Matt Turpin's China Articles - November 20, 2022
Friends,
Last week, I commented that Indian Prime Minister Modi and Xi Jinping had not spoken since 2019 and had seemingly not acknowledged one another when they stood next to each other at the SCO Summit in September.
It seems that they did meet and briefly speak this week at the G20 banquet in Bali. We have no insight into what they discussed but based on the video available, they appeared to exchange a few friendly words: perhaps Modi invited Xi to attend next year’s G20 Summit in New Delhi.
Noticed an interesting piece from the Financial Times this week on how Russia and the PRC were forced to back down at the G20 Summit as the host Indonesia and countries like India, Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil seemed determined to maintain G20 unity and force a qualified condemnation of Putin’s war against Ukraine. While it appears that Chinese negotiators pushed hard to remove any reference and protect Russia, in the end both Beijing and Moscow had top back down (See ’A remarkable job’: how Russia and China buckled in the face of a united G20, Henry Foy and Mercedes Ruehl, Financial Times, November 17, 2022).
If this is true, then we might need to re-examine the assumptions about the support Moscow and Beijing have across the ‘Global South.’
Thanks for reading!
Matt
MUST READ
1. AUDIO – Drum Tower: Back to the future… Do Universal Values Really Exist
David Rennie and Alice Su, The Economist, November 14, 2022
As China re-shapes the existing world order, its officials argue that the values behind it are Western and not universal. Western leaders worry that China is merely trying to make the world safe for dictatorships. We ask whether universal values exist.
COMMENT – A new podcast from The Economist’s Beijing bureau chief, David Rennie and Senior China correspondent, Alice Su, about the PRC.
2. VIDEO – German vice chancellor: 'We've made up our mind about China'
Richard Walker, Deutsche Welle, November 13, 2022
Germany's Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck has spoken forcefully about his government's efforts to rethink economic ties with China, saying "We have to diversify." Habeck spoke to DW after weeks of controversy over Germany’s approach to China.
Vice Chancellor Habeck – “We are interested in trade with China, but not stupid trade.”
Mikko Huotari, Internationale Politik Quarterly, November 17, 2022
The Chinese Communist Party’s 20th National Congress was an all-out victory for Xi Jinping. China won’t necessarily be more crisis-proof as a result, but it will become more combative.
…
The core of Xi’s power is the CCP’s Politburo and its seven-member Standing Committee, but he has also placed extremely loyal allies in positions far and wide, in key power centers in Beijing and across the country. Politicians regarded as pragmatic, technocratic, or business friendly—like Vice Premier Hu Chunhua, for example—either did not make it into the inner leadership circle or found a place for themselves in a tableau clearly marked by a “Xi dominance” stronger than ever in systemic terms. Cynical observers already see these figures as pawns that could be sacrificed in the next crisis. Other observers see them as being more independent, but also interpret this as a testament to Xi’s power—he can afford to let them be so.
Xi’s triumph goes well beyond his personnel decisions. His ideological system now permeates key party documents, and new “banner slogans” like “two anchors” and “two safeguards” —which sometimes sound irritatingly cryptic to Western ears—reinforce Xi’s central role in the party and its pantheon of past leaders. Party media have taken the lead in dramatically accentuating his role—variously as “leader of the people,” “core leader,” and increasingly also as “helmsman,” in reference to the “Great Helmsman,” Mao Zedong.
COMMENT – Mikko Huotari, the Executive Director of the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS), Europe’s premier think tank focused on China, provides an excellent piece on the implications of the 20th Party Congress.
4. Kishida Tells Asia Leaders China Infringing on Japan's Sovereignty
Ju-min Park and Leika Kihara, US News, November 13, 2022
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told Asian leaders on Sunday that China is continuously and increasingly taking actions that infringe on Japan's sovereignty and escalate tensions in the region.
5. Dozens of Americans Are Barred from Leaving China, Adding to Tensions
James T. Areddy and Brian Spegele, Wall Street Journal, November 13, 2022
It has been nearly five years since police here told Henry Cai, a U.S. citizen from California, that he couldn’t leave China.
