The CCP’s Kryptonite
PM Takaichi
Friends,
I think we’ve found the Chinese Communist Party’s kryptonite: a strong Japanese woman.
Beijing is having a proper freak out because the new Japanese Prime Minister stated the obvious during a session of the Japanese parliament a week ago.
She was asked what Japan would do if the PRC attacked Taiwan. She said that action, if it was taking place in the Taiwan and Philippine Straits. would constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan. That term is very specific because under the Japanese Constitution a “survival-threatening situation” could justify the mobilization and employment of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces.
This is similar to what President Biden said on multiple occasions during his Administration, including once while standing next to Fumio Kishida, the then-Japanese Prime Minister, in Tokyo.
Within hours, a senior PRC diplomat in Japan had threatened to decapitate the Japanese Prime Minister for saying this.
The PRC Government advised its citizens not travel to Japan, saying that the situation creates “significant risks to the personal safety and lives of Chinese citizens in Japan.”
[NOTE: I’m baffled about how the personal safety and lives of Chinese citizens in Japan are at all threatened by Takaichi’s remarks… but what hey, the CCP isn’t known for being logically coherent]
Then later in the week, the PRC’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson warned that:
“If Japan dares to militarily intervene in the Taiwan Strait situation, it will constitute an act of aggression, and China will deliver a head-on and severe blow.”
As if to answer the question, what does a “head-on and severe blow” entail… PRC netizens took to social media to threaten nuclear strikes against Japan.
So much for that “no first-use” policy, apparently mobilizing in response to a PRC war of aggression on Japan’s doorstep constitutes a “declar[ing] war on China.”
I wonder if the PRC also plans to use nukes against the Taiwanese if they fight back or against the United States if America mobilizes?
This same netizen felt it necessary to answer shortly after the first tweet.
Of course, I can’t help myself but imagine a dinner conversation between PRC and Japanese diplomats.
All kidding aside, the CCP is really pissed. Prime Minister Takaichi is saying the quiet part out loud, that Beijing’s constant threats, coercion, and aggressive military exercises around Taiwan have convinced the PRC’s neighbors that Beijing does NOT intend to be peaceful and is simply waiting for an opportunity to attack.
Some might see all this and think that Tokyo should back down, but I think Beijing needs to be very, very careful.
China has a long losing record when it comes to military conflicts with Japan. The only time China has ever been on the winning side of that fight in the last 150 years is when the United States defeated Japan and forced the Imperial Army in China to surrender.
The PLA certainly did not defeat Japan.
The Chinese Communists were hiding in Yan’an, thousands of miles away from China’s main population centers that were occupied by the Japanese.
The United States defeated Japan and then let China participate in the Japanese surrender ceremony on board the USS Missouri in Tokyo Bay on September 2, 1945.
I don’t think Beijing should expect the same kind of help from Washington again.
If we go back a little farther, perhaps the Chinese Communist Party should study up on the Battle of Pungdo, the first naval battle of the First Sino-Japanese War.
In the early months of 1894, the Qing Dynasty sought to take advantage of a peasant rebellion that was spreading in southern Korea to expand Chinese control over its client state. The Japanese Government viewed this expansion of Chinese power as a threat and sought to counterbalance Chinese influence on the peninsula and deter military adventurism by the Chinese.
In June 1894, the Japanese initiated negotiations with the Chinese to start a phased withdrawal of each other’s forces. Japan offered to withdraw one of its brigades near Seoul if the Chinese made a similar withdrawal from near Asan (the bay south of Seoul). Instead, the Chinese landed 8,000 more troops on July 16th to reinforce their position. Japan then delivered an ultimatum, threatening to take military action if any more Chinese troops arrived.
In late July, believing that the Japanese were bluffing, the Chinese commander ordered an additional 1,100 troops aboard a British chartered transport ship and escorted by a pair of Chinese cruisers and a gunboat, to land near Asan Bay.
Almost three hours after sunrise on July 25th, 1894, the Imperial Japanese Navy detected the Chinese troop transport ship and its escorts near Pungdo Island and attacked. The Japanese made short work of the Chinese Navy. They severely damaged both cruisers, sunk the gunboat Kwang-yi (pictured below as most of the crew swam to shore), and sunk the troop transport, killing nearly all the Chinese troops onboard.
Destruction of the Kwang-yi at the Battle of Pungdo Island, July 25, 1894
Four days after the Chinese loss at Pungdo, an outnumbered and isolated Chinese detachment in Asan was defeated at the Battle of Seonghwan. In September, the Chinese lost the Battle of Pyongyang, as well as a decisive naval defeat at the Battle of the Yalu River. These two losses forced Chinese troops to withdraw completely from the Korean peninsula and retreat into Manchuria.
A few weeks later in October 1894, Japan invaded Manchuria and pushed Chinese troops back across the Shandong Peninsula capturing Port Arthur (Lüshunkou) in November 1894 and Weihaiwei in February 1995. This gave Japan control of the approaches to Beijing and the Qing Dynasty began suing for peace in February 1895.
Despite nearly resolving their differences through negotiation in mid-1894, the Chinese abandoned negotiations to push for military control over Korea. At the time, the Qing were confident that the military modernization programs they had initiated after the Taiping Rebellion would give them a significant advantage. This overconfidence persuaded Qing leaders that they could use aggression to achieve their objectives.
