50. Huawei sees revenue stagnate in first quarter as US sanctions continue to weigh
Iris Deng, South China Morning Post, April 28, 2023
51. ASML, Europe’s Most Valuable Tech Firm, Is at the Heart of the US-China Chip War
Cagan Koc, Ian King, and Jillian Deutsch, Bloomberg, April 26, 2023
52. Assessing China's approach to technological competition with the United States
Peter Engelke and Emily Weinstein, Atlantic Council, April 24, 2023
53. Carmakers raise concerns at Chinese dominance over connectivity patents
Patricia Nilsson and Anna Gross, Financial Times, April 29, 2023
Military and Security Threats
54. China lodges serious representations with South Korea over joint statement with U.S.
Reuters, April 28, 2023
55. US says Chinese coast guard harassing Philippine vessels
Reuters, April 30, 2023
56. US condemns China's 'harassment' of Philippines in South Pacific
Brie Stimson, Fox News, April 29, 2023
57. China revises conscription law, eyeing Taiwan conflict
Yukio Tajima, Nikkei Asia, May 1, 2023
58. A Vietnamese Perspective on China’s Military Modernization
Nguyen The Phuong, National Bureau of Asian Research, December 15, 2022
59. Pentagon suggests China seeks to seize US satellites
Ian Whittaker, Asia Times, April 26, 2023
60. US Wants to ‘De-Risk,’ Not Decouple, from China, Biden Aide Says
Eric Martin, Bloomberg, April 27, 2023
61. On board a Philippine patrol in contested South China Sea
Jim Gomez, Aaron Favila and Joeal Calupitan, Associated Press, May 2, 2023
62. China: Growing and Going to Sea
James E. Fanell, U.S. Naval Institute, May 2023
63. Is Myanmar building a spy base on Great Coco Island?
Damien Symon and John Pollock, Chatham House, March 31, 2023
64. China says Japan’s military pivot will have ‘serious impact’ on regional stability
Kristin Huang, South China Morning Post, April 30, 2023
An influential Chinese military magazine has strongly criticised Japan’s moves to adopt a more offensive posture in a bid to become a major regional military power, as relations between the two nations become increasingly fractious.
In its latest defence budget, Japan has for the first time shown how its military could carry out long-range strikes against enemy ground troops and surface vessels, according to Modern Ships, a magazine published under the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology and run by the China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation.
A long-range strike scenario showed how Japanese armed forces could target and destroy rival assets by coordinating weaponry, including aerial satellites, submarines, glide bombs, hypersonic cruise missiles and fighter jets, the magazine said in its April issue.
COMMENT – What’s really amazing is that Beijing seems completely obvious to the reason why Tokyo has undertaken a military modernization drive.
65. Chinese Warships and Planes Test Taiwan Defenses
Karen Hao, Wall Street Journal, April 28, 2023
66. Joe Biden says US commitment to defending Philippines is ‘iron clad'
Demetri Sevastopulo, Financial Times, May 1, 2023
One Belt, One Road Strategy
67. China digital currency: Jiangsu city leverages logistics hub status to promote e-CNY in Belt and Road trade
Coco Feng, South Morning China Post, April 24, 2023
Opinion Pieces
68. PODCAST – Can the U.S. Solve the China Dilemma?
Adam Tooze and Cameron Abadi, Ones and Tooze, April 28, 2023
69. China and Russia’s Long Dance
Philip Snow, Project Syndicate, April 28, 2023
70. Xi Jinping's Worst Nightmare: A Potemkin People's Liberation Army
Andrew Scobell, War on the Rocks, May 1, 2023
71. Germany’s China dilemma takes on a new urgency
Constanze Stelzenmüller, Financial Times, April 27, 2023
72. Xi Jinping’s self-serving call to Ukrainian president is bad news for Taiwan
Sophia Yan, Telegraph, April 27, 2023
73. Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen Belongs at APEC
Lance Gooden, Wall Street Journal, April 21, 2023
74. Apple is a Chinese company
Jay Newman, Financial Times, May 2, 2023
75. How Macron Is Blocking EU Strategy on Russia and China
Bart M. J. Szewczyk, Foreign Policy, May 2, 2023
76. Macron in China
Chris Patten, Project Syndicate, April 24, 2023
77. China Owes Us All the Truth About When Covid Emerged
Faye Flam, Bloomberg, April 29, 2023
78. Xi Jinping Can’t Handle an Aging China
Carl Minzner, Foreign Affairs, May 2, 2023
79. The true battleground in the US-China cold war will be in Europe
Zhou Bo, South China Morning Post, May 2, 2023
80. Why are we kowtowing to a sinister dictatorship in China?
Ian Birrell, Daily Mail, May 1, 2023
81. What the Bush-Obama China Memos Reveal
Michael J. Green and Paul Haenle, Foreign Policy, April 29, 2023
The Biden administration's efforts to reset relations with China may falter unless it learns from the mistakes of its predecessors, according to a memo written by a former senior official. The memo argues that both the Bush and Obama administrations failed to recognize the long-term strategic threat posed by China and that the Biden administration must be more strategic, patient, and consistent in its approach. The memo also calls for a multilateral approach, including close coordination with US allies, to address China's challenge.
82. As with Germany in the 1930s, appeasing China now increases the risk of global conflict
Robert Tombs, The Telegraph, April 29, 2023
83. U.S.-China Ties Are Spiraling. The Cabinet’s Stuck in a Turf War
Bob Davis, Politico, April 27, 2023
84. How to Spy on China
Peter Mattis, Foreign Affairs, April 28, 2023
85. How China Could Save Putin’s War in Ukraine
Liana Fix and Michael Kimmage, Foreign Affairs, April 26, 2023
86. TikTok Suspends a Film on Jimmy Lai
Wall Street Journal, May 3, 2023
87. Investing in China: Don't Bother Unless You're Chinese
Shuli Ren, Bloomberg, May 2, 2023