Just before Christmas 2017, he was stopped at the airport at the end of a business trip. Mr. Cai later learned somebody was trying to force him to pay an outstanding debt of several million dollars owed by a Beijing company where he was a director and shareholder.
COMMENT – I hope the plight of these American citizens was on the agenda when Biden met with Xi this week. For all the talk about establishing guardrails or a floor under the relationship, one of the key requirements must be that the PRC stop holding U.S. citizens hostage.
For everyone considering travel to the PRC now that there seems to be some opening, I recommend consulting the U.S. State Department’s “Travel Advisory” which remains at “Level 3: Reconsider Travel” for the PRC, Hong Kong and Macau. This is not a country that U.S. Citizens are safe to travel to, anyone who thinks it is, are fooling themselves.
The State Department clearly warns citizens of this danger and admits that the U.S. Government has little to no recourse should the PRC detain someone or prevent them from leaving the PRC:
The PRC government arbitrarily enforces local laws, including carrying out wrongful detentions and using exit bans on U.S. citizens and citizens of other countries without fair and transparent process under the law.
The Department has determined that at least one U.S. national is wrongfully detained by the PRC government.
U.S. citizens traveling or residing in the PRC, including the Hong Kong SAR and Macau SAR, may be detained without access to U.S. consular services or information about their alleged crime. U.S. citizens in the PRC may be subjected to prolonged interrogations and extended detention without due process of law.
Foreigners in the PRC and the Hong Kong SAR, including but not limited to businesspeople, former foreign government personnel, and journalists have been unjustly interrogated and detained by PRC officials for alleged violations of PRC national security laws. The PRC has also interrogated, detained, and expelled U.S. citizens living and working in the PRC.
Security personnel may detain and/or deport U.S. citizens for sending private electronic messages critical of the PRC, Hong Kong SAR, or Macau SAR governments.
In addition, the PRC government has used restrictions on travel or departure from the PRC, or so-called exit bans, to:
compel individuals to participate in PRC government investigations,
pressure family members of the restricted individual to return to the PRC from abroad,
resolve civil disputes in favor of PRC citizens, and
gain bargaining leverage over foreign governments.
In most cases, U.S. citizens only become aware of an exit ban when they attempt to depart the PRC, and there is no reliable mechanism or legal process to find out how long the ban might continue or to contest it in a court of law. Relatives, including minor children, of those under investigation in the PRC, may become subject to an exit ban.
The PRC, Hong Kong SAR, and Macau SAR governments do not recognize dual nationality. U.S.-PRC citizens and U.S. citizens of Chinese descent may be subject to additional scrutiny and harassment, and the PRC, Hong Kong SAR, and Macau SAR governments may prevent the U.S. Embassy or U.S. Consulate General from providing consular services.
Of course, if this were any other country holding dozens of U.S. Citizens, the State Department would have changed its classification to “Level 4: Do Not Travel.”
6. U.S.-China Relations in the Tank: A Handbook for an Era of Persistent Confrontation
Michael J. Mazarr, CSIS, November 18, 2022
AUTHORITARIANISM
7. Violent protests in Guangzhou put curbs under strain
Stephen McDonell, BBC, November 15, 2022
Crowds of residents in southern China's industrial metropolis Guangzhou have escaped a compulsory lockdown and clashed with police, as anger at strict coronavirus curbs boiled over.
Dramatic footage shows some tearing down Covid control barriers. Riot teams have now been deployed in the area.
8. Can China let go of Zero Covid?
Bill Hayton, UnHerd, November 14, 2022
During his decade as Party general-secretary, Xi Jinping has prioritised one thing above all: control. We can argue about whether Xi is a Marxist or not, but there can be no doubt that he’s a Leninist. For him, the Communist Party is the machine that keeps the country together and drives it forward. All the ills of the 2000s — the corruption, loose morals and the weakening of the sinews of state — can be blamed on the loss of Party discipline.
For the past decade, Xi has been revivifying Party control of society and the economy. In 2017, for instance, the Party’s charter was revised to include the line: “Party, government, army, society and education, east, west, south and north, the party leads on everything.” State-owned enterprises have been rebuilt, private firms and foreign companies have been obliged to set up Party cells.