Of course, Japan had been pursuing their own military modernization program and unbeknownst to their Chinese counterparts, Tokyo had been much more successful (their military leaders weren’t as corrupt as those on the Chinese side). When Qing aggression threatened Tokyo, they forced Japan to wage a war to protect their interests. The Qing had thought their size and standing as a great power would allow them to dominate the smaller Japan.
Things went very different.
In just six months, the Chinese suffered multiple defeats on land and at sea and by April, the Qing were forced to sign the Treaty of Shimonoseki. Japan demanded that China pay for Japanese losses, cede Taiwan to Japan, and give up influence on the Korean peninsula. Within 16 years of this humiliating loss, the Qing dynasty collapsed, ending nearly four millennia of dynastic rule in China.
By pushing to re-establish its dominance over Korea, the Qing dynasty lost much more than they ever could have gained (I suspect this is one of the reasons why Chinese Communist Party historians are so reluctant to publish the official history of this time period).
Rather than threatening its neighbors with war and destruction, Chinese Communist Party leaders would be much better served by pursuing good faith negotiations and figure out how it can compromise with others. They should start this effort to negotiate by meeting with the elected leaders of Taiwan without pre-conditions.
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Thanks for reading!
Matt
MUST READ
GM wants parts makers to pull supply chains from China
Mike Colias, Reuters, November 12, 2025
General Motors has directed several thousand of its suppliers to scrub their supply chains of parts from China, four people familiar with the matter said, reflecting automakers’ growing frustration over geopolitical disruptions to their operations.
GM executives have been telling suppliers they should find alternatives to China for their raw materials and parts, with the goal of eventually moving their supply chains out of the country entirely, the people said. The automaker has set a 2027 deadline for some suppliers to dissolve their China sourcing ties, some of the sources said.
GM approached some suppliers with the directive in late 2024, but the effort took on fresh urgency this past spring, during the early days of an escalating U.S.-China trade battle, the sources said. GM executives have said it is part of a broader strategy to improve the company’s supply chain “resiliency,” the sources said.
Geopolitical tensions between the two superpowers have left car executives in triage mode throughout 2025. U.S. President Donald Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs and bouts of industry panic over potential rare-earth bottlenecks and computer-chip shortages have auto companies rethinking their ties to China, long an important source of parts and raw materials.
COMMENT – Apparently, GM wasn’t blindsided by the rare earth and permanent magnet embargos by the PRC earlier this year… even as Ford was caught flat-footed and begged the White House for relief.
It would be great if all companies could follow GM’s lead.
But apparently some French companies are pursuing the opposite.
Renault seeking Chinese rare-earth-free motor supplier, sources say
Gilles Guillaume, Reuters, November 10, 2025
France’s Renault has ended a project with Valeo (VLOF.PA), opens new tab to develop a new rare-earth-free electric vehicle motor and is looking instead for a cheaper Chinese supplier, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.
Automakers including Renault, General Motors, and suppliers such as ZF, BorgWarner, and Valeo have been developing EV motors which do not require rare earths.
Why Factories Will Keep Looking for Alternatives to China
Alexandra Stevenson, New York Times, November 12, 2025
A trade truce between the United States and China has calmed nerves, but it won’t stop the broader movement of companies to countries like Vietnam.
When President Trump started a trade war with China during his first term, Simon Lichtenberg decided to ride it out. He owned factories making leather sofas in China since the 1990s and figured the two sides would resolve the dispute.
He doesn’t think that anymore. Mr. Lichtenberg invested around $20 million to move his factory for American clients to Vietnam this year. Now, not even the cease-fire Mr. Trump has reached with China has changed his outlook that deep-seated animosity between the countries has altered the economics of his business.
China’s scale and abundant labor turned it into a factory juggernaut for decades, placing it firmly at the heart of the global economy. But Mr. Trump is tearing down the system that allowed manufacturers to seek out the most efficient supply chains. At the same time, China has doubled down on making itself less reliant on the U.S. economy.
Mr. Trump’s latest deal to cut some new tariffs placed on China has not reversed those trends. It has underscored the volatility of the U.S.-China relationship.
U.S. House Select Committee on Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party, November 12, 2025
Given the dire implications of the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s) unprecedented restrictions on critical minerals exports and recent establishment of a comprehensive rare earths export control regime, the Select Committee sought to better understand PRC’s stranglehold on mining and refining capabilities. As described in this report, the PRC government, under the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), has engaged in a coordinated, decades‐long scheme to control different critical minerals and bend the global market to their will. The PRC’s domination of critical minerals stems from its view of minerals in geostrategic terms, not as typical market commodities. Former PRC paramount leader Deng Xiaoping captured the PRC’s strategic view of rare earths with the 1992 quote “There is oil in the Middle East, there is rare earth in China.”
This approach boils down to a difference between the perspectives that each society holds on commerce. The United States has a long tradition of allowing businesses to compete in the marketplace largely free from government direction. The PRC does not. The United States desires a world where minerals are an economic resource addressed by businesses in the marketplace and local communities where these resources are extracted. The PRC does not. The United States believes in fair competition between companies. The PRC does not.
U.S. Tax Dollars Funded Chinese Lab Researching How to Dominate Rare Earth Trade
Natalie Winters, November 11, 2025
American taxpayer funds have supported research at a leading Chinese Communist Party-owned laboratory central to Beijing’s push to monopolize control over rare earths.
The State Key Laboratory of Rare Earth Materials Chemistry and Applications (SKL-REMCA) at Peking University is one of the regime’s most important arms of its scientific apparatus and has been central to China’s rise as the global leader in rare-earth processing. It operates under the supervision of China’s Ministry of Science and Technology and Ministry of Education, both explicitly tasked with advancing projects tied to China’s “national strategic needs.”
Despite this conflict of interest, U.S. federal funding from institutions including the Office of Naval Research, Department of Energy, and National Science Foundation have supported research conducted at SKL-REMCA.
Research into rare earth conducted under the Hundred Talents Program, a controversial program flagged by the U.S. government for its contributions to espionage and aiding China in winning the technology race.
COMMENT – Could we please just stop doing stupid shit like this?
America’s Chip Restrictions Are Biting in China
Lingling Wei, Wall Street Journal, November 11, 2025
Shortages of advanced AI chips are so acute that Beijing is intervening and tech companies are resorting to workarounds.
Beijing is taking an aggressive approach to help its technology giants squeezed by America’s chip restrictions.
Shortages of advanced semiconductors are so acute that the government has begun intervening in how the output of China’s largest contract chip maker, Semiconductor Manufacturing International, is distributed, according to people familiar with the matter. Chinese authorities are trying to give priority to the needs of tech conglomerate and national champion Huawei Technologies, which uses SMIC technology to make artificial-intelligence chips, the people said.
Chinese tech companies are fighting to secure limited domestic capacity and, in some cases, labs are smuggling coveted supplies of high-performance Nvidia chips.
Buzzy AI upstart DeepSeek had to delay the release of its latest model earlier this year because of a shortage of chips, people familiar with its operations said. And companies such as Huawei are cobbling together workarounds, including by bundling thousands of chips into huge, power-hungry systems that can help train AI models, people familiar with their moves said.
The lengths to which Chinese companies and Beijing are going in the face of recent U.S. export restrictions are a sign of the stakes in the race for AI supremacy.
Top U.S. officials are divided on whether to continue limiting China’s access to chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment, or allow more sales. Their goal is to prevent chips made by Huawei from becoming more advanced and in demand around the world. The White House’s decision has ramifications at home—for companies such as Nvidia—and abroad.
How a Chinese AI Company Worked Around U.S. Rules to Access Nvidia’s Top Chips
Liza Lin and Stu Woo, Wall Street Journal, November 12, 2025
In Indonesia, semiconductors covered by U.S. export controls are ready to help a Shanghai-based group.
President Trump made clear earlier this month that he doesn’t want Nvidia selling its most advanced artificial-intelligence chips to China.
But inside a tall, windowless building in Indonesia’s capital, about 2,300 of those chips are ready to do work for a Chinese AI company.
A Wall Street Journal investigation traced how a chain of deals across several countries got the chips inside the data center, which is wedged between a private school and an upscale apartment complex. A company that arranged the transaction is a subsidiary of a Chinese business on an American trade blacklist.
Despite American rules intended to stop China from accessing the tech industry’s most coveted hardware, there is no evidence to suggest the deals violated U.S. law.
Some former and current U.S. national-security officials say the U.S. should review deals such as the Jakarta one. Nvidia and other tech companies argue for fewer export controls, saying it is better to have the rest of the world hooked on American technology and financing American innovation.
Xi Jinping’s purge of military officers raises doubts about China’s readiness for war
Kathrin Hille, Financial Times, November 14, 2025
Analysts link removal of top commanders to change in People’s Liberation Army operations near Taiwan.
When Xi Jinping presided over the lavish commissioning of China’s newest aircraft carrier this month, three officers expected to be crucial to the naval chain of command were strangely absent.
State television footage showed no sign of navy commander Admiral Hu Zhongming or Admiral Wu Yanan, commander of the southern theatre that includes the island of Hainan where the commissioning took place. The regional command’s political commissar Admiral Wang Wenquan was also missing.
The absences came amid a new wave of removals of People’s Liberation Army officers by Xi that shows the president’s purge is embroiling large numbers of figures with vital command roles, fuelling speculation over the impact on how the military trains and whether it is ready to fight.
“They are trying to keep up appearances, but it is definitely having an effect on the PLA’s frontline operations,” said a US official briefed on the matter, adding that experts who did not perceive such an impact were probably suffering from an “an intelligence gap”.
The absence in Hainan of the three admirals came just weeks after Beijing announced the firing of 10 other senior PLA officers, including He Weidong, formerly the military’s third in command, who was quietly purged in April.
Admirals Hu and Wu were among 27 senior PLA officers who were missing from a crucial gathering of the Communist party’s central committee last month, absences that accounted for 64 per cent of its members with a military background. Most of those missing are thought to be under investigation or have already been confirmed as having lost their jobs or party membership.
The heads of all but one of the PLA’s five regional commands are currently unaccounted for, are under investigation or have been fired. The navy and the ground force have followed the rocket force in having their commanders targeted. The heads of several specialised departments under the Central Military Commission, the top command organ led by Xi, have disappeared from public view. And scores of political commissars have been ousted or are under some form of party investigation.