Zero Covid, then, is a means to exert the same level of control over apartment blocks, residential compounds and private lives. Even after the tide of Covid eventually retreats, China will be left with the reinforced surveillance and the digital and physical barricades that have been constructed over the past three years. Yet if, as expected, the economy heads further south in the coming months, the Party is going to need something else to keep the people mobilised.
9. Millions of missing women: China grapples with legacy of one-child policy as population ages
Helen Davidson and Verna Yu, The Guardian, November 14, 2022
10. Friends in High Places: What We Know - and What We Don't - After Xi's Clean Sweep
Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, November 11, 2022
As the dust settles from China’s 20th Party Congress, Xi Jinping has emerged triumphant. It’s not just a third term as General Secretary he’s secured, but a Politburo stacked with more loyalists than almost anyone expected. It was a show of strength that may have rattled markets, but also one that put those rumours of coups and rebellions firmly to bed.
So what comes next for China? For now, Xi's focus seems to be continuity and consolidation. But as pressures at home and abroad continue to mount, the risk is that Xi’s clean sweep is setting the party up for trouble down the line.
11. China’s pro-business culture is in doubt, says investment trust Scottish Mortgage
Patrick Hosking, Times of London, November 12, 2022
Scottish Mortgage, the technology-focused FTSE 100 investment trust, has cut back some of its biggest investments in China, warning that the country’s pro-business culture which produced so many success stories is now in doubt.
The trust also revealed that it had breached for the first time its 30 per cent ceiling on the amount of exposure it has to unlisted companies, leaving it unable to take part for now in capital-raisings by potential unicorns.
12. Party Congress implications for the EU + Germany's China policy
Francesca Ghiretti and Grzegorz Stec, MERICS, November 10, 2022
13. Rishi Sunak ditches plan to class China as a ‘threat’ to UK security
Eleni Courea, Politico, November 15, 2022
14. China's Xi invites Dutch PM for visit, says don't politicise trade
Toby Sterling, Reuters, November 16, 2022
Chinese president Xi Jinping has invited Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte to visit Beijing next year, following a bilateral meeting at the G20 conference in Bali in which Xi urged the Netherlands not to politicise trade.
Xi's remarks were an apparent reference to U.S. calls for allied countries including the Netherlands to adopt U.S. restrictions on exporting semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China.
COMMENT – Xi asked Rutte to resist "the politicisation of economic and trade issues and maintain the stability of global supply chains"… the same Chinese leader who ‘politicized’ trade against Australia, Lithuania, the Philippines, Germany, Czech Republic, Canada, Taiwan, South Korea, Norway, Sweden, and Japan… just to name a few.
15. BlackRock shelves China bond ETF
Financial Times, November 12, 2022
BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has put off the launch of an exchange traded fund that invests in Chinese bonds, amid growing tensions between Washington and Beijing and a reversal in the gap between Chinese and US yields.
16. Hong Kong Demands Inquiry After Protest Song Is Played Before Rugby Match
Tiffany May, New York Times, November 14, 2022
“Glory to Hong Kong,” popular among pro-democracy protesters in 2019, was broadcast instead of the Chinese national anthem.
The Hong Kong government on Monday demanded “a full and in-depth investigation” after a song associated with the pro-democracy protests of 2019 was played instead of the Chinese national anthem before a match by the city’s rugby sevens team at a tournament in Incheon, South Korea.
On Sunday, as Hong Kong players stood shoulder-to-shoulder before a match against South Korea, the protest song “Glory to Hong Kong” blared through stadium speakers. Organizers were supposed to have played the anthem of the home countries of both teams. As a semiautonomous Chinese territory, Hong Kong shares China’s national anthem, “March of the Volunteers.”
ENVIRONMENTAL HARMS
17. China Climate Advisers Say More Coal Needed for Energy Security
Alfred Cang, Bloomberg, November 15, 2022
18. Net-zero Europe risks a heavy dependence on China
Alexander Brown, MERICS, October 31, 2022
Broadening critical-material supplies will not be enough to diversify green supply chains away from China, says Alexander Brown. Components and products sourcing has to change as well. The upcoming UN Climate Change Conference in Egypt is an important opportunity for Europe to shape a new vision.