Since the ousting of He, the military number three, analysts have observed marked changes in its manoeuvres around Taiwan — the region where Beijing is believed to be most likely to take military action and where it has been training its forces hardest.
Since May, the Chinese military has been sending many fewer fighter jets directly across the Taiwan Strait’s median line than in the same period last year. Since July, overall monthly numbers of PLA aircraft flying close to Taiwan airspace have also dropped off compared to 2024.
COMMENT – You know which country doesn’t have corrupt military leaders? Japan
Beijing might keep that in mind the next time they consider threatening Japan with devastating military attacks.
VIDEO – The Man Who Stole America’s Most Valued Secret
Blackfiles, October 14, 2025
In 2014, law enforcement agencies arrested Su Bin and found hundreds of thousands of stolen Boeing and Lockheed files, including radar signatures and design specs that helped Beijing accelerate stealth fighter development. This is the true story of how one man’s quiet espionage operation delivered F-35 secrets to the PRC and led the taking of Canadian hostages by Beijing to coerce Canada into releasing Su Bin.
France’s Macron Has Floated Idea of a G-7 Invite for Xi Jinping Next Year
Samy Adghirni, Jenny Leonard, and Alberto Nardelli, Reuters, November 12, 2025
Emmanuel Macron is thinking about inviting Chinese President Xi Jinping to the 2026 Group of Seven summit in France and the idea has been discussed with some allies, according to people familiar with the matter.
It comes with the French leader considering plans to travel to China in December, said the people, who asked not to be named discussing internal deliberations. In response to a request for comment, officials at Macron’s Elysee Palace said France wants to engage with major emerging nations that are willing to help tackle global imbalances.
COMMENT – Emmanuel Macron has had some pretty nutty ideas… but this one takes the cake.
Authoritarianism
From beaches to ski slopes, photos show how cameras keep watch all over China
Ng Han Guan, The Independent, November 5, 2025Beijing Banner Protester: “Establish a New China That is Free, Humane, and Governed by Rule of Law”
Samuel Wade, China Digital Times, November 4, 2025
The image above shows a one-man protest that reportedly took place at the high-end Taikoo Li Sanlitun mall (formerly Sanlitun Village) in Beijing on October 25, shortly after the end of the Party’s Fourth Plenum. Another circulating photograph appears to show the confiscated banners being taken away, but the current situation of the protester is unclear. The incident is the latest in a series of banner protests carried out in recent years by so-called “warriors” who have variously disappeared into custody, escaped the country, or remained unknown.
CDT Chinese editors noted censorship of the following combinations on Weibo in the wake of the incident: “Sanlitun + lift the ban on political parties”, “Sanlitun + protest”, “Sanlitun + warrior”, “Fourth Plenum + Sanlitun”, and “Teacher Li is not your teacher + Sanlitun” (referring to the Italy-based microblogger Li Ying, who has been a key channel of information on this and other protests). Several of these were also blocked on various Baidu platforms, along with “Sitong Bridge + Sanlitun”, “cult + Sanlitun”, and “anti-human + Sanlitun”.
China’s new growth is a gamble with an old playbook
Dinny McMahon and David Tingxuan Zhang, Hinrich Foundation, November 4, 2025
Battle over Chinese chip maker rocks global car industry
Suranjana Tewari, BBC, November 10, 2025
China suspends ban on rare earth exports to the U.S., but licensing controls remain — vital semiconductor manufacturing materials get one-year reprieve
Luke James, Tom’s Hardware, November 10, 2025
China Hatches Plan to Keep U.S. Military from Getting Its Rare-Earth Magnets
Jon Emont and Raffaele Huang, Wall Street Journal, November 10, 2025
Chinese goods dumping started before tariffs, ECB study finds
Reuters, November 11, 2025
Tanker Spoofing Its Location Seen Taking Sanctioned LNG to China
Stephen Stapczynski, Bloomberg, November 10, 2025
2 Hong Kong men held in custody after being charged with conspiring to incite others to riot in 2019 protests
Hillary Leung, Hong Kong Free Press, October 30, 2025
Hong Kong diaspora groups call on UK government to take firm stance on China
Hong Kong Watch, November 3, 20254 nabbed for allegedly damaging Hong Kong ‘patriots only’ legislative poll posters, campaign flag
Kelly Ho, Hong Kong Free Press, November 5, 2025
Kelly Ho, Hong Kong Free Press, November 7, 2025
A 45-year-old man was apprehended for alleged theft and criminal damage after police received a tip-off on Wednesday morning that nine posters that were put up outside a building in To Kwa Wan had disappeared. One poster was damaged.
Police identified the suspect after reviewing surveillance camera footage and detained him outside the same building in the afternoon. He is currently held in police custody pending investigation.
Separately, police arrested a 71-year-old man on Wednesday afternoon in connection with two damaged LegCo election posters found on the ground of the Tsing Luk Street pedestrian footbridge in Tsing Yi.
The suspect was arrested for alleged criminal damage and is currently detained by the police for investigation.
Police warned that criminal damage and theft were serious offences that are punishable by up to 10 years in prison.
COMMENT – 10 years in prison for putting a campaign poster up upside down… sounds about right in a dystopian totalitarian state.
Takaichi Defends Taiwan Views After China Envoy’s Violent Threat
Sakura Murakami and James Mayger, Bloomberg, November 9, 2025
In Cozying Up to Trump, Leaders Hedge Their Reliance on Moscow and Beijing
Anton Troianovski, Paul Sonne, and Ana Swanson, New York Times, November 8, 2025
China, Surveillance, and Civil Society in Cyberspace
Human Rights in China, November 10, 2025
How China Reached Into New York to Stop a Tiny Film Festival
Vivian Wang, New York Times, November 11, 2025
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China Suspends Export Controls on More Critical Minerals
Keith Bradsher, New York Times, November 9, 2025
Honda’s bigger threat comes from China’s EV makers, not tariffs or chips
Daniel Leussink and Maki Shiraki, Reuters, November 10, 2025
Environmental Harms
A Flood of Green Tech from China Is Upending Global Climate Politics
Somini Sengupta and Brad Plumer, New York Times, November 10, 2025
UN climate summit looks to China as latest data shows flat emissions trend
Attracta Mooney and Kenza Bryan, Financial Times, November 10, 2025
China, Brazil Aim to Be Climate Leaders and Keep Polluting Too
Coco Liu and Lili Pike, Bloomberg, November 11, 2025
The host of COP30 and the world’s top emitter seek to be green champions, while also drilling for more oil.
Brazil President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva flexed his country’s green credentials last week when he had world leaders escorted to this year’s climate summit, hosted in the Amazonian city of Belém, by a fleet of custom-made electric vehicles.
But his entreaty as host of COP30 to “end dependence on fossil fuel” jarred with his simultaneous call to fund Brazil’s energy transition through the continued expansion of its oil industry.
China is deeply entwined in Brazil’s attempts to do both at the same time. It was China’s automakers that provided Lula with the squadron of sleek electric cars, and China’s state-owned oil company that won a sizable share of the exploration rights to the Amazonian oil.
Brazil and China have jointly championed climate action in recent years, as part of a move to reduce their own climate vulnerability and raise their international profiles. With US President Donald Trump withdrawing from global cooperation and the world seeking new sources of leadership, their moment has come. Yet the two countries offer a different tone — emphasizing the Global South’s right to develop and putting the onus on richer nations to achieve tougher emissions cuts.
The two nations’ continued development of oil “will affect their leadership” in COP30 negotiations to phase out fossil fuels, said Li Shuo, the director of China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute. Their oil ties are only one entry in a mixed climate record that is bound to complicate talks in Belém.
COMMENT – I’m forced to post this again.
China’s Latest Climate Pledges Fall Short of What’s Needed at COP30
Alice C. Hill and Mia Beams, Council on Foreign Relations, November 10, 2025
The latest nationally determined contributions (NDCs) from Beijing promises to reduce emissions for the first time, but the country’s commitments still far short of what experts say will be needed to keep global climate warming from rising above 1.5°C.
In September, Chinese President Xi Jinping unveiled China’s updated nationally determined contribution (NDC) for 2035. Under this climate action plan, which each country is committed to submitting every five years under the 2015 Paris Agreement, China pledged to start cutting total emissions from their highest point by 2035, boost clean energy to about 30 percent of its energy use, expand wind and solar power, increase forest growth, and stay on track for climate neutrality before 2060.
Given that China by far is the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gasses, its NDC was panned as weak by various commentators, including environmental groups, government negotiators, and think tanks. While Beijing’s lack of ambition highlights the challenge of generating sufficient action within the UN climate accord process, it also increases the risk that other nations will be similarly unambitious in their commitments.
Foreign Interference and Coercion
China-critical UK academics describe ‘extremely heavy’ pressure from Beijing
Sally Weale, The Guardian, November 6, 2025
Reliance on overseas students’ tuition fees under scrutiny as scholars describe chilling effect of being targeted.
UK academics whose research is critical of China say they have been targeted and their universities subjected to “extremely heavy” pressure from Beijing, prompting calls for a fresh look at the sector’s dependence on tuition fee income from Chinese students.
The academics spoke out after the Guardian revealed this week that Sheffield Hallam University had complied with a demand from Beijing to halt research about human rights abuses in China, which had led to a big project being dropped.
One UK-based China scholar has since described being a victim of death threats and a smear campaign, while another was sanctioned for her work on human rights abuses against Uyghur Muslims and can no longer travel to China to conduct her research.
COMMENT – This seems like an issue that Starmer’s Government should do something about.
UK scales back scientific collaboration with China
Eleanor Olcott in Beijing and Michael Peel, Financial Times, November 10, 2025
Michigan National Guard chief reports ‘constant probing’ by Chinese nationals at bases
Michael Kransz, Mlive, November 6, 2025
When five Chinese nationals were caught allegedly taking photos near classified military equipment at Camp Grayling in Northern Michigan in 2023, it wasn’t an isolated incident.
Instead, it’s part of a “constant probing” of military installations, the head of the Michigan National Guard told state lawmakers Wednesday, Nov. 5.
“The People’s Republic of China are very active in their information gathering, intelligence collection,” said Major General Paul D. Rogers, the adjutant general of the Michigan National Guard. “You see it through businesses, you see it through military sites, training. It’s not uncommon. I’d almost say it’s pretty routine for Chinese nationals ... to be tasked to go somewhere and actively try to get onto a base, a military base, try to gain entry into a restricted area, and if they get entry, to collect certain pieces of information, whatever it may be of interest.