FOREIGN INTERFERENCE AND COERCION
19. Worker at Canada's largest electricity producer charged with spying for China, police say
Steve Scherer, Reuters, November 14, 2022
An employee at Canada's largest electricity producer Hydro-Quebec who was involved in researching battery materials has been charged with espionage for allegedly trying to steal trade secrets to benefit China, Canadian police said on Monday.
20. Dozens of cyberespionage operations perpetrated against Canada since 2010: study
Jim Bronskill, The Globe and Mail, September 15, 2022
21. Defending our elections from Chinese interference should be a nonpartisan cause
Robin Urback, The Globe and Mail, November 14, 2022
22. Xi rebukes Canada's Trudeau over 'leaked' discussions
Tsukasa Hadano, Nikkei Asia, November 17, 2022
Leaders talked privately about China's 'interference,' Canadian paper reports.
Chinese President Xi Jinping confronted Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit here Wednesday to complain about a purported media leak of a private discussion between the two leaders a day earlier, candid footage posted online shows.
"Everything we discussed has been leaked to the papers. That's not appropriate," Xi told Trudeau during a 10-minute conversation through an interpreter. "That's not the way our conversation was conducted."
COMMENT – Funny that Xi Jinping doesn’t appreciate having his private discussions leaked… perhaps if he didn’t conduct political interference in countries like Canada or take Canadian citizens hostage, then leaders like Prime Minister Trudeau would respect him more and keep their discussions private… ‘mutual respect’ has to go both ways.
Let’s cut to the tape…
Annie Bergeron-Oliver, Twitter, November 16, 2022
24. China’s businesses get top billing at World Cup after team flops
John Power, Al Jazeera, November 16, 2022
Finbarr Bermingham, South China Morning Post, November 12, 2022
Minister says Dublin will follow tighter EU rules on foreign investment – imposed amid growing concerns about ties with Beijing – but China ‘can’t be ignored’
Coveney condemns as ‘unacceptable’ an illicit Chinese police station that was operating in Dublin and said the embassy has been asked to prevent a repeat.
26. China’s offshore ‘police service stations’ spark European alarm
Financial Times, November 14, 2022
In 2018, police in China’s eastern county of Qingtian proudly declared that they had set up 15 “police service stations” in cities across the world, their duties ranging from helping compatriots with paperwork to “gathering intelligence” and “resolving disputes among overseas Chinese”.
The move — followed in January this year by the announcement by police in China’s Fuzhou city that they had set up 30 “overseas service stations” from Buenos Aires to Tokyo — initially drew little international notice.
But in recent weeks the facilities have sparked alarm among European governments already distrustful of China’s growing extraterritorial influence.
HUMAN RIGHTS AND RELIGIOUS PERSECUTION
27. MPs and peers urge Sunak to sanction pro-Beijing Hong Kong officials
Stefan Boscia, City AM, November 15, 2022
Rishi Sunak must slap sanctions on pro-Beijing Hong Kong officials for alleged human rights abuses, a group of cross-party MPs and peers has said.
The All Parliamentary Party Group (APPG) on Hong Kong today said the British government should financially sanction Hong Kong chief executive John Lee Ka-chiu, ex-chief executive Carrie Lam and other senior officials for “serious human rights abuses and systematic breaches of the Sino-British Joint Declaration”.
28. Race to save Manchu language of Qing dynasty
Didi Tang, Times of London, November 15, 2022
During China’s last imperial dynasty the Manchu language was the official tongue of 450 million Chinese. Today, the number of people speaking Manchu has been whittled down to no more than 100, most of them elderly.
29. China’s elite seek safety abroad
Financial Times, November 11, 2022
For Isaac, a Chinese business consultant in his late 20s, Xi Jinping’s stunning consolidation of power at last month’s Communist party congress was the final straw.
The graduate of a top Beijing university, who asked not to be further identified for fear of reprisals, is hunting for work in the Middle East. As with most of his generation, he is an only child. His parents are “too old” to leave with him, but they are happy he got out at the end of summer.
“If there is hope of change [after Xi] I’ll consider going back,” he said. “Until then, I’m seeking opportunities in other countries.”
…
According to interviews with those leaving as well as lawyers, immigration experts and consultants working with wealthy Chinese individuals, the Communist party congress in October was a watershed in how the country’s elite view China’s future.
Attempting to flee carries immense personal and financial risk, however, owing to Beijing’s strict border and capital controls. Even Chinese nationals who successfully navigate the journey to a life abroad remain exposed to Xi’s extralegal security forces.
“In China, they play for keeps. If you’re going to pull the trigger on this, and you screw it up, that’s it. We’re talking exit bans, seizures, money disappearing,” said David Lesperance, a Europe-based lawyer who assists wealthy families leaving China.
COMMENT – How many more stories are there out there like this one?
INDUSTRIAL POLICIES AND ECONOMIC ESPIONAGE
Colin Freeze, The Globe and Mail, November 14, 2022
31. The U.S.-China tech battle from inside ZTE
Chris Marquis, The China Project, November 16, 2022
32. China’s chip equipment makers struggle to profit at home from US export controls
Financial Times, November 14, 2022
As US export controls bite, Chinese manufacturers of equipment needed to make semiconductors are expected to benefit from a rush of domestic orders, though executives and analysts warn the boost could be shortlived.
Since Washington introduced sweeping restrictions on October 7 to limit Chinese companies’ ability to obtain or manufacture advanced computer chips, Yangtze Memory Technology, China’s largest memory chip maker, has issued at least 20 tenders for a broad range of chipmaking equipment.
“The current strategy is that if there is workable domestic semiconductor production equipment, even though [the suppliers] need help, we will buy from Chinese companies. If not, we shop from non-US vendors, mostly Japanese,” said a senior YMTC engineer.
“I anticipate most of the orders would end up in the hands of domestic suppliers who would prioritise clients like us, but there are still quite a few pieces beyond their capability,” the person said.
The company will instead replace US toolmakers such as KLA and Applied Materials with Japanese ones, including Hitachi and Tokyo Electron, in a sign of how homegrown suppliers still lag foreign rivals with their technology.
33. China's talent gap + Shipbuilding industry + Foreign investment in manufacturing sector
Alexander Brown and Gregor Sebastian, MERICS, November 2, 2022
34. Chinese battery makers are setting up in Europe
Ling, The China Project, November 11, 2022
As Europe embraces electric vehicles, Chinese battery makers are rushing in to raise capital and expand factory production.
35. Biden’s Chip Curbs Outdo Trump in Forcing World to Align on China
Bloomberg, November 13, 2022
As the president meets with Xi Jinping, Washington’s tough new export controls on key technology are riling Beijing and US allies alike.
President Joe Biden came to office pledging to abandon Donald Trump’s with-us-or-against-us approach to China. Instead, he’s forcing US partners to pick sides in a deepening global technology standoff.
Sweeping US curbs announced last month on the sale of semiconductors and chipmaking equipment to China mark a step change in the Biden administration’s approach to its chief geopolitical rival. That’s not just a challenge to Beijing, but also asks tough questions of allies — and presents Washington with a dilemma over how far it’s willing to squeeze them to comply.
36. Germany must 'be more careful' with China, Habeck tells DW
Mark Hallam, Deutsche Welle, November 13, 2022
Germany needs to diversify its business interests in Asia to reduce dependency on China, Economy Minister Robert Habeck has told DW in Singapore. He said the war in Ukraine helped demonstrate the need to diversify.
"We are, of course, interested in trade with China, but not in stupid trade with China," Germany's Robert Habeck told DW in Singapore on Sunday.
Speaking on the sidelines of a conference exploring ways to diversify German business investments in Asia, Habeck said that Russia's invasion of Ukraine had shown Berlin, and the world, the dangers of excessive reliance on single trading partners.
Habeck disputed that Germany's stance on China remains somewhat confused, as a more cautionary tone being has been struck by politicians in recent months, while bearing in mind the fact that China remains Germany's second-largest export market and its largest source for imports.
"The general strategy is completely clear," Habeck said. "We want to protect our critical infrastructure. We want to protect our sectors where critical goods and knowledge are developed. And beyond that, of course, we want to have a trade relationship with China. It's not decoupling."
Here, Habeck said the German approach was slightly softer than that of the US.