“But it’s fairly routine and well established that this is an active, ongoing – I’ll use the word ‘operation’ – on their part.”
Rogers gave those remarks before the Michigan House Committee on Homeland Security and Foreign Influence, where he was slated to talk about homeland security issues facing the state.
Rogers mentioned an incident last year, when two Chinese nationals arrived at Selfridge Air National Guard Base in Macomb County and told the guards they were interested in going to the military air museum located on the base.
The pair was turned away because they weren’t allowed to have access, Rogers said. Rogers acknowledged it could have been a benign interest in military aircraft but said the pair’s return three days later suggested otherwise.
“The fact that those same two individuals showed up three days later at the same gate hoping to find a guard that would not be doing their due diligence and tried to gain access again using the exact same excuse – it’s a constant probing,” Rogers said. “And it’s a little cat and mouse and they’re not breaking any laws, right? So there’s nothing that can be done about it. But, you know, it’s not with good intent.”
The incident at Camp Grayling, the training facility for the Michigan Army National Guard in northern Michigan, happened during a training exercise in August 2023.
About 7,000 military officials, including some from Taiwan, were participating in the live firing exercises. China has consistently challenged Taiwan’s sovereignty.
An FBI complaint against the five Chinese nationals – all University of Michigan students at the time – alleges they were found on the base property taking photos near classified equipment and soldiers sleeping in tents. The group was told to leave.
An investigation was launched and the students were interrogated. While they weren’t charged with espionage, they were charged with conspiracy, making false statements to investigators and destroying records during the federal investigation.
Those charges were filed Oct. 1, 2024, months after the students – Zhekai Xu, Renxiang Guan, Haoming Zhu, Jingzhe Tao and Yi Liang – left the country after graduating that May from UM.
Rogers said the students were able to be identified thanks to cooperation between federal, state and local agencies and the establishment of a process for “tracking activities.”
“That’s how we were able to detect those five individuals in the course of trying to collect on training that was going on up at Grayling,” he said. “And it was through those channels that ultimately fed back to an FBI investigation that identified them by name and then worked through the legal system to put warrants out for them.”
Incidents like those at Camp Grayling aren’t unique to Michigan. In 2021, UM students from China were caught photographing military and naval infrastructure at Naval Air Station Key West in Florida. They were convicted of illegally photographing military installations and sentenced to prison, federal records show.
“This is not unusual. It’s happening everywhere,” Rogers said of the Camp Grayling incident. “And I think folks would probably be a little shocked to see how frequently that’s going on.”
The Camp Grayling incident is one of four federal cases since October 2024 involving UM students from China. Experts have told MLive that there’s a “pattern emerging” with these UM cases.
On Oct. 27, 2024, UM student Haoxiang Gao cast a ballot at an early voting site in Ann Arbor days before the November general election despite not being a U.S. citizen. Gao left the country and faces additional federal charges for fleeing the U.S. to avoid prosecution.
In June of this year, authorities unsealed a federal criminal complaint against UM doctoral student Yunqing Jian and her boyfriend Zunyong Liu.
They are accused of conspiring to defraud the United States and smuggling a fungal pathogen called Fusarium graminearum into the country. The pathogen causes rot and “head blight” to cereal crops. It is considered an agroterrorism weapon, according to the journal Food Security.
Also in June, a doctoral student at a Wuhan university was arrested in Michigan and charged with allegedly smuggling goods into the U.S. and making false statements.
That doctoral student, Chengxuan Han, is accused of sending four packages from China to the U.S. that contained nematode growth medium, or NGM.
NGM is a nutrient-rich, agar-based material used to cultivate nematode worms in petri dishes. Nematodes are a kind of roundworm. The packages, according to the complaint, were addressed to people associated with a UM lab.
Jordyn Haime, Lingua Sinica, November 6, 2025
A deep-dive into the China trip of Taiwanese influencer Holger Chen exposes the sophisticated network of state-linked influencers and media outlets driving China’s push for cross-strait influence.
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China Complains to European Parliament Over Taiwan VP’s Speech
Bloomberg, November 11, 2025
Swiss Light Show Removes Tibet Segment After “Too Political” Label
Tenzin Chokyi, Tibet Express, October 30, 2025
French Minister Urges Caution on Europe’s Relations with China
Kriti Gupta, Kamil Kowalcze, and Samy Adghirni, Bloomberg, November 11, 2025
China’s new scientist visa is a ‘serious bid’ for the world’s top talent
Xiaoying You, Nature, November 11, 2025
Human Rights and Religious Persecution
NGOs demand immediate and unconditional release of Chow Hang-tung and Lee Cheuk-yan
Human Rights in China, October 29, 2025
China pursues Hong Kong activists abroad: ‘My life has changed totally’
Kenji Kawase, Nikkei Asia, November 10, 2025
Joseph Tay and Dennis Kwok, on separate visits to Japan, warn of threat to democracies.
Joseph Tay King-kei, a former Hong Kong actor turned activist and politician who now lives in Canada, remembers that he was watching a Korean drama at home in Toronto with his wife Angie when his life was upended.