"I know that the US is sometimes saying harsher words, and this is not our way," he said. "So where it's unproblematic, it's not a problem to have trade with China. But in the problematic areas, we have to be more careful than we have been before."
37. The bumpy road ahead in China for Germany's carmakers
Gregor Sebastian, MERICS, October 27, 2022
Key findings
Germany’s carmakers and policymakers share an interest in the long-term success of the German automotive industry. However, they are no longer aligned on how best to achieve this goal and to calibrate exposure and entanglement with China.
German carmakers are deepening their integration into China's innovation system. By establishing partnerships with Chinese tech companies and increasing investment into research and development (R&D), they are trying to retain their market shares in China's emerging electric vehicle (EV) market.
For some technologies, German carmakers are moving away from a “in China, for China” R&D strategy to what could become an “in China, for the world” one. They are increasing their product development and research activities in China not just for the local market but for the global one, too.
Their new China investments could help German carmakers remain globally competitive and even outpace their rivals. However, the political and geopolitical circumstances of the last 30 years with regard to China have changed, and their deeper integration now takes place in a radically different environment.
The new China investments of German carmakers could disrupt their strategic alignment with their country’s policymakers. While the investments could help them retain their global competitiveness, these might also benefit China’s economy more than Germany’s.
German carmakers are in a bind between holding back on further investments in China and potentially losing global competitiveness. A greater entanglement in Beijing’s goals can potentially alienate key stakeholders including in government and civil society as well as investors.
Under these circumstances, Germany’s government should reconsider the logic of what has come to be called automotive foreign policy. Going forward, what is good for German carmakers in China might not be good for Germany (and Europe). Policymakers should assess the new realities and fine-tune government support mechanisms, such as investment guarantees, for the long-term benefit of the German economy.
COMMENT – It is even worse than Gregor Sebastian describes, since German carmakers don’t even “own” their operations in China (these are joint ventures, mostly with PRC State-Owned Enterprises). As Xi Jinping has made quite clear to the technology, real estate, education and financial services sectors, contracts and private ownership are just ‘scraps of paper.’
Volkswagen and others have been investing massive amounts of shareholder Euros in the PRC to develop technology and manufacturing processes for the transition to EVs, while neglecting European-based capabilities. The only thing protecting those investments are promises from the PRC… promises that the Party has demonstrated repeatedly that it does not consider itself bound to keep. When a geopolitical crisis arrives (and one most certainly will), all of those capital investments will belong to their joint venture partner, the Chinese Government and its one-Party regime.
There will be much crying and gnashing of teeth as the boards and C-Suites of these carmakers are revealed as powerless to prevent this from happening. Lawyers, contracts, and arbitration are NOT effective safeguards when your counter-party is not bound by the rule of law and you have unwisely placed everything of value within their jurisdiction. Those carmakers will then turn to the German Government and the European Union to indemnify them for this wholly predicted outcome.
As with Berlin’s mistaken approach to Moscow over the past two decades, which enabled, rather than deterred aggression, it will be European citizens, their companies, and the NATO Alliance that pay the price for this deeply un-strategic thinking.
On multiple occasions, I have heard my former German and EU counterparts assure me that they are NOT naïve… it is time that they shift from rhetorical to substantive proof of this assertion and it’s time for them to adopt the Obama doctrine: “don’t do stupid shit.”
CYBER AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
38. ‘The Cashless Revolution’ Review: They’ve Got Your Number
Edward Chancellor, Wall Street Journal, November 13, 2022
When payments are made in digital currency, the chances of state surveillance increase. Chinese fintech is a case study.
The days of hard cash may be numbered. Having invented paper money more than 1,000 years ago, China is now leading the charge into credit-card free online payments. It is also developing its own digital currency, one that could allow the state to observe and control every financial transaction. Martin Chorzempa’s “The Cashless Revolution” engagingly describes this state of affairs and, along the way, presents a cautionary tale, since dozens of countries around the world are contemplating the launch of their own digital currencies.
39. U.S. FBI director says TikTok poses national security concerns
David Shepardson, Reuters, November 15, 2022
MILITARY AND SECURITY THREATS
40. Rising tension in the Himalayas: A geospatial analysis of Chinese border incursions into India
Jan-Tino Brethouwer, Robbert Fokkink, Kevin Greene, et al, Plos One, November 10, 2022
The China-India border is the longest disputed border in the world. The countries went to war in 1962 and there have been recurring border skirmishes ever since. Reports of Chinese incursions into Indian territory are now a frequent occurrence. This rising tension between the world’s most populous countries not only poses risks for global security and the world economy, but also has a negative impact on the unique ecology of the Himalayas, because of the expanding military infrastructure.
We have assembled a unique data set of the dates and locations of the major incursions over the past 15 years. We find that the conflict can be separated into two independent conflicts, the western and eastern sectors. The incursions in these sectors are statistically independent. However, major incidents do lead to an increased tension that persists for years all along the entire Line of Actual Control (LAC). This leads us to conclude that an agreement on the exact location of a limited number of contested regions, such as the Doklam plateau on the China-Bhutan border, has the potential to significantly defuse the conflict, and could potentially settle the dispute at a further date.
Building on insights from game theory, we find that the Chinese incursions in the west are strategically planned and may aim for a more permanent control over specific contested areas. This finding is in agreement with other studies into the expansionist strategy of the current Chinese government.
41. In diplomatic flurry, European leaders press China’s Xi Jinping on opposing nuclear weapons
Finbarr Bermingham, South China Morning Post, November 16, 2022
42. Ministry mum on coast guard confrontation
Taipei Times, November 14, 2022
The Ministry of National Defense on Saturday declined to comment on the authenticity of an audio recording of an apparent confrontation between a Taiwanese navy vessel and a Chinese navy destroyer off eastern Taiwan.
In the recording, a person, allegedly an officer on the Chinese destroyer Xiamen, can be heard saying that there is no border of Taiwan’s contiguous zone during a radio exchange with the guided-missile destroyer ROCS Ma Kong.
The recording, posted on social media, was allegedly made by the Marshall Islands-flagged bulk carrier Lady Neeti, which was sailing nearby when the exchange took place.
43. China gives 1st close-up glimpse of cutting-edge stealth fighter
Yuri Momoi, Nikkei Asia, November 14, 2022
44. China’s Global Port Investments Give Rise to Security Worries
Niharika Mandhana, Wall Street Journal, November 13, 2022
Security concerns related to Chinese investments in overseas ports are mounting as the country’s firms acquire more stakes at shipping hubs around the world and geopolitical tensions rise.
Chinese companies have expanded investments at foreign ports in recent years and now run major container terminals in locations including Belgium, Israel, Spain, Sri Lanka and the United Arab Emirates. All told, Chinese and Hong Kong-based firms hold stakes in terminal leases or concessions at 95 foreign ports, according to research by Isaac B. Kardon of the U.S. Naval War College and Wendy Leutert of Indiana University.
ONE BELT, ONE ROAD STRATEGY
45. China circles El Salvador’s economy as country edges toward crypto plunge
Mat Youkee, The Guardian, November 15, 2022
46. West plays a tired, old tune on matching China’s Belt and Road
Barbara Moens and Stuart Lau, Politico, November 15, 2022
47. For locals, a China-funded port in Pakistan brings fears of being erased
Syed Fazl-e-Haider, The China Project, November 15, 2022
The Gwadar seaport was supposed to develop the local economy, connect Pakistan to the world, and give China access to the Indian Ocean. So why aren’t locals happy with it?
Funded and operated by China, Pakistan’s port at Gwadar has been touted as a competitor to regional ports like Dubai in the UAE and Chabahar Port in Iran. But what started off as a small fishing town has now transformed into a securitized and segregated harbor settlement, whose economic benefits are not enjoyed by the local population.
Back in 2015, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Pakistan’s then prime minister Nawaz Sharif unveiled plans to expand the development of a deep-water port at the small town of Gwadar. The project is a key part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which was originally proposed to involve $87 billion of investment from Beijing, and is a major part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
48. China-Turkey ties tipped for growth under belt and road but NATO, Uygur issue stand in the way
Kandy Wong, South China Morning post, November 14, 2022
OPINION PIECES
49. Business Is Far from Usual in Hong Kong
L. Gordon Crovitz and Mark Clifford, Wall Street Journal, November 15, 2022
The vague terms in Beijing’s National Security Law mean no business in Hong Kong is safe.