It was Christmas Eve in 2024 when Hong Kong’s national security police placed a bounty on his head, worth 1 million Hong Kong dollars ($128,000). Tay had been a vocal critic of Chinese authorities in Hong Kong, especially since the pro-democracy protests of 2019 and the ensuing crackdown, including the imposition of a strict national security law by Beijing in 2020.
His phone, he said, blew up with over a hundred messages, not wishing him a merry Christmas but expressing concern about the bounty.
“My life has changed totally,” Tay told Nikkei Asia during a brief visit to Japan earlier this month.
Since the national security law was implemented, Hong Kong police have issued a series of international arrest warrants for individuals residing abroad. So far, none of the 34 individuals placed on the wanted list have been turned in. Nevertheless, they are under intense pressure, even if they live in a democratic country like Canada, as alleged transnational repression by China spreads.
Tay and five other pro-democracy activists living abroad -- Tony Chung Hon-lam, Chung Kim-wah, Carmen Lau Ka-man, Victor Ho Leung-mau and Chloe Cheung Hei-ching -- were charged under the law and subjected to bounties the same day. Tay, who spoke out via his online platform HongKonger Station, is accused of inciting secession and for colluding with foreign forces, two of the four crimes that became punishable under the vaguely worded law. The two others are subversion and terrorist activities.
After the announcement, Tay said he felt “more isolated” as he thought people in his community were “looking at him differently.” At the time, he was aiming to win a seat in the Canadian federal election that was ultimately held in April 2025, in a Toronto district with a heavy concentration of ethnic Chinese voters.
He became a target of online harassment, mainly in Chinese, prompting police to provide his family with 24-hour protection during the campaign. The Conservative Party for which he ran suffered a sweeping defeat to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals, but Tay is convinced that the attacks contributed to his own loss, as he believes many voters were afraid of being targeted by Chinese authorities if they showed support.
Angie said that people avoided donating to his campaign -- which had to be done online for record-keeping purposes -- out of fear of retribution.
“Transnational repression is not only real, but aggressive and sophisticated,” Tay said. According to the couple, relatives who still live in Hong Kong were also affected, as Tay’s cousin and his wife were taken in by the police and asked to assist with the investigation against Tay.
Dennis Kwok Wing-hang, a former pro-democracy Hong Kong lawmaker who was placed on the wanted list and hit with an HK$1 million bounty before Tay, has also felt the heat in Canada. Despite being a Canadian citizen, Kwok told Nikkei in Tokyo in late October that he has moved to the U.S. with his family because he feels safer there.
Kwok was virtually forced to flee Hong Kong in November 2020, and became stateless at one point, as his passport was canceled by the city. He was subsequently able to reinstate his Canadian citizenship, which he had surrendered to run for office in Hong Kong in 2016.
Apple Pulls China’s Top Gay Dating Apps After Government Order
Zeyi Yang, Wired, November 10, 2025Voice of Tibet, November 6, 2025
Human Rights in China, November 7, 2025
Industrial Policies and Economic Espionage
Can the US break China’s grip on rare earths?
Camilla Hodgson, et al., Financial Times, November 9, 2025US software firm SAS exits China after 25 years, lays off about 400 staff
Wendy Chen, South China Morning Post, October 31, 2025
US software company SAS Institute has withdrawn from mainland China and dismissed its local staff, according to a Beijing-based employee affected by the move, as the analytics specialist ended more than two decades of operations amid intense domestic competition and geopolitical tensions.
The company on Thursday announced the lay-offs via an email and hosted a short video call, in which executives thanked local employees for their contribution and cited “organisational optimisation” for the exit, according to the employee.
“SAS is ceasing direct business operations in China,” an SAS spokeswoman said on Friday in response to the Post’s inquiry. “This decision reflects a broader shift in how we operate globally, optimising our footprint and ensuring long-term sustainability.”