Hong Kong leaders would like the world to think the financial hub is back to normal as it reopens for international business. At a conference this month of more than 200 of the world’s top bankers, John Lee, Hong Kong’s chief executive, reassured attendees that “the rule of law is sacrosanct.” “Fundamental rights and freedoms, including freedom of speech, of the press, of assembly, are enshrined in and protected by the Basic Law,” Mr. Lee said, referring to China’s guarantee of a large degree of autonomy to Hong Kong. But Beijing’s 2020 National Security Law—also called the NSL—has done the opposite, allowing the Chinese Communist Party to stomp its boot on Hong Kong’s free society and markets.
Business is far from usual in Hong Kong. As the two American board members of Next Digital, a Hong Kong publishing company, we know this firsthand. Jimmy Lai, a self-made billionaire who fled to Hong Kong from communist China as a child, founded Next Digital and its Apple Daily, a popular pro-democracy newspaper. Next Digital became a publicly traded company in 1999, and Apple Daily had more than 600,000 online subscribers in 2020.
50. China in Eurasia: Xi Gets Pragmatic about Russia at the G20
Reid Standish, Radio Free Europe, November 16, 2022
Many analysts are of the opinion that Xi knew about Putin's decision to invade but expected a quick victory, which perhaps was what Putin believed at the time.
Others point to a steady stream of dismissals from Chinese officials and experts about the likelihood of an invasion in February and the fact that Beijing did not evacuate its citizens from Ukraine – like Western nations did – as evidence that China was not expecting a war.
China certainly has its own interests in keeping a distance from Moscow’s war and using that space to do some upkeep with the West. But perhaps the most important point here is that even if Putin did blindside Xi, China has stuck with Russia despite its battlefield failures, political isolation, and the atrocities its troops are accused of committing.
Again, this is pragmatism more than anything else. As Chinese experts often say, even if Russia is looking unattractive these days, why would Beijing abandon its main anti-Western partner as China continues to be in the crosshairs of rising American pressure?
51. Why Japan Should Join AUKUS
Michael Auslin, Foreign Policy, November 15, 2022
A new quad is coalescing in the Indo-Pacific, and it is likely to have an even greater impact than the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, a grouping that brings together Australia, India, Japan, and the United States. The new alignment is coming about as Australia, Britain, Japan, and the United States increasingly align their security interests against the growth of China’s influence and power. The prospect of adding Japan to the Australia-United Kingdom-United States defense cooperation pact, established in 2021 and known as AUKUS—which would turn the group into JAUKUS—could transform security cooperation among liberal democracies in the Indo-Pacific like no other previous alliance or quasi-alliance has managed.
52. China’s broken promise of prosperity
George Magnus, UnHerd, October 19, 2022
The CCP’s legitimacy has rested on its ability to assure citizens that economic prosperity would only improve, and yet the prospects in this decade and beyond suggest strongly that this might not happen as expected. China’s growth rate is shrinking from about 5-6% in the 2010s to perhaps no more than 2.5-3% in the 2020s. Common Prosperity may be the CCP’s last chance to address the heart of the problem, but as far as we can tell, this is based more on hope than evidence. The possibility emerges, then, of either rising social stress or unrest — or of political instability in the upper echelons of the CCP.
53. Why India overtaking China as most populous country is more than symbolic
Julian Borger, The Guardian, November 14, 2022
54. The Future of US-China Relations
George Friedman, Geopolitical Futures, November 15, 2022
Two things brought this to a head. The first was Russia’s attack on Ukraine. The willingness of Washington to wage a clever war, marrying U.S. weapons to Ukrainian forces, demonstrated a capability China did not believe the United States had in its repertoire. China’s alliance with Russia, which was designed to confront the United States in two theaters, collapsed before it was put in place. China reevaluated America’s military power, will and alliance structure and saw a military conflict as more dangerous to China than to the U.S.
55. Will China and Co. really dominate the 21st century? Asian decline is more likely
Simon Commander and Saul Estrin, The Globe and Mail, November 16, 2022