Chinese automakers are overtaking European rivals, says car-shipping chief
Jamie John, Financial Times, November 8, 2025
China’s biopharma boom echoes EV industry’s success and stresses
Lorretta Chen, Nikkei Asia, November 10, 2025
China Is Already Pulling Ahead on the Next Energy Supply Chain
Jane Nakano, Foreign policy, November 10, 2025
China to Resume Nexperia Chip Exports, Dutch PM Schoof Says
Arne Delfs, Bloomberg, November 7, 2025
China Resumes Some Chip Exports, Easing Fears of a Global Crunch
Melissa Eddy, New York Times, November 7, 2025
China Tightens Controls on Fentanyl Precursors After Summit
Meaghan Tobin and Xinyun Wu, New York Times, November 10, 2025
The True Cost of China’s Falling Prices
Bloomberg, November 9, 2025
Tesla’s China sales fall to 3-year low amid tepid demand
Reuters, November 10, 2025
Halt in Fees on Chinese Vessels Endangers U.S. Shipbuilding Efforts
Peter Eavis, New York Times, November 11, 2025
Video Shows the Moment Part of a New Bridge in China Fell
Meaghan Tobin and Xinyun Wu, New York Times, November 12, 2025
From rail to nuclear power, China taps private capital to fund major projects
South China Morning Pots, November 11, 2025
US will get a 15% cut of Nvidia and AMD chip sales to China under a new, unusual agreement
Associated Press, August 11, 2025
China Banks Issue Phantom Loans to Hit Targets in Slow Economy
Bloomberg, November 11, 2025
Ex-Airbus Boss Has a Good Idea for How EU Should Deal with China
Lionel Laurent, Bloomberg, November 11, 2025
Beijing insiders’ plan to play Donald Trump
The Economist, November 11, 2025
Cyber and Information Technology
Cheap and Open Source, Chinese AI Models Are Taking Off
Rachel Cheung, The Wire China, November 9, 2025
In whose tech we trust: Part I – Mapping Indo-Pacific security approaches to foreign owned, controlled or influenced technology
Justin Basi, et al., The Strategist, November 10, 2025
The AI Cold War That Will Redefine Everything
Josh Chin and Raffaele Huang, Wall Street Journal, November 10, 2025
In China, the Dream of Outrunning Time
Andrew Higgins, New York Times, November 8, 2025
China’s top memory chip maker YMTC to build 3rd plant, eyeing 2027 start
Cheng Tingfang, Nikkei Asia, November 11, 2025
Huawei flags $630m in revenue from licensing patents and technology
Lauly Li and Cheng Ting-fang, Nikkei Asia, November 11, 2025Arendse Huld, China Briefing, November 5, 2025
Military and Security Threats
China’s most advanced aircraft carrier enters service in challenge to US
Kathrin Hille, Financial Times, November 7, 2025
The digital battlefield around Australia’s South China Sea patrols
Fitriani and Astrid Young, Aspi Strategist, November 10, 2025
Australia and Indonesia announce new security treaty
Kirsty Needham, Reuters, November 12, 2025
Xi’s Military Purges Show Unease About China’s Nuclear Forces
David Pierson, New York Times, November 12, 2025
One Belt, One Road Strategy
How the US overtook China as Africa’s biggest foreign investor
Egon Cossou, BBC, November 10, 2025
Thai king’s historic state visit to China signals closer ties
Panu Wongcha-um, Reuters, November 11, 2025
King Felipe heads to China for more Spanish courtship
Charlie Devereux and Aislinn Laing, Reuters, November 11, 2025
King Felipe VI will start the first state visit to China by a Spanish monarch in 18 years on Tuesday as Madrid pursues the most active courtship of Beijing within the European Union.
The four-day trip, coinciding with the 20th anniversary of high-level bilateral relations, should further cement business and political interests with China at a time when Spain’s ties with the world’s other superpower, the U.S., are souring.
Felipe, accompanied by Foreign Minister Jose Maria Albares, Economy Minister Carlos Cuerpo and a phalanx of Spanish businesspeople, will spend Tuesday in the city of Chengdu before meetings in Beijing on Wednesday with President Xi Jinping, Premier Li Qiang and top legislator Zhao Leji.
The king’s visit follows three trips by Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez in as many years in a strategy by Madrid to rebalance trade relations skewed in favour of Beijing.
Spain imported 45 billion euros ($52.5 billion) of goods from China in 2024 while it exported just 7.5 billion euros, according to state trade agency ICEX.
COMMENT – So let me get this straight… Spain buys 45 billion euros worth of goods from the PRC each year and the PRC only buys 7.5 billion euros worth of goods from Spain each year.
This means the Spanish are paying 37.5 billion euros a year to the PRC… and Madrid is the one begging for a good relationship with Beijing.
If the trade relationship was reversed, I could understand why the Spanish King would be in Beijing bending the knee, but its not. Spanish citizens (about 50 million of them) buy a shit-tom more from the PRC, than the 1.3 billion Chinese citizens buy from Spain.
What on earth does Spain get from this relationship?
Couldn’t some of Spain’s own citizens produce some of the goods that Beijing dumps on the European market? Those could be good jobs for Spanish citizens and it would encourage further international investment in Spanish infrastructure and Spanish manufacturing capacity… instead Spanish leaders chose to export the wealth of their citizens to Beijing.
Opinion
Why BYD can’t do for China what Ford did for America
Bobby Ghosh, Rest of World, November 11, 2025
Rhetoric vs. Reality: The Philippines, ASEAN, and the South China Sea
Monica Sato, CSIS, November 8, 2025
China’s EV Market Is Imploding
Michael Schuman, The Atlantic, November 11, 2025
The CCP’s Useful Idiots
Robert D. Atkinson, Policy Arena, November 10, 2025
Communist China has never been a peace-loving country
Miles Yu, Washington Times, November 10, 2025
Reasons to be bearish about China’s rise
Rana Foroohar, Financial Times, November 9, 2025
Art of the deal meets great power politics: Trump 2.0’s approach to China
George Yin, MERICS, November 7, 2025
How to curb China’s grip on rare earths
Financial Times, November 7, 2025
This Relationship Will Get Worse
Vermilion China, November 10, 2025
America’s Self-Defeating China Strategy
Lael Brainard, Foreign Affairs, November 10, 2025
ASEAN will struggle to escape US-China squeeze
Manishi Raychaudhuri, Reuters, November 10, 2025
China’s answer to World Bank faces its next test
Una Galani, Reuters, November 12, 2025
China Is Exposing the Fault Lines in British Universities
Matthew Brooker, Bloomberg, November 11, 2025
DeepSeek’s Jobpocalypse Warning Is Bad News for Beijing
Catherine Thorbecke, Bloomberg, November 11, 2025